Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241019 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 519 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THERE IS A GENERAL LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FA TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ACROSS THE FA. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE CVG 70 IN 1964...CMH AT 66 IN 1889...AND DAY AT 66 IN 1964. CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES LESS THAN THESE VALUES WITH CVG AT 60...CMH AT 64...AND DAY AT 60. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NW OF THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NNE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR A FEW HOURS. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. DUE TO THIS CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE FA. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL WORK INTO THE FA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN A HALF INCH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL MASS FIELDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. GFS PUSHES FRONT THROUGH TO THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN LINGER THE FRONT NW OF I-71 CORRIDOR IN NW CWA. THEY ALSO KEEP PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS IN DIRECT OPPOSITION TO GFS. OTHER MODELERS SEEM TO JUST BLEND OPPOSING SOLUTIONS TO COME TO MIDDLE GROUND. THIS METHOD JUST DOES NOT WORK AS A VIABLE WAY TO EVOLVE A LONGER RANGE FORECAST. TRIED TO WEIGHT THE FORECAST TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT KNOW THAT THE LONG RANGE WAS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION YESTERDAY. FOR AS OFF AS THE SURFACE FIELDS ARE IN THE MODELS...H5 AND LONGWAVE PATTERN IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND SW FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. GFS BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EURO DEEPENS THE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST FOR THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES...IT IS REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK AND HELP USHER IN COLDER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOWER CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT OR AFTER 12Z. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD THEN DIMINISH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. AND AS WINDS VEER THEY WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH STILL BE QUITE GUSTY. OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ060-061-070>072-077>082-088. WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-062>065-073-074. KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...

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