Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 072047 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 447 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. IT WILL LAY OUT A BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARDS THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SET UP A SIMILAR REPEATING PROCESS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WAS ISSUED WITH AN OVER-ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST LOOK TO BE EXITING CENTRAL OHIO AND CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL OCCUR IN AN AREA OF VERY HIGH PWAT >2" WHICH NATURALLY RESULT IN A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO BE A PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND THAT WAS THE KICKER FOR ISSUING A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE DISCONGRUENT WITH QPF FIELDS BUT ALL SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAIN OVER NRN KY AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. NAM APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND RESOLVES THE SURFACE LOW NICELY WITH WHERE IT IS OBSERVED JUST BY THE PURE SPIN IN THE REFLECTIVITY LOOP. GIVEN THAT THE NAM MAY HAVE AN EDGE ON THE FORECAST...HEDGED A COUPLE OF COUNTIES NORTHWEST OF THE LARGER THREAT AND INCLUDED SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND A TIER OF COUNTIES IN OHIO TO THE WATCH. NAM IS ALSO SHOWING A MINIMAL QPF FIELD WHERE OTHER MODELS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...LEADING TO A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE WATCH AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW 70S IN KY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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FRONT WILL LAY OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE THREAT FOR CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER KY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WATCH THAT IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION NOSES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED WED EVENING AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN RISING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND IN THE WESTERLY FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH...A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN AND STORMS FOR THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TODAY WITH THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE LOW...AND TRAILING WELL TO THE WEST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE ILN CWA ON THURSDAY EVENING. AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THIS BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT AND MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LARGELY DIURNAL...AND GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM EACH DAY (THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY). HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE...AS WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE LARGE RIDGE / UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BE RETROGRADING WESTWARD...PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY INTO A PATTERN OF FALLING HEIGHTS AND UPPER FLOW THAT SHIFTS TO THE NW. WITH RESPECT TO THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGHING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...IT IS CLEAR THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE VALUES EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AMPLE MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR MVFR CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE KDAY/KLUK/KCVG/KILN LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DIFFICULT. GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 25KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF KDAY/KCMH/KLCK OVERNIGHT...SO WINDS TO GO NRLY THESE LOCATIONS. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...ALSO EXPECTING MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT KCMH/KLCK/KDAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...JDR

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