Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
648 FXUS61 KILN 051740 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS ARE PUSHING DOWN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OHIO. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. HAVE THEREFORE MADE SOME UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT TO SEE THE AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CENTRAL FA FILL IN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED...HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL SATURDAY. THE DOWNWARD MOTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY BUT HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AM NOT SOLD ON THE FRI PM PRECIP AS THE H5 PATTERN SHOWS A SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE BUILDING IN. SATURDAY RAIN IS BEING SHOWN AS MUCH MORE ROBUST WHEN LOOKING AT SEVERAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES AND THE AREA OF RAIN MOVES SOUTH AND AWAY FROM CWA WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT. KEEPING A GENERALLY COOL FORECAST WITH A DECENT BUMP IN HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY...LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. DID NOT SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY CONTAINING THUNDER WITH DEEP FORCING EXITING THE AREA. SATURDAY THE THUNDER WAS ALSO KEPT OUT AS THE MEAN H5 RIDGE WOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONT STALLED OUT IN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD POPS UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON SUNDAY. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. WAA OVER THE FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY. HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY...PUSHING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS ARE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD START TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING AN AXIS OF 850 MB MOISTURE HANGING BACK ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA AND OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LINGERING...PRIMARILY VFR...SC THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL COVER THIS WITH A SCT CLOUD GROUP BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CIGS GO BKN FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...JGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.