Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010754 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 354 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE STAY FAIRLY MIXY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING SO ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN TRANSIENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. IN WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN...WE HAVE SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS TO WORK THEIR WAY UP NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PUSHING UP INTO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY PROGRESSING EAST TOWARD OUR AREA LATE...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A LOW END SEVERE RISK TOWARD EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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BETTER FORCING WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS HOWEVER AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC REMAIN SLOWER WITH THEIR TIMING COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND NAM. WILL STICK WITH FORECAST PERSISTENCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...SPREADING CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW. THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC FORCING HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SCT STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN. MESOSCALE DETAILS LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FCSTS AT THIS POINT. DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SEPT BUT NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN THESE PATTERNS. SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH. AND LOOKING BEYOND DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REALIZED WITH STRATUS DECK BUILDING INTO MUCH OF AREA. SUFFICIENT LL MIXING SO THAT CURRENTLY NOT AN EXPECTATION OF ANYTHING BELOW MVFR BR...THOUGH PERIODIC IFR FG HERE AT KILN THE EXCEPTION. IFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH POSSIBLE SHRA LIFTING NORTH FROM KY IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD. EXPECTING SCT VFR CLOUDS BY MID DAY...WITH VFR BKN WITH APPROACH OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. INTRODUCED VCSH TOWARD 06Z...WITH EXPECTATION OF TSRA LATER. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...JDR

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