Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260158 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 958 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly flow ahead of low pressure will provide warm temperatures and mainly dry weather this afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight through Sunday as the area of low pressure approaches from the west. Another upper level disturbance will then move across the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday providing a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms for the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A weakening area of showers stretching from central Indiana into central Kentucky has been progressing very slowly eastward this evening. The latest HRRR is showing this pcpn continuing to weaken as it spreads into our western areas tonight. A better chance of showers will work into our southwest late tonight ahead of a stronger vort axis that will pivot up toward our area. Have made some tweaks to the pops to slow down the pcpn a few hours. Instability will be marginal at best overnight and this should help limit any thunder.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Later Sunday morning the upper level low will take on a negative tilt as it pulls northeast towards the Great Lakes. As this happens low level temperatures will fall and work together with daytime heating to steepen low level lapse rates. NAM forecast soundings are showing MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg while the GFS is showing values slightly higher, around 1200 J/kg. At the same time areas of PV will be rotating around the upper level low providing a source of lift. In general, global and high res models are indicating the best lift across our eastern zones Sunday afternoon with a secondary source of PV in association with the low moving into the western zones. Forecast soundings on both the NAM and GFS have k index values in the low 30s Sunday afternoon with LI values briefly turning negative. PWATs at this time are also around 1.00". Due to the ample moisture, sufficient lift, and instability have kept likely PoPs or greater for Sunday afternoon. It should also be noted that at this time 0 - 3km bulk shear is around ~30kts. Thanks to the shear, instability, low level lapse rates SPC has the area in a marginal risk for isolated small hail and gusty winds. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will taper off Sunday night as an upper level disturbance moves to the east. There will be a lull in the precipitation for much of the day on Monday before an upper level disturbance moves through Monday night into Tuesday. Precipitation will taper off Tuesday night. Moisture will be trapped across the area for Wednesday therefore increased sky cover and decreased temperatures some for Wednesday. The next system will begin to bring rain shower chances to the region on Thursday. Precipitation is expected to become more widespread Thursday night into Friday as a low pressure system nears the region. A cold front will move through Friday night. Precipitation chances will begin to decrease after the passage of this feature. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The leading line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is currently stretching from central Indiana down into central Kentucky. This line has been making a very slow eastward push and as we start to lose some of the diurnal heating, expect to see some weakening as it finally pushes into our western areas later this evening. As a result, will just allow for a vcsh late this evening and into the early morning hours at the western taf sites. A stronger mid level vort axis will rotate up across the area from the southwest late tonight into Sunday morning, eventually allowing for more widespread showers to develop from southwest to northeast. This should also allow for cigs and possibly vsbys to trend down into MVFR as we progress through Sunday morning. Instability remains fairly limited through the morning hours so think thunder chances will remain low enough to leave mention of thunder out of the TAFS through the morning. As we better destabilize through the afternoon hours, will go ahead and include a vcts to cover the thunder threat. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible late Monday into Tuesday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL

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