Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 012011 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 411 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...CULMINATING ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS OF STORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT...TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN NORTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG A LINE RUNNING FROM RICHMOND THROUGH GREENVILLE TOWARDS WAPAKONETA. AS THIS TIME...3 HOUR FFG VALUES RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 3 INCHES IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS DEVELOP EARLY AND TRAIN OVER THE REGION STARTING IN THE EVENING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. AT THIS TIME...MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BUT THE AXIS OF THE SW-NE LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY TRAIN IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE. THE AREA HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO SOAK UP A GOOD BIT OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY RUNOFF. WPC PRODUCTS SEEM TO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WHERE THE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY VERSUS WHERE THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXCEED FFGUIDANCE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BY THE TIME DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE SW-NE AXIS MORE INTO THE CWA AND ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. AREAS THAT SAW EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY MAY BE HIT WITH ANOTHER SOAKER...BUT THE UNUSUALLY HIGH VALUES SHOULD NOT MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE...AT LEAST OVER WARREN AND GREENE COUNTIES. PRECIP DURING THE DAY OVER THE CWA WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND EXPAND SOUTHEAST TO COVER THE REST OF CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUTED DUE TO THE RAINFALL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S...SOME MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF A FEW HOURS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PROVIDE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR. THE DRIEST AIR AND SUBSEQUENT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH THE AREA EAST OF COLUMBUS GETTING THE BEST COOLING BOTH TUES AND WED NIGHTS. NORTH OF DAYTON ON WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THE RETURNING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING UP THROUGH THE WRN OHIO VALLEY. AS FRONT LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. BY FRIDAY...A CDFNT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING A RANGE ON THE FROPA TIMING. THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE. BOTH MODELS SHOW FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PUT THE BEST POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50 POP ACROSS THE REGION. REDEVELOPED THE PCPN SATURDAY MORNING WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER POPS TO THE NW. THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT QUICKER SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH LEAVES LINGERING PCPN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HELD ON TO 20 POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN NRN KY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LULL OR DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. TIMED IN TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE TAF SITES ON TUESDAY DURING THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. EXPECT VSBYS TO BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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