Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 212334 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 734 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FOG CONCERNS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. IN ADDITION RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE FA. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OR SO OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S. HIGHLIGHTED THESE VALUES IN THE HWO. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WORK INTO THE FA. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE AND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. STRONG STORM CHANCES ARE LESS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY. DUE TO THIS DO NOT HAVE STRONG STORM MENTION IN THE HWO ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST OF THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SOME REMAINING SHOWERS (AND LITTLE INSTABILITY) MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL PLACE THE OHIO VALLEY IN A REGIME OF NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY ACT TO FOCUS SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THESE CHANCES MAY INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH GREATER AMPLITUDE OVER A LARGER EXPANSE OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF ALL OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS ALSO EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WITH CLOUDIER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MODERATE SOMEWHAT AFTER PEAKING NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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DIURNAL CU SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MID EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE DRIED OUT SOME AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT AS GOOD AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HOWEVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW...WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR BR LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KLUK. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SCT CU POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...JGL

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