Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 170023 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 723 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front will continue to push northward this evening. A cold front will move through on Tuesday. An upper level disturbance will keep precipitation chances in the forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Warm front continues to lift northward. Lower vsbys and cooler temperatures are near and north of this feature. Patchy to areas of fog will continue tonight across northern and western portions of the area with lots of low level moisture in place. In addition a couple rounds of rain will move through and expect vsbys to be lowered with breaks in the rain. Do not expect temperatures to really fall much overnight with southerly flow. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will move through on Tuesday. There is some weak instability and therefore have some thunder mention in the forecast. Although there will be a lull in the precipitation Tuesday afternoon and early evening a decent upper level disturbance will bring scattered rain showers to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The greatest coverage of the shower activity will be across northeastern portions of the region. Some lingering drizzle will be possible on Wednesday before precipitation tapers off. Even as precipitation tapers off on Wednesday lots of low level moisture remains and keep clouds around through the day on Wednesday. High pressure and dry conditions are expected Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High amplitude upper air pattern with energetic systems will prevail through the period. Upper low in the Plains will open up as it pivots north. This will result in low pressure tracking up the Ohio Valley and weakening as it heads into the lower Great Lakes early in the period. Showers will accompany this system Thursday night into Friday. After this moves by, southerly flow will remain with much above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. A large upper low will track into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and then turn northeast on Monday bringing more showers to the region. Cannot rule out a bit of thunder as well. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The initial band of showers is overspreading the area early this evening. As this leading band has approached, cigs have actually gone VFR across much of the area. Will therefore go a bit more optimistic with the cigs in the early stages of the TAFs but as the low levels saturate back up, do expect cigs to drop back down into IFR category later this evening and into tonight. After the initial band, it looks like we may see a couple hour lull in the precipitation before the next wave of rain moves in overnight. This is associated with decent short wave energy and a strengthening 40-50 knot 925-850 mb low level jet rotating up across the region. Some marginal elevated instabilities will also be pulled up into the area later tonight so think a few thunderstorms are not out of the question. Would expect the best chance for this to be at the southern TAF sites so will include a VCTS at KCVG/KLUK for a few hours later tonight. Given the strengthening jet, low level wind shear will also be possible overnight but both the NAM and GFS keep bulk shear values just below 40 knots through the night (although the stronger LLJ on the RAP does meet criteria at times in the 06Z-12Z time frame). Rain showers will continue into Tuesday morning until a cold front pushes east across the area through late morning. Behind the front, winds will swing around to the west and become a little gusty through the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday. MVFR/ IFR ceilings are again possible Thursday afternoon through Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

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