Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 021041 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 641 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO BY SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN FACT...SOME SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWFA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA BY SUNRISE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THEN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ARE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP...AND WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE AND A LEAD S/WV WITHIN A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR REGION REMAINS SLIGHTLY CAPPED. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME ISSUES IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND STRONG LLJ OVER THE GREAT LAKES. USING ALL AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (CONVECTION ALLOWING) AND SYNOPTIC MODELS (CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION)...IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL UNDERGO A WEAKENING TREND AS IT TRIES TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR NORTHERN ZONES. PART OF THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL BE DUE TO A FAIRLY RAPID DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AS WELL AS A SHIFTING OF LOW LEVEL FORCING TO OUR NORTHEAST. A RESULT...HAVE BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NRN AND NWRN ZONES. SPC SWODY1 GLANCES OUR FAR NW WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS...AND AM IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS GIVEN THE FORECAST SCENARIO. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO OBTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST OVERALL SHEAR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE...BUT WITH LOW COVERAGE...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH MID 60S EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER NEAR THE DEPARTING FRONT. MODELS NOW CONCUR THAT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST CANADA. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS WE RETURN TO A ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AN EMBEDDED S/WV MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 01.12Z GFS RUN SHIFTED THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF QUITE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 06Z RUN...TAKING IT RIGHT THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON FRIDAY. BASED ON THIS LARGE SHIFT AND THE FACT THAT ITS QPF AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL LOOK OVERDONE...HAVE USED A BLEND MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE ECMWF /WHICH HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY/ TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM. WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STAYING TO OUR SOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM) WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND...AND DOES NOT WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A VCSH FOR PLACEMENT AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS (WITH SOME GUSTS A LITTLE HIGHER POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES). WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SSW AND BECOME WEAKER GOING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING AND VEERING AGAIN EARLY MONDAY. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...HATZOS

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