Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 272342 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 742 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER. LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TO UPPER 80S. MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL STALL OUT ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OCCUR OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK TUESDAY AFTN. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR

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