Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271845 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 245 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east through the Ohio Valley today and tonight. As the high moves east tomorrow, warmer air will begin to move into the region, with an increase in temperatures expected through the rest of the week. Chances for storms will increase on Thursday, and especially for Friday and Saturday, as a front gradually moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The center of an area of surface high pressure is currently centered in south-central Indiana, drifting east-southeastward over the rest of the day. With the ILN CWA on the northeastern periphery of the high, light WNW flow at the surface will gradually dissipate this evening, with winds backing and lightening going into the overnight hours. After the cumulus field dissipates, clear skies are expected overnight. Looks a little too dry for much fog, but the radiational cooling conditions appear favorable for a drop in temperatures into the lower 50s. Could even have some upper 40s in outlying sections of the CWA, especially in the eastern half. This is a slight downward departure from the previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... By Wednesday morning, the surface high will be centered over the Appalachians of West Virginia and Virginia, continuing to move east of the region. The air mass in place over the Ohio Valley will be quite dry, with 850mb moisture projections suggesting that diurnal cumulus clouds may be hard to come by. As ridging builds into the area, there will eventually be a slight increase in high clouds. This will do little to stop an obvious warming trend, as the switch to southerly flow will be pronounced -- not just at the surface, but with southwesterly warm advection aloft through the 850mb-700mb layer. Max temperatures will rebound to values close to normal -- near 80 to lower 80s from northeast to southwest. With the pattern, will take the higher end of the SREF envelope, and slightly above a NAM/GFS model consensus. Clouds will continue to increase from the NW on Wednesday night, with some concern for convection to reach the northwestern ILN counties before 12Z Thursday morning. This may be MCS-driven and thus hard to forecast at this point, but the more likely scenario would be to keep things upstream, and thus only low-end PoPs will be kept in the forecast for early Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Summertime pattern will be in place for the long term with high temperatures in the 80s and low temperatures in the 60s to around 70. Went close to the superblend for temperatures during this time. Several weak disturbances will work through the region through the long term period. Again, went close to the superblend for precipitation chances as well. There is decent instability across northwestern portions of the forecast area Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours therefore cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Without any decent forcing limited precipitation chances to the chance category for the long term except for Monday night. There is a little better signal during this time and also better model consistency therefore felt more confident in the higher precipitation chances during this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... With high pressure in place, generally tranquil conditions are expected through the TAF period, with VFR conditions. Scattered cumulus clouds (4kft-5kft) have developed today, and will dissipate by evening. WNW winds today will shift to the SW and become much weaker overnight. Though the air mass is dry, some fog is expected at KLUK, but will keep the forecast in the MVFR/IFR range rather than LIFR. Tomorrow, winds will shift again to the south, and will increase in strength to around 8-12 knots (gusts are possible at KDAY). Clouds should be limited to cirrus and a slight chance of some VFR cumulus development. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times from Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Hatzos SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Hatzos

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