Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251758 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 158 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Southerly flow will result in warm and dry weather into Wednesday night. A cold front will sweep across the region on Thursday with high pressure briefly building in behind the front. Conditions will become unsettled over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cumulus that developed today will diminish with the loss of heating. Some high clouds will move across the region through the night with somewhat thicker clouds possible late. MOS guidance seems to have a reasonable handle on lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper level ridging will sharpen along the western edge of the Appalachians with southerly low level flow increasing during the day. Looks like there will be little to no clouds. All of this will lead to very warm temperatures, although falling a few degrees shy of records across the area. Wednesday night, a short wave will pivot out of the Ozarks into central Illinois/Indiana. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system will approach the western counties late in the night. At this point it looks like a rather sharp gradient in moisture with this. So clouds will not increase until the latter half of the night. Persistent south winds will keep readings quite mild.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The pattern will become very amplified, with a feed of Gulf moisture stretching well north into the Great Lakes. A 500mb trough will be rotating around a slow-moving low over northern Minnesota, driving a cold front into the region on Thursday morning. Not looking like a favorable setup for any strong storms, with deep-layer southerly flow along a stretched- out north-to-south cold front. There is also a degree of difference in how the overlaying trough is handled in the models -- appearing far more well defined on ECMWF/NAM forecasts as opposed to recent GFS runs. Ultimately, a relatively quick shot of rain (perhaps with some embedded thunder) will move through the region on Thursday (mainly the first half of the day) before the region ends up on the cool side of the boundary on Thursday night. By Friday, another big wave in the pattern will begin to develop over the central plains, as height rises over the Ohio Valley allow the surface boundary to return as a warm front. An initial round (or perhaps a couple rounds) of precipitation will spread into the area along and north of the boundary on Friday night into Saturday, before much of the area ends up in the warm sector going into Sunday. With a stronger (and closer) surface cyclone expected with this system, chances of rain appear more widespread late Sunday into Sunday night -- perhaps with more instability than the Thursday system as well. Temperatures appear likely to remain above normal for most of the forecast period. The front on Thursday will result in a notable gradient from west-to-east, with a more typical distribution of temperatures on Friday and into the weekend, with the warmest values in the southeastern ILN CWA. Behind the second cold front, a significant drop in max temps is expected for Monday, and the forecast has been adjusted downward for the first part of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Cumulus across the region will dissipate by 00Z. Thereafter will only see some high clouds. Cannot rule out mist developing in central Ohio and also at KLUK overnight where winds will be lighter. Have included a period of MVFR visibilities around 12Z at those locations. Winds will veer to the south on Wednesday and increase in speed with some gusts possible by the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings along with a chance of thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and then again Friday night through Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...

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