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000
FXUS61 KILN 131446
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1046 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORK THROUGH THE
AREA.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WAS FOLLOWING BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...AND ONCE THIS PUSHES THROUGH...PCPN SHOULD COME TO
AN END WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH #305 IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR EXTREME SE CWFA UNTIL 2 PM
EDT...BUT LIKELY WILL COME DOWN AROUND NOON TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN RAIN COOLED AIR THIS MORNING
BUT SOME SUN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN TO A ZONAL PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MILD...WITH CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT.

BY MONDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
EXCEPTION IS IN CENTRAL OHIO WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF
THIS ACTIVITY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH STORMS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL ALSO CAUSE WINDS TO VEER AND CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AND VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WITH TIME.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATE IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SCATTER OUT TOWARDS 00Z AND
WINDS WIL DIMINISH AS WELL. COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOP AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...