Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181050 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 650 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA....BRINGING A CHANCE OF FROST. A DRY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FEW LIGHT ECHOS ARE DROPPING THE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ARE PROBABLY NO MORE THAN SPRINKLES ATTM. A SHARP S/W TROF WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE FA TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THUS SO WILL PCPN CHANCES. OVERALL THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER ANYWHERE. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...LIMITING HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... BY 00Z THIS EVENING THE S/W TROF HAS SWUNG E OF THE FA...TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT SC OFF OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND ERIE IS POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT IT TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN. COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NW 2/3RD OF THE FA TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. FROST SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME...SO WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CVG-ILN-LHQ. EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING SOME CI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PCPN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N/W HALF OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. A CDFNT WILL ADVANCE ON THE REGION MONDAY HELPING TO FOCUS THE LIFT. KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MVFR STRATOCU DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...SCATTERING OUT IN THE 3-6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 2-3KFT BUT WILL DROP BELOW THIS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL DROP CIGS BELOW 2KFT FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF TIME LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY MIX OUT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 12-14KT WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT NOT TOP OUT MUCH PAST 22KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MIX OUT CLOUDS AND LET WINDS SLACK IN THE LATE EVENING. FEW TO SCT CU WILL OCCUR FOR SUNDAY. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-080. KY...NONE. IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073-074. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...FRANKS

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