Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171746 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 146 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE LATEST RAP MODEL...COMPARED TO THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING...SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALSO...IT IS MIXING THE AIRMASS THROUGH 850 MB BY LATE AFTN. THIS DEEPER MIXING...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL APPROACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN IN/IL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL BE DRY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START OFF TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THERE. THE WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD WEAKENING THIS MOISTURE STARVED FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE AND WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING ITS CHARACTERISTICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION....AND THE CANADIAN HIGH BEHIND THE LOW FAILS TO BUILD TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL OF THESE FACTORS DO NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY DECENT POPS...AND THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE GENEROUS FOR THIS FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL ZONES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY MAY BE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE COUNTERACTING NATURE OF THE HEIGHT RISES AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE YET ANOTHER DAY OF MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH...THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE 60 AS COOLER AIR IS DRAWN ACROSS THOSE ZONES FROM LAKE ERIE. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE RETURN FLOW AND BUILDING 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE FRONT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING EXIST...WITH GFS FASTER AND ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND...WHICH YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH MODELS SHOWING SCANT INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT...DECIDED TO OMIT THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE IN THE NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS IT DOES...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED. AS SUCH...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AS IT CROSSES THE TAF SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR 5000 FOOT CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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