Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 180549 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will bring scattered snow showers and an unseasonable cold airmass to the Ohio Valley on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... With colder air aloft widespread diurnal cumulus clouds developed across areas north of the Ohio River. A few showers developed across the far northern counties. With the loss of daytime heating these clouds were decreasing in coverage. Latest satellite imagery shows a good deal of clouds upstream. Have adjusted the forecast going more pessimistic with cloud cover but this may need to be adjusted for more clouds. Gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon were beginning to drop off to around 10 mph. These northwest winds will continue at less than 10 mph overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... An embedded mid level short wave will pivot down across the Ohio Valley through the day on Monday. This will combine with a fetch off of Lake Michigan, diurnal heating, and increasing low level lapse rates, to result in fairly widespread snow shower development from late morning on into the afternoon. This is reflected in the snow squall parameter which lights up pretty nicely across at least the northeast two thirds of our area. For now will go with high chance pops/scattered wording across most of the area but pops may need to be nudged up further with later forecasts. Given the cold air aloft and the fact that these will be convective showers, will keep ptype as all snow. While ground temperatures will still be warm, it will be tough to rule out some brief light accumulations on grassy/elevated surfaces in any of the more significant snow showers. Temperatures will be well below normal with daytime highs only in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. The snow shower activity will slowly taper off heading into Monday evening with lows Monday night in the mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... By Tuesday, the shortwave trough axis will have shifted southeast of the region, however, much of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions remain within the longwave trough persisting over eastern North America. The longwave trough lingers through Thursday before mid and upper level flow temporarily becomes zonal. Conditions are expected to remain dry through much of the week, but temperatures continue to trend cooler toward the later half of the week as another surge of cooler air drops in from the north. While Tuesday and Wednesday`s high temperatures are near normal, Thursday afternoon will be a few degrees below normal. The next chance for precipitation arrives Thursday night into Friday morning as a weak shortwave moving southeastward through the longwave trough will supply weak synoptic lift. This will combine with moisture sourced from a closed low passing the south of the region. Overall, this leads to fairly lackluster precipitation chances for the area through Friday. Heading into the weekend, a longwave change appears to approach as a broad ridge opens up for the central CONUS. This would suggest a gradual warming trend into the weekend and early next week, with better rainfall chances arriving next week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Main weather impact to the TAF sites over the 24-30 hour period will be isolated to scattered snow showers Monday. These showers are being produced by a mid-level trough which contains very cold air aloft. This will cause the development of a broken cumulus field and gusty (at times) winds from late morning into the early evening hours, with best coverage likely in the mid- to late-afternoon. The showers could also bring down visibility and ceilings to MVFR levels, with localized visibility in heavier showers down to IFR levels... especially at the northern sites of DAY, CMH, and LCK. The convection is likely to diminish after sunset as the trough shifts to the east. OUTLOOK...No significant weather.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.