Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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902 FXUS61 KILN 142342 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 742 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Eastward exiting low pressure will continue to provide some shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday, generally southeast of I-71. High pressure builds in with any shower activity holding off until Thursday night as upper level energy and a surface low bring the next round of showers to the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Rain and showers will persist, with patches of drizzle in- between rounds of rain tonight. Any thunderstorm activity should be limited to northern Kentucky and be quite sparing. Am of the thought that a very stable lower atmosphere with the rain found today will not support thunderstorm activity, less so severe weather. With showers and a deep cloud layer, lows will stay up tonight and only drop to around 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Some instability is noted in the southeast on Wednesday. Combined with the axis of the upper trough moving east, morning showers will decrease from w-e in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, moreso early in the day and focused southeast of the I-71 corridor. Highs will be in the lower 70s for most locations. If a shower or two were to linger into the evening, they will quickly dissipate. Cloud cover will linger in most areas but see a clearing from the northwest later overnight. Lows will be a little cooler under a north wind, dropping to the lower 50s northwest, upper 50s southeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid and upper level low to move off to the East Coast with ridging building into the area Thursday. This ridge will offer a temporary dry period. Mid level short wave ejecting out ahead of a deepening trough/developing low in the central US to track across the region Thursday night. This will bring a return to unsettled weather. Model solutions differ on the development and speed of the next mid level low. Have trended the forecast toward the more progressive ECMWF with the main trough likely moving across the area Friday night. Guidance continues to struggle with the progression and strength of this system. Have lingered pops into Saturday and mainly dry conditions Sunday. Model solutions continue to show spread and therefore uncertainty with front dropping into the southern Great Lakes early next week. Have low chance pops across the far north closer to the front with slight chance pops elsewhere Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will be warmer than normal through the period, with highs generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal and lows close to 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Very slow moving mid-level trough will keep scattered light showers near the terminals through the first 18 hours of the TAF period. The precipitation will be periodic in nature, but ceilings should generally stay MVFR with a saturated low level profile. Can`t rule out brief periods of visibility restrictions into the IFR range during the rain, but this will be the exception not the rule. Conditions should improve early Wednesday evening as the trough slowly exits to the east. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible with thunderstorms Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...