Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291021 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 621 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MORNING FOG WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. A MILD START TO THE DAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH TO AROUND 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT PASSES. A H5 RIDGE AXIS IS STILL OVER CWA AND OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC FRONT CROSSES. THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY APPEARS TO BE FROM HEAVY RAINS AND WET MICROBURSTS IN THE CORES OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS WILL BE A VERY ISOLATED THREAT LIMITED TO THE CORES THEMSELVES. HEAT INDICES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL APPROACH 100 ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES ON SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE MOST ROBUST FROPA AND NEXT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ATTM GIVEN A WIDE RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. HIGHS AFTER TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO THE MORE NORMAL AND MORE COMFORTABLE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR SHORTWAVES. ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST. AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS). WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO THE AVAILABLE FORCING. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF A CDFNT. SCATTERED CONVECTION OUT OVER IL/WRN INDIANA WILL WORK EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAFS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY IN THE AFTN OVER THE WRN TAFS. ADDED A TEMPO PERIOD OF TSRA BETWEEN 19-21Z AT KCVG/KLUK/KDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED. FNT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY 00Z. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT POST FRONTAL. RIGHT NOW KEPT IT SCATTERED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT INCASE IT COME SIN AS A MVFR DECK. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES

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