Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 030203 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1003 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL UNDERCUT A STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION NEAR OR ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WILL SEE INCREASED HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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SKY COVER REMAINS PROBLEMATIC FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WE HAVE SEEN SOME DECENT HOLES OPEN UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE 925 MB FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH...SOME OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN THIS AND THE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT BELOW THE INVERSION LATER TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REGION WILL SEE SOME DRY AIR MIXING IN LATE...BUT A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER SIDE TO ERR ON GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ONLY STARTING TO MAKE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING ALONG OR AT LEAST NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AVAILABLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF IT NEAREST THE OHIO/WV LINE. IF SUN DOES MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IF PRESENT WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AND ENHANCE ANY UPWARD MOTION FOUND DURING THE LATE DAY. DID NOT CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MODELS WERE VERY MUTED IN QPF BULLS EYES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE A COLD POOL SHOWER EVENT WITH NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTIONS AVAILABLE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW 80S THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL WARM TO AROUND 60 WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER 60S THURS NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME ISSUES ON HOW STRONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND HOW FAST IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN THAT THE DYNAMICS ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A LULL IN TERMS OF THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH BETTER DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION. LOW CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO BREAK UP OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO WITH KCMH AND KILN BOTH SCATTERING OUT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. A QUICK LOOK AT THE RAW 00Z ILN SOUNDING IS STILL SHOWING A NICE INVERSION AROUND 3500 FEET SO AM CONCERNED THAT MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT MIXED AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR. IF FOR SOME REASON THE LOWER CIGS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND DO NOT REDEVELOP...WOULD THINK WE WOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT THEN SEEING AT LEAST SOME MVFR BR DEVELOPMENT IN THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME. SO FROM A CATEGORICAL VIEWPOINT...THINK IT IS BEST TO REMAIN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND STICK WITH PERSISTENCE AND EITHER HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS OR ALLOW FOR THEM TO REDEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HAVE SCATTERED OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST. ASSUMING THE LOWER CIGS ARE PRESENT WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEY SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO VFR THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...JGL

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