Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260222 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1022 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE COOL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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SC ASSOCIATED WITH H5 LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED HOWEVER. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS THE CLOUDS COME AND GO OVERNIGHT. BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXTRA CLOUDINESS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FA WHEN ANOTHER BATCH OF PVA IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S THURSDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND SOLAR RADIATION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 25.12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS AND THE GEFS MEAN. THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS MEMBERS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY HOWEVER AS ERIKA COMES INTO THE PICTURE. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES DECREASES APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY WHILE A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. VARIOUS RUN TO RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THEY TRY TO GET A HANDLE ON ERIKA`S TRACK. THE 12Z GFS MORPHS THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW THAT RETROGRADES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHEREAS ITS 06Z RUN WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH SHEARS OUT THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVER OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIDE SPREAD...GOING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS FOR MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THEIR SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON DEVELOPING A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...INDICATING A RETURN TO SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING HAVE NOTICED SOME DISSIPATION IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE SO THAT CVG/LUK GO SCATTERED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL DISSIPATION AFTER 06Z...WHICH MIGHT ALLOW THE CLOUDS AT THE NRN TAFS TO GO SCATTERED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS WHETHER ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. A PRETTY DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD BE BELOW THE DEWPOINT...SUGGESTING FOG. RIGHT NOW WENT WITH PREVAILING FOG ONLY AT LUK. KEPT THE PREVAILING FOG AT MVFR WITH A TEMPO DOWN TO IFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE WENT WITH TEMPO MVFR FOG AT ILN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 12Z. ANOTHER VORT LOBE WILL SWING AROUND THE LOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING VFR CIGS BACK INTO THE TAFS AFTER 12Z. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...SITES

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