Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 280959 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 459 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING. A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF MID CLOUDS. HOWEVER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. GENERALLY WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. BUT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN FLUX. INITIALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW. BUT AS WARMING OCCURS ALOFT THERE WILL BE A MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE SNOW/RAIN MIX WILL PROGRESS FURTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER MOST PLACES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. AREAS WITH RAIN OR A MIX MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION STARTING TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM ABOUT CINCINNATI TO LANCASTER. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE MARGINAL BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ICE AS WELL EARLY SUNDAY FELT THAT THE ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. FURTHER NORTH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF COMPACTING AND/OR MELTING ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
00Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THERE WILL BE A STRONG NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT IN THE OVERRUNNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHALLOW COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION STARTING AS A WINTRY MIX...PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL GET PUSHED OUT TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SO RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION THE SNOW PACK WILL MELT DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. THUS THERE REMAINS A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT WITH STRONG FORCING WILL HAVE TO BE COGNIZANT OF A POTENTIAL QLCS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY ONCE IT GETS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY SURGE OF PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THERE COULD BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THAT. ENTIRE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS SHUNTED FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR PRECIPITATION TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BUT A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE TAF SITES SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS SNOW AND HAVE SNOW MOVING IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF SITE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AS WELL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ063>065-070>072-077. KY...NONE. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-059. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ066-073-074.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.