Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 272040 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 440 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPLITTING THE FA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM NE INDIANA INTO NW OHIO. FARTHER S...CONVECTION IN CNTL KY IS JUST BRUSHING THE NRN KY COUNTIES. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THAT THE CONVECTION OVER INDIANA ALONG THE CDFNT IS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST SO FAR AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NRN INDIANA CONVECTION WILL TRY AND WORK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE WHEN IT MAKES IT IN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE WORKING EAST RIGHT NOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE. KEPT POPS ON THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT RISING AGAIN INTO NRN KY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN LATE THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD END FROM THE NW. THE FRONT TRIES TO WASH OUT AS IT COMES IN...SO ENDED THE PCPN CHANCES BY 06Z. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE FRONT WORKING IN...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE NW. SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S FOR LOWS THERE. DOWN THE SOUTH LOWER TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...

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