Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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991 FXUS61 KILN 231911 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 311 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move through the area today, with chances for showers continuing into Tuesday and Wednesday, as a trough of low pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes. High pressure will move into the area late in the week, with a slight increase in temperatures. Another cold front will move into the area late on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Surface low pressure is currently located near Fort Wayne, Indiana. The overall surface pressure pattern remains somewhat convoluted, with as many as four separate trough axes forecast to rotate eastward through the ILN CWA between this past morning and the overnight hours. The initial axis, which led to the fine-line on radar, has mostly cleared the area. Next up is the actual cold front -- marked by a clearing in the rain, a sharp shift to WSW winds, and a drop in temperatures into the 50s. Two additional bands of rain are expected to move through the area later on -- one during the late evening and one during the early morning. PoPs were increased for the overnight hours in order to cover these chances for rain, but heavy rain is not expected. Wind grids were also a challenge, as the wind direction is expected to change numerous times as the troughs move through.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Large scale troughing over the Great Lakes will keep a cool and moist weather pattern in place over the Ohio Valley through Tuesday. With that said, subsidence behind the early morning wave might help to keep precipitation to a minimum over the ILN CWA through much of the day. As the main axis of the trough approaches late Tuesday afternoon into the evening, some light rain may begin to again overspread the area from the northwest. Strong cold advection at 850mb will be ongoing through the short term forecast period, leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Because of this, some gusty winds will be possible -- up to 30 knots in the northern sections of the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to be in the 50s for highs, and while some lower 40s to upper 30s are expected for min temps late Tuesday night, the winds should keep frost potential low.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Wednesday morning a potent upper level low will be pulling northeast towards the Hudson Bay. 850 mb temperatures Wednesday will be a degree or two below zero with clouds hanging around the area. This will keep high temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s or close to 15 degrees below normal. Thursday morning the upper level low will pull northeast as the upper level trough axis begins to modulate. A frost still looks possible Thursday morning, but it doesn`t look as cold as in previous model runs. Even tough skies are forecast to clear surface high pressure is now pushed south with a tighter pressure gradient/ slightly stronger winds across the area. During the day Thursday low level thermal profiles will continue to recover and with mostly sunny skies high temperatures will likely be in the 60s. This warm up will be brief though as near 590 dm heights off of the Washington coast allows another potent shortwave to dive south. Late Friday morning the surface cold front will be entering our western zones with colder air behind. PWATs along the front are expected to surge to around 0.80" and with sufficient upper level jet support have gone ahead and raised PoPs. Saturday through Monday the region will dry out with temperatures falling 10 to 15 degrees below normal. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be only 5 degrees below zero which will easily make high temperatures only in the upper 40s some days. Overnight lows will also be near freezing Sunday and Monday mornings with surface high pressure building in from the west.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Occasional chances for rain will continue over the next 12-18 hours of the forecast, along with numerous wind shifts between westerly and southerly directions. The major shifts have been covered in the TAFs, along with an extended period of MVFR ceilings expected later today and into the overnight. Some temporary IFR ceilings may need to be added to the forecast later. Tomorrow, ceilings are expected to gradually lift to VFR, with gusty SW winds of up to 25 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible at times through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Hatzos SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Hatzos

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