-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 161308
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
908 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATION AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY TAKE CONTROL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST AND
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH 100-POPS NOW IN USE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
PRESENT...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED THIS
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS SHOWERY AND WEAK.

THE SIGNAL IN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE HARD TO COME BY TODAY...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED STREAM OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WSW...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON (RAW MODEL FORECASTS ARE AS HIGH
AS THE LOWER 70S...BUT LIKELY OVERDONE). THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY (UNDER 1000 J/KG) TO DEVELOP...WITH ENOUGH
STRENGTH IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY FLOW TO ALLOW FOR A
SMALL AMOUNT OF ORGANIZATION AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS. PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.75" OR HIGHER NEAR THE OHIO RIVER MIGHT ALSO
SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAIN. THE OVERALL SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WELL-DEFINED FORCING...DOES NOT SUPPORT
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. POPS WERE KEPT FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LOWER IN THE NW...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AREA OF CONVECTION MOVG OUT OF INDIANA AND INTO OHIO IS BEING
DRIVEN BY AN H5 S/W IN THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE N. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL BY MID
MORNING...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO COMBINE WITH A SFC FRONT THAT
SAGS INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
WENT WITH BEST POPS IN DURING THE AFTN HOURS AND IN THE E. KEPT
POPS LIKELY IN THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH UP TO AROUND 80 AGAIN TODAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SFC FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO KY OVERNIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE NR THE
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC POPS OF CONVECTION IN THE S
OVERNIGHT. NRN LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS KY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
ACROSS SRN LOCATIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SECOND
FRONT TO GIVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY.

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...ALLOWING
THEM TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON
MONDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER AREA THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE N AND THE LOWER 80S IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SE PROVIDING GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND.

UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL ALLOW A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP TO RETURN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH THE BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO MID WEEK THEN
RECOVER TO READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
WILL HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WINDS SHIFT CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
SOME VFR SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONLY THE
MORE STEADY RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED TO BRING DOWN THE CIGS AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS STILL BEING CHARGED WITH MOISTURE FROM THIS
INCOMING RAIN.

PREVAILING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE 14-18Z TIME FRAME AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE MVFR IN NATURE. LOW LEVEL LEFT-OVER MOISTURE BEHIND IT
MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE COOLEST
PART OF THE PREDAWN HOURS TOMORROW. IFR CIGS ARE BEING INDICATED
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER VSBYS IN A MOIST POST-FRONTAL
ATMOSPHERE THAT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT...INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS