Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270835 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 435 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will move east this morning, allowing low pressure to return, bringing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. After lingering showers end behind departing low pressure on Tuesday, high pressure will provide drier weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another area of low pressure is forecast to arrive for Thursday and Friday, carrying more showers and thunderstorms back into the weather picture. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface map has two areas of low pressure, one moving away to the north, and the second traveling from the southwest, with a weak ridge of high pressure wedged between the two lows. The ridge is poised to move across the ILN area early today, bringing a brief period of dry weather this morning. For this afternoon, the low to the southwest will be approaching. Showers are forecast to develop early this afternoon beginning in southern locations. Thunderstorms will become prevalent by evening as low level moisture and instability comes into phase with mid level short wave energy ahead of the low. Due to rather potent winds aloft aiding in thunderstorm development and duration, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. Well above normal temperatures will continue, with highs from the mid 60s to low 70s expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... 1008 mb low pressure will be moving across Southern Indiana tonight to Ohio Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, will continue this evening in the moist ascent ahead of the low. As instability diminishes and thunderstorms come to an end tonight, showers will linger through the overnight in a regime of persistent deep moisture surrounding the low. Showers will end from west to east on Tuesday as the low moves east and weakens, while the mid level short wave is replaced by a broad ridge. Temperatures will exhibit a bit of a cooling trend as modest cold advection occurs on a northerly low level flow behind the low. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 50s north to upper 60s south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Amplified upper level flow pattern with surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes at mid week. In low level CAA pattern temperatures will be closer to normal, with highs on Wednesday ranging from the mid 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Upper level low to open up as it tracks from the southern plains into the Mid MS VLY Thursday and across the Great Lakes Friday. Latest GFS solution has adjusted now closer to ECMWF/Canadian solutions. In this amplified pattern, upper level ridge ahead of this low will keep the first part of Thursday dry. On the warm side of the system, temperatures will be above normal with highs on Thursday ranging from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s south. Expect showers with a chance of thunderstorms to overspread ILN/s area Thursday afternoon/evening. In southerly flow moisture increases Thursday night into Friday. Will show a period of categorical pops and then diminish pcpn chances Friday night with the passage of a cold front. Temperatures to continue above normal Friday, ranging from 60 northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Surface high pressure to build across the region offering dry weather Saturday and Sunday. Highs close to normal Saturday from the upper 50s to the lower 60s and then warming about a category Sunday. Upper low approaching from the southwest to offer next chance for precipitation later Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Area lies under weak high pressure situated between low pressure systems to the north and southwest. Models have presented a relatively good depiction of this scenario for the last few days, lending some confidence to the forecast, though the details like ceiling height are still going to be tricky. Early in the forecast, conditions will be mainly VFR under the temporarily dry airmass, though FG will impact LUK through early morning. Other TAF sites may see MVFR ceilings later this morning before VFR returns by afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will return later in the forecast with low pressure advancing from the southwest. Showers may arrive early in the afternoon, with thunderstorms developing in the vicinity by evening in increasing instability and forcing ahead of the low. A period of MVFR is expected with the thunderstorms, and IFR is possible at CVG after 06z Tuesday. Winds shifting from southwest to southeast are forecast to remain below 10 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible into Tuesday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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