Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271802 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 202 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE CAA. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A SCATTERED FLURRY OR SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA FOR THE END OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY. PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW TO SE. LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...SITES

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