Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 040153 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 953 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED CENTRAL OHIO HAS DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOW THE QUESTION IS WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AND DROP INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FORECAST LOWS A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND COOLER MOS NUMBERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THERE IS A REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY WITH WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WOBBLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. MORE SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN FRIDAY... AS SHEAR AXIS LEFT OVER FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING SATURDAY EVENING. IN A STAGNANT PATTERN WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TO DAY AND NIGHT TO NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT AND WHETHER OR NOT A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND LINGERS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF FAVORS THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DECIDED TO LINGER THE PRECIPITATION LONGER THAN THE GFS HOWEVER NOT AS LONG AS THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION AROUND THE REGION AND ON THURSDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED IN THE HUMID AIRMASS WILL DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT CMH AND LCK LATER TONIGHT WHEN A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...BR IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN THE PERSISTENTLY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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