Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 201137
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
637 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017
High pressure will drift slowly east across the region today.
Morning fog will give way to afternoon sunshine and warmer
temperatures. A very weak cold front will move through on
Tuesday, allowing for scattered rain showers. The weak front will
wash out in the area as much above normal temperatures continue
through the workweek. Another storm system will bring additional
rain chances toward the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure centered over the region this morning
will shift off to the east as a sharp full latitude ridge builds
into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Mainly clear skies and light
winds have set the stage for a good radiational cooling setup.
With a very moist low level widespread dense fog has developed.
Have expanded the dense fog advisory north to include all of
ILN/s counties through 10 AM.
Expect fog to improve by late morning with mainly high level
cloud in the offering this afternoon. Clouds and a cool start
will initial hold temperatures back early but expect readings to
rise to highs 20 to 25 degrees above normal. These highs to
range from the lower 60s northeast to the upper 60s southwest.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Northern stream upper trough to track through the northern
plains today and though the Great Lakes Tuesday. NAM soln
phases this northern system with a southern upper low and
therefore is a little slower and much more robust with pcpn
event. GFS/ECMWF consensus solns do not phase these systems,
are more progressive and therefore less aggressive with pcpn
event from a weakening frontal system. NAM soln is an outlier
and therefore have followed this blended GFS/ECMWF soln with
clouds increasing tonight but precipitation holding off until
early Tuesday. In waa pattern mild temperatures to continue
tonight with lows from the mid 40s northeast to the lower 50s
With low level jet and associated forcing lifting northeast
through the Great LAkes have gone with likely pops across the
north Tuesday and chance elsewhere. The front pushes into Ohio
and washes out. Expect continued warm readings with highs from
the mid 60s northwest to near 70 southeast.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weakening boundary will be moving east Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with shower chances diminishing. A warm front developing ahead of
low pressure will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm formation
on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely on Friday
when a trailing cold front is forecast to cross the area. There may
be a few strong thunderstorms organized by strong wind fields
associated with the cold front. Mainly dry weather is expected
Saturday and Sunday as a large area of high pressure builds in on a
broad westerly flow aloft.
Temperatures will be well above normal Wednesday through Friday due
to warm advection in the low levels coupled with a ridge aloft.
Highs are forecast to be mainly in the 60s, with lower 70s possible
Friday. Look for readings to retreat closer to normal for Saturday
and Sunday, when cold advection will drop highs back into the 40s to
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Surface high pressure is centered east of TAF sites. Dense FG
has formed in shallow moisture trapped under a subsidence
inversion, resulting in VLIFR conditions.
As mixing erodes the thin saturated layer, models show
improvement to LIFR within one hour of issuance, with MVFR by
16z, and VFR by around 18z.
After conditions rise to VFR, sky cover will consist of mid and
high clouds. Winds will be from the southeast at 7 knots or
For CVG and their 30 hour TAF, VFR is forecast to persist after
12z Tuesday, with south winds around 10 knots. Showers along the
next front should hold off until after 18z Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Record High Temperatures
Date CVG CMH DAY
Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016)
Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930)
Wed 2/22 71(1922) 70(1930) 69(1922)
Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985)
Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961)
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ026-034-
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ050-058-