Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191839 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 239 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Surface high pressure extending from the western Great Lakes to the Mississippi River Valley will extend across the region this afternoon. The ridge will then move east of our area tonight. A cold front will push southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night, bringing showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Precipitation may linger into Tuesday as a disturbance moves across the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Surface high pressure overhead this afternoon will slowly push east tonight with clouds also slowly eroding this evening. High temperatures will also average in the mid 40s across the region as clouds have helped to keep temperatures down a bit. Tonight low temperatures will be in the mid 30s with weak southerly flow returning Monday morning. Cirrus will also start to move into the area Monday morning as the next upper level disturbance approaches from the west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Monday morning surface high pressure will be east of the region with pressure falls occurring over the midwestern United States. Also at this time weak pockets of PVA in the mid-levels will be traversing the region. Adding to the lift will be weak widespread WAA ahead of a low level trough axis. The GFS is fairly weak with the PVA but still has enough of a disturbance for weak lift (via Omega) to occur over the area. The NAM is slightly stronger with the disturbance and has correspondingly higher Omega values. Not surprisingly the ARW, NMM, NCEP WRF, WRF Dart, and NSSL WRF all show a decaying system of weak storms Monday morning in some form or fashion. Forecast soundings at this time don`t look all that impressive on the GFS (not fully saturated) but there is a stout inversion in place at 900 mb. The NAM forecast soundings look similar to the GFS but show better saturation. Both soundings show the inversion at 900 mb which support the development of elevated thunderstorms. 850 to 500 mb lapse rates on the NAM also approach 7 degrees C/ km. Monday afternoon into evening another weak upper level disturbance will approach from the west with a disorganized surface low. The NAM tries to pull the surface low further east than the GFS which allows for slightly higher MU CAPE values. A surface cold front will also be pushing through at this time. Again high res models show a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms forming along the front. Given the lapse rates some small hail will be possible in any stronger storms that form. Monday night the cold front will push south of the forecast area with high pressure building in from the north.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Frontal boundary will be south of the Ohio River on Tuesday. With models trending toward a drier solution showing the front farther south, kept a chance of showers mainly in southern locations. As the upper flow turns northwest, surface high pressure is forecast to provide dry weather on Wednesday. Unsettled conditions are expected to return Thursday and Friday when a warm front develops near the Southern Great Lakes, resulting in a chance of showers mainly in northern counties. A cold front swinging through on Saturday will bring the likelihood for showers and a few thunderstorms. A few showers may linger Sunday in residual moisture and forcing behind the slow moving front. Temperatures will exhibit variations typical of early spring. Highs in the 50s Tuesday will be followed by readings around 40 Wednesday under cold advection on a northerly flow. Highs will rise to the 60s by Friday with the area in the warm sector. Highs are forecast to settle back into the 50s Sunday due to weaker cold advection.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Widespread stratocu/ cu have continued across the TAF sites this afternoon as low pressure pushes off the coast of the eastern seaboard. Diurnal heating has helped to slowly raise cloud bases towards VFR with all TAF sites going VFR this afternoon. Overnight skies will clear with only some passing cirrus overhead as high pressure temporarily builds in. Monday morning forecast soundings begin to quickly resaturate as pieces of mid-level energy approaches the area from the west. As of current the new 12z model runs have started to hint at a piece of vorticity pushing overhead around 15z Wednesday. The latest suite of high res models also shows weakening storms moving into the area Monday morning due to this. There is some elevated CAPE in forecast soundings so thunder will be possible. Confidence remains low at this time so have left mention of morning storms out of the TAFs. Future TAF packages will continue to have to evaluate this. Monday afternoon into evening weakening surface low pressure will push east across the area ahead of a surface cold front. Confidence with this system is higher. Again, elevated instability appears likely. For now have just added the mention of showers. Ceilings will also be lowering to MVFR during the afternoon with visibilities restricted in any of the heavier downpours. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Haines

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