Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230757 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 257 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move east of the area today, as a weak mid-level wave spread some clouds into the region. Southerly winds will increase going into Friday, in advance of a cold front that will move through the area Friday night. Another area of high pressure will build in over the weekend, persisting into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Surface analysis indicates that a high pressure axis (extending from the southern Mississippi Valley) is extending directly over the ILN CWA. This has led to light winds and a dry boundary layer. Upstream, there is a weakening mid-level trough axis moving into the region. There is actually some warm advection aloft behind this trough, and the ascent associated with it has led to the development of a wide area of mid-level clouds. These clouds will pass through the forecast area today -- thickest in the northern sections, and allowing for more sun to the south. As the surface high gradually moves east, this will set up some light southerly flow over the CWA today, which will allow warm advection and an increase in temperatures from yesterday. With clouds in place and the flow being generally weak, this forecast will keep things only in the lower to middle 40s. If the southern CWA remains mostly clear all day, some upper 40s will be possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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As upper flow behind the trough axis eventually pivots from NW to W through the rest of the short term forecast period, surface high pressure will continue to move east, eventually becoming centered (if rather elongated) across the southeastern states. Surface flow will likely back to the ESE on Thursday night, remaining light but not quite calm. These winds will increase again on Friday, with warm advection beginning at all levels, as low-level flow becomes enhanced by a tightening pressure gradient. This will set up both Thursday night and Friday as being slightly warmer than the preceding night and day. There is definitely room for the temperature forecast on Friday to still increase slightly, especially if it continues to look like clouds in advance of the next front (covered in the long term AFD section) will hold off until late in the day. This forecast will allow for lower to middle 50, slightly higher than the SREF mean, and close to a MAV/MET guidance compromise.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Mid level trough will dig east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday. A cold front associated with this upper level feature will push east through the region Friday night into Saturday morning. Moisture is limited, so for the most part, clouds will thicken ahead of the cold front. There is a slight chance for a shower late in our northeast zones. Skies should become partly cloudy/mostly sunny in the wake of the front on Saturday. Despite some weak CAA, sunshine and early mild temperatures to start will allow for highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. For Saturday night into Sunday, mid level trough is much more progressive now, and associated secondary push of CAA is more shunted to our northeast. As a result, clouds will be less, and it is not expected to be as cold on Sunday as previously thought a few days ago. Highs will range from the lower to mid 40s. Surface high pressure will be over the Ohio Valley by Sunday evening. It will then move east through Monday while a mid level ridge traverses the region. Temperatures will modify into the upper 40s to the lower 50s. There continues to be a fair amount of spread among the models in terms of the strength and timing of the next mid level trough and associated cold front. Used a combination of the previous forecast and 00Z blended forecast to account for this uncertainty. This keeps low chance PoPs in the forecast for Tuesday/Tuesday night as a front tries to push east across the region. Have gone with a dry forecast for Wednesday. Tuesday is looking like the warmest day of the extended, mid and upper 50s, with cooler temperatures forecast for Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with the exception of some valley fog at KLUK early this morning. Mid-level clouds will move through the area today, with no precipitation expected. Winds out of the southwest will generally remain at or below 10 knots. Winds will become light again tonight, as skies become mostly clear. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Hatzos SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Hatzos

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