Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 121035 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 635 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON MONDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR FOR MID JULY WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK WARM FRONT PIVOTS NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A WESTERLY ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET AND LEAD S/WV ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR REGION. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW THAT LOW CHANCES POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON (20 AND 30 PERCENT) AS THIS CONVECTION MAY SLIP INTO THE AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES BY MID DAY AND THE PCPN PROPAGATES EAST/SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN CURRENT LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE DEBRIS CLOUDS EMANATING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A LARGE SCALE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW TREK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING/LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL ONLY ALLOW CHANCE POPS TO SAG INTO THE NRN ZONES LATE AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME PCPN MAY BLEED SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THIS AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS INTO THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE ENOUGH...LOW END MODERATE...TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500 J/KG (NORTH) TO 2500 J/KG (SOUTH). AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXITS FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND WITH THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT (BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT)...THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE THREATS IN THE HWO. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOUD/PCPN DEPENDENT. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE SOUTH FOR HIGHS TO APPROACH 90...WITH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS AND A QUICKER START TO CONVECTION WILL LIMIT INSOLATION. FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS SLOWLY DIG AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS THE SRN ZONES MONDAY MORNING TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP/APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE DIGGING NATURE OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER SUPPORT...THERE STILL REMAINS THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN THE PROSPECT FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO BEING IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PCPN AND ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FEW SHOWERS DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES SOUTHEAST AROUND DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DAYTON IS 70...CINCINNATI 72...AND COLUMBUS 72. THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR THE DATE FOR DAYTON IS 72 IN 1918 AND 1940...FOR CINCINNATI IT IS 72 IN 1892...AND FOR COLUMBUS IT IS 70 IN 1892. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ASIDE FROM SOME FOG AT KLUK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND LIKELY THROUGH THE 24-HOUR FORECAST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH OHIO. A VCSH HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST...WITH KDAY MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOME RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THUNDER IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO THE AREA REMAINS LOW. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRIEFLY BACKS TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN. ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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