Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190021 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 821 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK LOW PRESSURE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSE THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD GO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW COUNTIES DOWN THE U.S. 68 CORRIDOR TO ILN. ELSEWHERE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LATEST MODEL RUN HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY. THEY ARE STILL DIGGING AN H5 S/W WHICH DEEPENS THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER THEY HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE BETTER POPS AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE MORNING HOURS DRY TOMORROW THEN BROUGHT IN HIGH CHANCE POPS TO THE NW BY LATE TUESDAY AFTN. AS THE S/WV EJECTS EWD ACRS THE REGION TUESDAY TONIGHT EXPECT A LINE/AREA OF CONVECTION TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME TSTMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC HAS PUT WRN SECTIONS IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2. STRUGGLED WITH HOW WARM TO GO FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. ENDED UP GOING LOWER 80S IN THE NW AND MID 80S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL BACK ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 WORKS E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN INTO KY. DUE TO LACK IN STRONG FORCING...PCPN CHANCE LOOK LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN NRN KY CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRYING TO INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT STRETCHES BACK INTO INDIANA. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP APPEARS TO BE IN THE CINCY TRI-STATE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...EVENTUALLY HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF PCPN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GENERALLY EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TOO WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACRS SRN OHIO/NRN KY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE INVOF HANG BACK ELONGATED SFC TROF FROM DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER W VA. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING PCPN IS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT IN THE PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS. FOG WILL BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITH A VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A MENTION OF VCTS AT 30 HOUR KCVG TAF SITE AFTER 04Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN SW AT 10 KTS OR LESS TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR

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