-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 141458
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1058 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THESE FEATURES PUSH INTO THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
CAA ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CU DEVELOPMENT. LATEST VIS SATL IMGRY SHOWING CU FIELD
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS CENTRAL OHIO. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT
WITH SKIES SHOULD BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER TDA WITH HIGHS FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY SOME HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA.


ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH RETREATS E INTO THE APPALACHIANS. AN H5 S/W IN
THE NORTHWEST PUSHES A SFC LOW TOWARDS THE REGION. THE 00Z MODELS
HAVE TRENDED FARTHER N WITH THE LOW AND BAND OF PRECIPITATION. WENT
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS N OF I-70....BUT TAPERED THE POPS DOWN TO A
SLIGHT CHC ACROSS NRN KY. SURFACE WAVE WILL DEPART THE AREA TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL LEAVE BEHIND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. KEPT A CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY.


WITH THE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TOP DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NE TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
WEST. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MAY PASS
WEST TO EAST IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WOULD
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE
US IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AND THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WILL
DETERMINE THOSE FACTORS. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER TROUGH TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
JUST TO ITS EAST. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTH WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CREATE A CU FIELD AROUND 4KFT
THIS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL COME IN LATE IN THE
FORECAST AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...AR