Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 092036 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 336 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure and a cold front will push east across the region this evening. Weak high pressure will then build into the area later tonight into Sunday. A clipper system will move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Isentropic lift ahead of a cold front to our west this afternoon is resulting in light stratiform snow over the eastern two thirds of the CWFA. This precipitation will move east over the next several hours. Scattered snow showers will then follow in association with a cold front and upper level PV anomaly. Additional snow accumulations will be a half inch or less. Winds will also become gusty this evening due to a brief tightening of the pressure gradient and some mixed winds from aloft. Models concur that snow shower activity should quickly come to an end between 03Z and 06Z as large scale subsidence follows in the wake of the front/anomaly while low level flow backs away from Lake Michigan. Stratocumulus clouds will linger with 850 cold pool, but should begin shifting east late. Lows will generally be in the lower 20s, although a few upper teens could occur across the far west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Forecast area will remain in a northwest flow aloft through the short term. A couple of disturbances are forecast to drop southeast across the region. First, a weak ridge of high pressure will move east across the region on Sunday. Stratocumlus clouds will be replaced by mid level altocumulus as one such disturbance passes through during the day. Although we will begin to warm air advect, clouds across the region, especially north, will limit warmth. Highs will range from the lower to mid 30s. For Sunday night, another disturbance will quickly move in behind the first one. This feature, along with a weak trof axis, should only result in clouds. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 20s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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An upper level shortwave will enter the region from the northwest on Monday and create a chance for some light snow north of metropolitan Dayton during the day, then spreading ese towards Columbus in the evening and spreading slightly to the southwest and Cincy metro area overnight. A lingering lake enhanced band may affect the region on Tuesday, primarily running from north of Dayton to along and south of Columbus. This will die out during the day Tuesday and the threat for any precipitation will remain in a lull until Wednesday night when the next surface low tracks through the Great Lakes and receives some support with the passage of an upper level shortwave. This activity should peak early Thursday at this moment in the forecast process. Dry conditions will be favored from Thursday night onward. Temperatures for this forecast period will be cool and below freezing through Wednesday, then warm slightly on Thursday to the low 30s in the north and around 40 south of the Ohio River. A brief cooling period will occur Friday behind the Thursdays front, with a warmup into the 40s expected Saturday given a good southerly flow and high pressure to the southeast of the region.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An embedded disturbance will push southeast across the region late this afternoon into this evening. This feature will be accompanied by a surface cold front. Weak lift ahead of the front will bring mainly MVFR conditions in light snow to the terminals. Behind the front and in association with the disturbance, snow showers are expected, with a brief influence of lake effect off of Lake Michigan early this evening. During this time frame winds will become gusty from the west/northwest with gusts between 20 and 25 knots. Snow showers will drop visibilities locally to IFR while ceilings primarily remain MVFR. As the disturbance moves off to our east between 03Z and 06Z, snow showers will taper off. MVFR ceilings will then linger late, with VFR conditions returning from west to east between 09Z and 13Z. Gustiness will subside as well. On Sunday, in a northwest flow aloft, a quick moving disturbance will cross the region. This feature will bring mid clouds. Winds will be locally gusty between 15 and 20 knots from the southwest ahead of a weak surface trof to our west. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Monday night into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Hickman

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