Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220813 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 413 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will track through the Ohio Valley bringing rain to the region today into tonight. Dry conditions return for Saturday into early next week, with a return of rain to the region Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A pair of systems to affect the weather across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes today. A High amplitude southern stream short wave will be weakening as it passes south of the region thru the Lower MS Valley into the Gulf States. Meanwhile, a fast moving, lower amplitude northern stream system will cross the Great Lakes. Airmass is rather dry to start out with weak lift ahead of a warm front resulting in the development of rain showers. Expect rain showers to generally hold off until afternoon based on initial dry airmass. These rain showers to affect areas along and south of the Ohio River and then overspread the entire area by mid to late afternoon with pops in the chance category ramping up to likely late in the day. Rainfall through the daylight hours will be less than a tenth of an inch. Temperatures to warm to highs from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Fast moving, low amplitude northern stream shortwave to cross the Great Lakes. Moisture and lift increase this evening as associated surface wave and front move thru the area. Have pops increasing to categorical early across the eastern half of ILN/s forecast area - with the highest pops east of I-71. Surface cold front will move through tonight which will usher in much cooler air along with breezy conditions. Rain showers may briefly mix with and change to snow showers across the north prior to ending late tonight. No accumulation is expected from these snow showers. Lows tonight to range from the upper 20s northwest to near 40 southeast. Surface high pressure to build into the area Saturday with morning clouds giving way to increasing sunshine. Temperatures look to be 7 to 10 degrees below normal with highs ranging from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Focus during this time period will be on the deep storm system moving through the Mississippi River Valley and the wet weather it will bring on Tuesday. At this time, hazardous weather still does not seem to be in cards for the WFO ILN forecast area. In the details, Saturday night/Sunday will feature high pressure initially over Michigan on Saturday night, and then drifting off into southeast Canada on Sunday. Dry northeasterly and then easterly flow will be feeding into the area around the high, so plenty of clear skies are in the offing, with low humidities and slightly below normal temperatures /lower 50s/ for Sunday after a frosty Saturday night. Warming begins Sunday night as winds turn southeasterly and then eventually southerly on Monday under height rises and deep southwesterly flow aloft as progressive longwave trough digs into the Intermountain West and then east into the Plains, taking on negative tilt as it does. Deep surface cyclone /sub-990mb surface pressures/ to move out into the KS/IA area on Monday, ejecting rapidly northeast into MN/WI by sunset on Monday. Given the southeast/southerly trajectories of the lower level flow on Monday, this should be a rather dry / lower theta-e airstream so am keeping Monday dry as moistening / thickening clouds should be centered rather high aloft. Temperatures though should respond nicely and surge well above normal, with 60s areawide during the day on Monday under thickening mid/high clouds. Well-agreed-upon and consistent arc of strong forcing ahead of the occluded front with the filling/weakening low on Monday night and Tuesday should enter the forecast area during this time with shield of rain/showers. Right now, most areas should remain under an inch of rainfall with this system as this rain crosses the area, but probabilities of > 1" have been creeping northward toward the ILN CWA in recent ensemble trends, though still remaining south/west of the area. If system slows /deeper surface low/ further could see some potential of heavier rains into the Tri-State, but right now vast majority of ensemble members are not in this camp. Dewpoints peaking in the lower 50s should preclude the formation of deeper instability during peak heating on Tuesday, so thunder threats seem pretty low right now but those details admittedly low confidence right now. There is still some measure of timing discrepancy - enough when in combination with the mid level trough axis not clearing the area until later Wednesday, that shower chances need to remain in the forecast at least in some capacity during most of the day on Wednesday despite the bulk of the rainfall falling Tuesday. System clears the area by Thursday, with dry weather returning and temperatures remaining seasonable.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions to prevail overnight into the first part of Friday. Rain showers will develop Friday afternoon ahead of a warm front lifting north into the Ohio Valley. These showers will become more widespread affecting the TAF sites late in the day into the evening hours as a wave of low pressure tracks across the area. Can not rule out an embedded thunderstorm along and south of the Ohio River but probability and coverage is too low to mention in the TAF forecast at this time. As the low and frontal boundary works east through the area this evening, MVFR ceilings will develop across the TAF sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and gusty winds possible late tonight into Saturday and again Monday night into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Binau AVIATION...AR

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