Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300615 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 215 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... DIURNAL CU HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. THINK MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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IN CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS REGIME SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE LKLY ESPECIALLY ACRS KLUK AND KILN. HAVE LIMITED VSBY RESTRICTION TO MVFR AT KILN WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK. UPPER LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THRU ILN/S AREA TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL VFR CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. HAVE COVERED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MENTION OF VCSH. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ACRS KCMH/KLCK DURG THE AFTN. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY OR KILN BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTN. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR

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