-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 140611
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
211 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT. A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST INTO OHIO
AND CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A WARM FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS THE LIKELY RESULT OF THIS PATTERN.
WITH THE WARM FRONT SETTING UP NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA BY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO IN THE
WAKE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. THE SLOW MOVING EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT
WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF WARM SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 80S AND THE RESULTANT UNSTABLE
AIRMASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. DAY AND CMH MAY SEE MORE ACTIVITY
EARLY IN THE EVENING...WHILE ILN AND CVG COULD EXPERIENCE
CONVECTION LATER AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD BAND OF MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
STALL OUT IN AN  E-W ORIENTATION PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES. SOME OF THE DETAILS...
SUCH AS EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND WHEN IT OSCILLATES
NORTH AND SOUTH HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN DUE TO SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLNS.

HAVE LOOKED FOR CONTINUITY AND FAVOR A CONSENSUS SOLN. LATEST
EVIDENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACRS CENTRAL OHIO
ON THURSDAY. AN EMBEDDED SRN S/W MOVING THRU THE REGION...ALONG WITH
INSTBY SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS HERE INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THURSDAYS HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID AND UPR 70S.

SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG A LITTLE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR RAIN ACRS THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL ALLOW POPS TO DIMINISH ACRS THE FAR
NORTH AND DECREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE IN THE SOUTH.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE SOUTH EARLY AND THEN END ALL POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO NUDGE A LTL NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHC DURG THE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS A LTL WARMER ON SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION
SUNDAY AND THE UPR MS VLY MONDAY. FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF
ILN FA WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. BEST MOISTURE AND
FORCING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY. WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH IN THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM WITH HIGHS FROM 80 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH.

WILL ALLOW CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AS THE
FLOW BACKS HAD OF THE DEEP PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF. DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP HAVE TEMPS BACK IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS SW FLOW PICKS UP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SFC RIDGE. ALREADY SEEING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIFT AS AC IS DROPPING SE THROUGH INDIANA
TOWARDS THE TAFS. MODELS ARE SHOWING H7 MOISTURE AFFECTING THE TAFS
UNTIL 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN IT PUSHES EWD. JUST SOME SCT CI
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/FRANKS
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES