Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211238 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 838 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD EVEN SEE IT FILL IN A BIT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE A LITTLE MORE. PCPN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WILL NONE THE LESS NUDGE UP POPS INTO HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TAPERING BACK TO ISOLATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL CAA...DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS DROP. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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