Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 161847
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
247 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will move southeast across the area tonight,
leading to a chance for a few showers. Behind the front, a
colder airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley for the start
of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An embedded mid level short will rotate through a broader upper
level trough dropping down into the Great Lakes region overnight.
This will help push a cold front southeast across our region
tonight. Moisture is fairly limited, but we will still likely
see a narrow axis of light rain showers shift down across the
area tonight along and ahead of the front, with the highest
pops across northeast portions of our area. Lows tonight will
range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s in the
southeast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak cyclonic flow will persist through the day on Sunday along
with some continued weak CAA. This will lead to skies becoming
partly to mostly cloudy from the north from late morning and
through the afternoon. Highs will range from the lower 40s
northwest to the lower 50s in the southeast.
A secondary mid level short wave will drop down the back side
of the upper level trough Sunday night and approach our region
late. Any pcpn associated with this should remain off to our
northwest but we may start to see some increase in clouds from
the northwest late. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid
30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Shortwave trough axis slides through the Midwest and Ohio Valley on
Monday, maintaining the chances for snow showers throughout the day
and into the evening. Forecast soundings show saturation well within
the DGZ so even if temperatures warm into the upper 30s and lower
40s, all precipitation will be snow and/or graupel.
On Tuesday, a weak low pressure slides through the Great Lakes. This
provides strong southwest winds with wind gusts between 25 and 35
mph Tuesday afternoon. The low pressure slips northeast of the area
Tuesday night with no precipitation expected with the cold front.
Mid and upper level flow remains northwesterly Wednesday and
Thursday keeping temperatures closer to normal as cooler air feeds
in from the north. The overall pattern becomes more zonal to wrap up
the long term period, but a closed low moving into the lower Ohio
Valley and Mid-Atlantic may provide the next chance of
precipitation. Ensemble probabilities continue to focus the greatest
chances across the South and Gulf Coast. Since the Ohio Valley is on
the northern fringe, it is possible that additional trends
southward, like the 00Z ECMWF deterministic run, won`t lead to a
drier forecast in the coming days.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will move southeast across the region tonight.
Breezy southwest winds will persist ahead of the front this
afternoon into this evening with gusts in the 25 to 35 knot
range possible. Scattered light rain showers associated with
the front will affect mainly the central Ohio TAF sites for a
couple hour period tonight. As the front moves through, winds
will become west to northwest overnight with gusts to around 20
knots possible. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible on Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...JGL