Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 190947 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 447 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front will lift north through the day allowing for unseasonably warm air and the potential for record temperatures by Tuesday. An unsettled weather pattern will remain in place through the week allowing for multiple rounds of rain across the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will move across the region today. The greatest coverage in precipitation will be this morning and then the focus of the heavier precipitation will shift along and north of Dayton to Columbus later in the day. There is some weak instability that develops southeast of Interstate 71 later today and therefore have a slight chance of thunder in then as well. With strong WAA, temperatures will be able to rise today despite precipitation and cloud cover. Went with high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s northwest of Dayton where there will be the most precipitation coverage through the day. The warmest temperatures will be along and south of the Ohio River where high temperatures are expected to reach into the lower 70s. A few wind gusts have already occurred and expect this to increase through the day with wind gusts up to 30 mph. Record high temperatures for today are at CVG 74 set in 1939 (forecast high 71), at CMH 70 set in 1939 (forecast high 66), and at DAY 70 set in 1939 (forecast high 65). With the widespread precipitation moving into the region this morning, cannot rule out some isolated flooding issues however do not think that flooding will be a widespread enough concern for a flood watch at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Temperatures will not drop much overnight tonight with southerly flow continuing. The area will be on the edge of a continuous stream of moisture. The greatest chance for showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms will be across northwestern portions of the forecast area northwest of Dayton. It is also across this area where temperatures will be slightly cooler than the remainder of the area on Tuesday due to the rainfall potential. Warm air will continue to surge into the region on Tuesday. The most breaks in the clouds will be southeast of Interstate 71 and therefore this is also the area that will see the highest temperatures. Have high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s across northwestern portions of the forecast area to the upper 70s along and south of the Ohio River and up into portions of the Scioto Valley. If there ends up being a little more in the way of scattered showers then temperatures will likely be a little cooler. Record high temperatures for Tuesday are at CVG 72 set in 1891 and 2016 (forecast high 77), at CMH 68 set in 1891 and 2016 (forecast high 74), and at DAY 69 set in 2016 (forecast high 72).
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Active pattern into the weekend will bring multiple rounds of rain. With ground already saturated, there will be a persistent elevated flood potential. A cold front will move into the forecast area late Tuesday night and progress southeast of the area by Wednesday afternoon. 00Z guidance is showing some timing discrepancies with this feature. Leaned towards the ECMWF which is supported by SREF mean. Rain will occur generally along and behind the front. Some weak instability is forecast to develop with the boundary, so cannot rule out a bit of thunder. Looks like greatest rainfall will occur in the northwest counties with amounts decreasing as the rain progresses southeast. However, a wave traveling along the front after it clears the area will bring another surge of rain, especially across the southern counties, later Wednesday night into Thursday. Amounts with this secondary area may end up being greater than initially behind the front in the southeast. Precipitable water will be very high (over 200 percent of normal), so rain could be very efficient with locally moderate to heavy amounts. Areal average rainfall for this two day period looks to range from .75 in to 1.5 in. Temperatures will remain very warm ahead of the front with readings dropping on Wednesday as it passes through the area. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday night and Thursday but still be above normal. High pressure moving across the Great Lakes will try to ridge south into the forecast area late Thursday, but this will be brief. A warm front will lift into the area late Thursday night into Friday. The high precipitable water will return with this front. Low pressure traveling along the boundary will bring another round of rain on Friday. The front may sag back south after this wave passes, but return again late Saturday as a stronger area of low pressure approaches. This will result in more rain into Sunday. Rainfall amounts will likely be enhanced as each of these lows track through the area. Temperatures will remain mild for this time of year, especially lows.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. Low level wind shear will be possible overnight. Lower CIGS will move into the region overnight and into the day on Monday with a warm frontal boundary. An area of showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms will move into the TAF sites Monday morning. This main area of precipitation will lift northwards by late morning. A few showers will remain for the afternoon, but primarily dry conditions will be present. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but probability was too low to include at this time. Winds will pick up for the afternoon and early evening hours with wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbilities to return Tuesday night into Wednesday night. MVFR conditions possible at times Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.