Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010002 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE AREA WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF HOCKING COUNTY WHICH WILL SEE THEM DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. FAIRLY SOLID STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AND COULD LAST THE BETTER PART OF THE OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL OHIO. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR RUNNING FROM KILN AND TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND TURNOVER IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO WARRANT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY AND EXPERIENCE A VERY SLOW DROP WHERE THE CLOUD COVER IS...AND DROP MUCH MORE QUICKLY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY WARMER AND SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT HAS READINGS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY BUT THE CONGLOMERATION OF MODELS WERE INDICATING THE COLDEST INTRUSION TO BE OVER RICHMOND IN WITH THE AXIS KEEPING N OF METRO CINCINNATI AND RUNNING TOWARDS KILN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD POOL AXIS WILL MIGRATE FROM RICHMOND/WILMINGTON TO TOLEDO/ZANESVILLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLOUDY PERIOD EARLY IN CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL BREAK UP IN THE LATE MORNING...ENOUGH TO PUSH HIGHS TO AT LEAST 70 DEGREES...LIKELY LOWER 70S. SOUTH OF AND ALONG OHIO RIVER WILL SEE READINGS WELL INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 70S. FORECAST IS IN FAIRLY SOLID SHAPE FOR THIS PERIOD UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY AND WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REALLY BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS N-S ORIENTED FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET OF 40KT OR SO RIGHT OFF OF THE DECK. PM LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...ABOUT A 10 DEGREE JUMP FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN CWA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE 30.12Z NAM AND CANADIAN PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN A BIT WHILE THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN SPEEDING IT UP. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THESE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF FOR ITS SLIGHTLY BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. FORCING FROM THE FRONT AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF 40. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES. POST FRONTAL STRATUS HAS BEEN MORPHING UNEVENLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR BREAKS NOW DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES AND EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND NORTHEAST FLOW AT 925MB...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK TO EXPAND AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS LOOK TO BE MOST LIKELY AT THE COLUMBUS SITES...AND HAVE INCLUDED THEM AT DAY AND ILN DESPITE THESE AREAS BEING CLOSER TO THE FRINGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WHERE CLEARER SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN CINCINNATI...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT COLD ADVECTION FLOW...LIMITED VSBY TO MVFR AT CVG BUT ALLOWED IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEY AT LUK. VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE OTHER SITES MAY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY AND STRATUS DEVELOPS (I.E. CLEARER LONGER COULD MEAN LOWER VSBY)...BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST COMPUTER MODELS OF ANY LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT FLOW AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN...MIXING MAY LOSE OUT TO SUBSIDENCE AND CLOUDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT THE COLUMBUS SITES...AND HAVE KEPT A CIG THERE...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST IMPROVE TOWARD VFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...SNYDER

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