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449
FXUS63 KILX 082030
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight
  through tomorrow as a low pressure area and a weak surface
  front push through the area.

- Cooler weather is on tap for the end of the week with overnight
  lows dipping into the 40s Thursday night through Saturday night.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...  
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(Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Showers and storms are still possible this evening across portions
of the CWA, however, the strongest storms should remain south of
the central IL. The only area that might see stronger to severe
storms will be in southeast IL...roughly south of I-70. North of
this line, some of the storms should be more isolated and could
actually be embedded at times in the stratiform rain. This could
pose a lightning hazard for outdoor activities. As the 500mb mid
level trough rotates through the CWA on Thursday night, there is a
small chance (around 20%) for showers to occur in the evening over
the northern portion of the CWA...roughly along and north of
I-72/Danville.

Temps will be lower tomorrow as cloud cover and northwest to
north winds bring slightly cooler air into the state.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Relatively dry weather is expected for the weekend, though a weak
trough will rotate through parts of the state with a chance of
light precip along and northeast of I-74 Friday night. The next
chance of precip will be the beginning of next week...Monday, and
continue into the middle of next week. The overall pattern for
this period will be messy with an upper level low pressure area
slowly moving across the US from the plains into the eastern US.

Temps will start off cooler for the beginning of the weekend, but
then warm back into the 70s starting on Sunday and continue
through next week.

Auten
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&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

All sites will start as VFR with only mid level cigs seen on
satellite for early this afternoon. Cigs will come down to around
5kft as more stratiform rain moves over the sites this afternoon.
Only site expected to see thunder will be SPI but will only have
as VCTS since storms will be well south of the area. Any lightning
in the SPI area will be from high anvil clouds. Other sites should
be well north of any lightning. Predominate showers will be seen
at PIA and BMI later this afternoon into this evening as a
inverted sfc trough rotates through the area. Other sites will
have VCSH into the late evening hours, then ending around
midnight. Cigs will also drop into MVFR category for later this
evening and continue into the overnight hours. In the morning,
cigs will drop further...into IFR category with 700-800ft
expected. Widely scattered showers may continue during the
overnight hours and into the morning, but believe scattered enough
to not warrant VCSH or predominate showers on station. Winds will
be south to southeast through the afternoon, however, westerly
winds are expected tomorrow morning at all sites. Wind speeds will
be around 10-12kts at all sites and through the TAF period.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$