000
FXUS61 KILN 172312
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
712 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER THERE DOES SEEM TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING TREND.
SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER MOS FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DEFINITE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO CONVECTION. BUT DO EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. BUT STILL A DECENT CHANCE IN THE
NORTH ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO VARY
MUCH FROM A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA ON SUNDAY.  MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.

AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLIER LOW CLOUDS HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO MORE OF A DIURNAL CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT EXPECT THESE TO LIFT UP INTO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS AND PCPN IS ROTATING UP
ACROSS KENTUCKY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
CLOUDS...THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCVG/KLUK.
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE CU FIELD FARTHER
NORTH...STRETCHING FROM NEAR KMIE TO AROUND KILN AND WE MAY
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ALONG THIS LINE TOO. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO
SEE THEM DIE OFF THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS TO
BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR BR LATER
TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES TOO...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT
ON HOW MANY BREAKS EXIST IN THE CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL