Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201740 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 140 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT CVG AND LUK...OTHERWISE TAF SITES HAVE VFR. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MORE MVFR CEILINGS. KEPT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING AT A DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS DIRECTION SHIFTS TO WEST ALONG THE FRONT. CVG SHOULD SEE CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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