Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230859 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 359 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A few showers may develop today ahead of a cold frontal boundary entering Northwest Ohio. More showers will be possible tonight when the boundary is forecast to lift back north as a warm front. A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms late Friday, with severe weather possible. Colder air and brisk winds will follow the front on Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A cold front extends across Illinois from low pressure over Northern Michigan. Moisture is increasing in the southerly flow ahead of the front, producing some low clouds and BR. Models show scattered showers developing as the front slowly approaches NW Ohio, though that may be overdone with no radar echoes evident yet. Kept slight chance PoPs for this event. Frontal progress is likely to stall over Northern Ohio by late afternoon as the front becomes nearly parallel to the 500 mb flow. Temperatures will continue to be anomalously warm, reaching the mid and upper 60s, possibly attaining record highs at CMH and DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Front is forecast to lift north to Lake Erie tonight as a warm front ahead of deepening low pressure moving to Illinois. Showers will be possible in isentropic lift near the front, mainly over northern locations. For Friday, the low is expected to travel to Lake Michigan, while a strong cold front swings into Indiana. Potent moisture and temperature advection on a southerly low level jet will cause convergence and instability to increase by afternoon, resulting in a chance of thunderstorms well ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms will become likely in western counties by 6 pm Friday when the thunderstorms are forecast to congeal into a line. Strong wind fields suggest better than average storm organization and potency, and damaging wind gusts will be possible with some of the storms. Temperatures rising to the low and mid 70s should break daily record highs, and monthly highs will also be in jeopardy (see Climate section below).
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A strong mid level jet of 100 plus kts to pivot northeast from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes Friday evening. Deepening surface low to eject northeast through the Great Lakes Friday night with a strong cold front sweeping east across ILN/s FA between 06Z and 09Z. Numerical models have generally trended further southeast with the surface wave, closer to previous ECMWF solutions. With surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s model solutions are showing MLCAPES values of 750 to 1000 j/kg Friday evening ahead of this surface front. Forecast soundings show favorable shear for initially supercells transitioning to linear storm mode. The threat exists for damaging winds, large hail and the possibility of tornadoes. The latest SPC SWODY2 has expanded the enhanced risk for severe storms Friday night to include most of ILN/s FA. Will continue to highlight this severe weather threat in the HWO product. In the wake of the front windy conditions are likely in the CAA pattern later Friday night into Saturday. Momentum transfer method applied to forecast soundings across west central Ohio indicate wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible into Saturday afternoon. A few showers will be possible Saturday across west central Ohio due to the passage of the mid level trof but the best moisture and lift looks to stay north of ILN/s FA. Surface high pressure to build in Sunday providing dry weather and more seasonable Temperatures. Model solutions then diverge on the timing and placement of systems in quick zonal flow. GFS solution showing wave moving through on Monday, while ECMWF is holds pcpn off until Monday night with a warm front lifting north. Due to uncertainty will limit pops to a slight chance late Sunday night into Monday. This pcpn may start as a rain/snow mix, changing to rain Monday. A better threat of rain showers looks to occur late Monday into Tuesday, as this front returns north as a warm front with a surface wave of low pressure developing in the central plains. With this low traveling through the Great Lakes a sfc cold front sweeps east through the Ohio Valley Wednesday. In the warm sector ahead of this front will allow for highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s for a chance for thunder. Northwest flow develops with surface high pressure building in next Thursday. This will provide dry weather and more seasonable temperatures in the 40s.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TAFs to be affected by a cold front approaching from the northwest. Low level moisture increasing on a southerly flow is forecast to converge ahead of the front this morning, producing MVFR conditions and isolated rain showers. Observations close to TAF sites are beginning to show MVFR which lends some confidence to the early part of the forecast. MVFR is expected to persist into the afternoon before ceilings lift above 3000 ft. A return to MVFR could occur late in the forecast, aided by additional moisture advection to the south of the strengthening front which will be lifting north to Lake Erie as a warm front. Winds are forecast to stay under 10 knots out of the south to southwest. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday and Friday night. MVFR ceilings and vsbys are possible Saturday and Monday. && .CLIMATE...
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Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985) Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961) February Record Highs CVG 76 set 2/10/1932 CMH 75 set 2/26/2000 DAY 73 set 2/11/1999 and 2/25/2000
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio CLIMATE...

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