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000
FXUS61 KILN 200821
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
421 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE EAST COAST WITH LITTLE FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING JUST A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS
EACH DAY IN THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A VERY
TIGHT GROUPING IN BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE
PERIOD AND WILL BE HARD TO IMPROVE UPON.

GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING
FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. DAYTIME HEATING PUSHING HIGHS TO
AROUND 90...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
NECESSITATE THE INCLUSION OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THIS IS
THE CASE...THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THESE IS STILL IN HIGH
QUESTION AS THERE IS NOT ANY TRIGGER FOR THE STORMS OTHER THAN
DAYTIME HEATING.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL WORK INTO THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING PRIMARILY THE DAYTIME HOURS.  A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL STILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE TAFS TODAY. SOME SCT CI WILL WORK ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS HI LEVEL MOISTURE SLIPS E OF A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE.

THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT KLUK WAS DOWN TO 1 DEGREE AT 06Z...SO
ADDED THE MENTION OF MVFR FOG THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES