Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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749 FXUS61 KILN 220635 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 235 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring organized showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, then drier and cooler air moves in for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Thunderstorms pushing rapidly through NW Indiana, with HRRR and WRF forecasting a diminishing as progresses eastward, have sped up the onset of precipitation slightly, as confidence low in the diminishing trend. Increased cloud cover and moderated overnight lows slightly.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Strong H5 s/w will be swinging through the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Line of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to drop into the region 15-18Z. Shear of 35-40 kts and CAPE around 700 J/kg will support strong to severe thunderstorms. Timed the convection through the region in the after along what appears to be a pre-frontal trough. With the region in slight risk will keep mention in the HWO of possible severe weather. There could be a secondary line of showers that is lingering across the south in the evening. After that moves south, Tuesday night should be dry. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A very quiet weather pattern will be in place for most of the long term period. High pressure and dry conditions will start out the long term on Wednesday. With CAA on Wednesday expect an extensive cu field to develop. A weak upper level disturbance will work into northeastern portions of the forecast area on Thursday allowing for a few showers. In addition expect another day of cu to develop with CAA. Dry conditions return for Friday and Saturday with high pressure. There are some model differences on how quickly precipitation begins to work into the region with the next system, however trends have been to slow down the precipitation. Due to this have Sunday daytime dry and begin to bring precipitation chances into the forecast area Sunday night into Monday. Decreased temperatures slightly from the superblend Wednesday through Saturday. High temperatures during this time will generally be in the 70s. Lows will typically be in the 50s, however some isolated upper 40s will be possible across northern portions of the region Thursday night and Friday night. Temperatures will be slightly warmer for Sunday and Monday with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the period, with current thinking of convection in 2 rounds, first the prefrontal trough in the 15-18z timeframe, then redevelopment closer to the actual front with most likely affected locations the KCMH/KLCK sites where instability and forcing more favorable. Could be occasional MVFR in moderate rain in especially these locations. OUTLOOK...No significant weather.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR/Haines/Sites NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM... AVIATION...JDR

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