National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KILX 140750
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
250 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will reach the lower 80s today and tomorrow, with lows
  only in the 50s to lower 60s.

- A strong storm system will affect the region Tuesday, with
  strong southerly winds likely gusting 35 to 40 mph, followed by
  showers and thunderstorms which could become severe especially
  late afternoon through late evening.

- Temperatures will turn much cooler late next week into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs reaching the
low to mid 80s. A cold front will drape over central Illinois
this evening, becoming stationary for Monday. This boundary will
allow the lows to be slightly cooler, in the 50s, tonight.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Thursday, though
dropping closer to normal that day. After a stronger cold front
passage on Thursday, temperatures will drop below normal for the
end of the week. All of central and southeastern Illinois are now
in the growing season, so this dip in overnight temperatures
starting Friday night could harm sensitive vegetation and any
crops that have started to grow. Lows next weekend look to be in
the upper 30s to low 40s. Actions to take would be to prepare to
protect any susceptible vegetation from the cold temperatures.

The timing of the cold front on Tuesday has slightly slowed down
further. During the afternoon on Tuesday, the environment looks to
be quite capped. Anything that develops early, before the main event
that night, is likely to be elevated with a hail threat. As the cap
erodes later that night, development has the potential to become
surface based. SBCAPE from 06-12z Wednesday appears to be 800-1000
J/kg. It continues to show substantial bulk shear ahead and along
the front, along with plenty of moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s).
We have the lift, moisture, and shear necessary for a decent severe
event. The limitation is overcoming the cap in the environment that
evening into the overnight hours. The new day 3 severe weather
outlook from the SPC has an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) region just
to the west of Schuyler County and all of the CWA in a slight risk
(level 2 out of 5).

Also associated with the low pressure system that is bringing the
stormy cold front, is the stronger winds Tuesday through
Wednesday afternoon outside of any convection that occurs. Based
on forecast sounds from the NAM and GFS, wind gusts of 30-40 knots
could mix down in the boundary layer. We could potentially see
wind gusts meeting wind advisory criteria during this time as the
tight pressure gradient traverses the central and southeastern
Illinois area. The gradient layout seems similar to last week`s
strong winds.

There could be another round of showers on Thursday as the cold
front that will be bringing drier and cooler days moves through.
Next weekend will be dry but much cooler.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
cirrus will move across the area and should remain FEW to SCT
through tomorrow. Winds will be south but become more south to
southwest as the ridge continues to move east. Southwest winds are
expected tomorrow but become lighter in the evening. Speeds
will be around 10-15 kts. Expecting an increase in speeds with
gusts of 20-25kts tomorrow. Also expecting wind shear to develop
tonight at all sites with gusts near 50kts possible...then
decreasing in the morning as the inversion mixes out.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$