-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 180525
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED INTO
SW OHIO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MODERATE INSTBY THIS AFTN. THESE
STORMS MOVED NORTH AND HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTBY...LEAVING SOME SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS
THE NORTH. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
NORTH BEFORE FALLING APART.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS KENTUCKY INTO SRN OHIO
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL S/W WHICH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE FROM
WRN TN VLY INTO OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. CONTINUED TO GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WARMER MOS FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DEFINITE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO CONVECTION. BUT DO EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. BUT STILL A DECENT CHANCE IN THE
NORTH ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO VARY
MUCH FROM A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA ON SUNDAY.  MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.

AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF MOIST CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE
FOR GENERALLY-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNLIKELY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE...AND KLUK WILL SPEND SOME TIME IN THE IFR CATEGORY AS
USUAL. NEAR SUNRISE...THE CLOUD HEIGHTS AT THE CINCINNATI TAF
SITES WILL BE LOWERING SOMEWHAT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE
MVFR THRESHOLD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS COMING
AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
DISORGANIZED. BECAUSE OF THAT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO FORECAST THIS
SPECIFICALLY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT THE CINCINNATI
TAF SITES...AND LESS LIKELY AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS