Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210836 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 336 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers will be possible today into tonight along a weak cold front. High pressure is forecast to provide mainly dry weather on Wednesday. A low pressure system will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the weather picture Thursday and Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Cold front is located near the Mississippi River early this morning. The front is weakening as it moves into less favorable moisture and forcing that are in place over the Ohio Valley. Though moisture and lift will increase somewhat today as the front moves in, have reduced PoPs and delayed onset of shower chances based on latest models that have trended drier over the last several runs. Current radar echos that are scant along the front support the drier solution. Much above normal temperatures will persist. Highs in the mid and upper 60s will be within a few degrees of record highs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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As the front weakens tonight while entering the area, most locations should be free from measurable precip. However, a shot of short wave energy and moisture developing around an upper low to the south may bring showers mainly along and south of the Ohio River. Kept PoPs below likely due to model inconsistencies. Following the dying cold front, weak surface high pressure and a broad ridge aloft are expected to prevent measurable precip from developing on Wednesday. Decreasing cloud cover should result in sunshine by Wednesday afternoon. Minimal temperature advection associated with the front will allow highs to stay well above normal Wednesday, in the mid and upper 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Westerly mid level flow with shortwave passing through the Great Lakes Wednesday night/Thursday. This will allow a surface front to drop down into the southern Great Lakes and stall out. Meanwhile vigorous jet energy will carve out a trough over the western US. Shortwave pivoting northeast will induce a deepening surface low that ejects from the central plains on Thursday into the Great Lakes Friday. Aforementioned surface front lifts north as a warm front with a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm mainly the northern counties Thursday night. Breezy conditions will exist in the warm sector Friday when temperatures approach record values in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Associated strong surface cold front to sweep east through ILN/s FA Friday evening. MUCAPES values of 500 to 750 j/kg are fcst Friday afternoon into Friday evening ahead of this surface front. Numerical models have been showing good continuity from run to run. Sherbs3 shows a a good signal for high shear low cape strong squall line potential with the possibility of damaging winds. Will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO product. In the wake of the front breezy conditions are likely in the CAA pattern later Friday night into Saturday. Scattered showers will be possible Saturday due to the passage of the mid level trof. These showers may transition or mix with a few snow showers prior to ending Saturday night. Surface high pressure to build in Sunday providing dry weather and more seasonable Temperatures. In the quick zonal flow a front to drop south through the area providing a slight chance of a rain or snow shower Sunday night into early Monday. A better threat of rain showers looks to occur late Monday into Tuesday, as this front returns north as a warm front with a surface wave of low pressure traveling through the Great Lakes.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Area is under a southeast flow ahead of a weak cold front currently near the Mississippi River. Sky cover consisting of high clouds will lower as the front approaches, with mid and low clouds developing after 12z. Rain showers are forecast to occur in the vicinity around 21z, though latest models and radar indicate further weakening of the front and less coverage of showers than was previously anticipated. MVFR conditions are likely to develop near the end of the TAF period as low level moisture converges near the dying front. Winds will become south to southwest, with gusts near 20 knots expected this afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) Wed 2/22 71(1922) 70(1930) 69(1922) Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985) Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio CLIMATE...

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