Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 252343 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 743 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNSET. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN AREA OF STORMS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS DISSIPATE THIS FEATURE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE FA HOWEVER WITH IT MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE IT STICKING AROUND A LITTLE LONGER. INTRODUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING FOR AWHILE BEFORE HAVING THE STORMS DISSIPATE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CU SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA NEAR KCVG. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH IN INDIANA SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. SOME MVFR FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD CHANCE OF RIVER FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS. MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...PADGETT

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