Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 021745 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 145 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW BUT IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HI RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. AS WE GET INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE...SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS PRETTY LOW AS FORCING IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AND ACROSS OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BE FOUND IN THE REGION AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S AND APPROACH 90 IN MANY SPOTS...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ANY CONVECTION BEYOND THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE UNDERCUTTING THE H5 RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST. CONTINUED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WHILE SOME OF THE SPECIFICS REGARDING THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOWS NO SIGNS OF CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT TREND TOWARD THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN GOING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE AXIS OF A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE TEXAS COAST NNE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE..THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY NEBULOUS...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE OHIO VALLEY IN A REGIME OF WEAK AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS WARM CONDITIONS...AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ARE EXPECTED. GEFS 850MB/700MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXTREME...RANGING FROM AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LENDS SUPPORT TO A FORECAST FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AT THE HIGH END OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD. WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING...ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE WILLING TO CONVECT...BUT QPF OUTPUT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT IN EITHER CASE. A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN...THOUGH THE EXTENT AND QUICKNESS THAT THIS OCCURS IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS GOING INTO TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HOW FAR THIS PROCESS GETS IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO FORECAST...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND AS LIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PUSHING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR AND WE ARE SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP ALONG THEM. MEANWHILE...THE CU FIELD HAS BECOME A BIT MORE HEALTHY LOOKING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION SO WILL GO AHEAD AND COVER THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. CU AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR TO IFR BR/FG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KLUK/KLCK AND KILN. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...JGL

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