Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270518 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 118 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP A MOISTURE FEED AND HELP THE STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON SOUTHERLY WINDS IS SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE MCS OUTFLOW CURRENTLY RUNNING INTO EASTERN INDIANA. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY OF THESE ARE PRODUCING MORE THAN HEAVY RAINFALL AT THIS MOMENT. AREA FROM INDY TO CINCY STILL REMAINS A FAVORED SECTION FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND THEN TRAVERSE SOUTHEAST. ENTIRE REGION OF STORMS WILL CROSS INTO OHIO AND THE NORTHERN SECTION APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT EASTWARD MOTION TO IT TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A NICE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN SECTION APPEARS TO HAVE A MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT BUT THE ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO SEE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE LINE OF STORMS AND MORE CONTINUED STEADY MODERATE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEHIND THEM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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ONGOING STORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THEN GET AN ADDED KICK OF ENERGY AND UPWARD MOTION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING INTO THE AREA. TRIED TO SHOW AN EASTWARD MOVE TO THE BACK EDGE OF THE STORMS WITH THE FLOOD WATCH...CANCELING SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK AND STRIPPING A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES LATER IN THE MORNING. IN THE EASTERN 1/2 OR SO OF CWA...STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING WILL BECOME MORE DISCRETE AND HAVE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ROTATION WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN. THIS WOULD ENHANCE THEIR CORES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES DUE TO THE WIND PROFILES. THE STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER IN TIME FOR THIS AREA. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST AND THE WINDS TURN WEST...MARKING A SHUTOFF TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND REDUCING THE THREAT FOR STORMS TO PERSIST. THE ACTUAL AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT CROSS UNTIL OVERNIGHT AND THE COLD AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE NORTH UNDER A PRETTY SOLID OVERCAST DECK. TRANSITIONED THUNDERSTORMS TO SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE H5 TROF LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT IS DROPPING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. THIS COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE AN ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET MONDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NW FLOW AT H5 WILL KEEP COOL AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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EXITING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD LEAVE THE TERMINALS PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SOME CLEARING UPSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH THIS CLEARING MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SUNRISE. AM NOT FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...MVFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ070-071-077- 078. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065- 072>074-079>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>096. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ097-098. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ099-100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ058-066- 073>075-080. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ059.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...LATTO

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