Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270537 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 137 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE. ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH. WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THICKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS...AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO FAR...WITH WIND REMAINING IN PLACE...BUT CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY (UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS). THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO A VCTS HAS BEEN USED FOR THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING CONDITIONS (WITH MUCH CALMER WINDS) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HATZOS

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