Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 232232
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
632 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly clear tonight allowing for another freeze.

- A gusty to windy Monday will bring one other day in the 60s

- Moderate to heavy rainfall expected Monday Night-Tuesday Night

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Rest of Today and Tonight...

CAA through a moderate northerly wind has lead to low level height
rises over the Ohio Valley throughout the day, aiding in drying out
the near surface with mid 20 dew points. This has combated the CAA
slightly given efficient diurnal warming, leading to highs in the
mid to upper 40s across the area.

The steep low level lapse rates beneath the ridge have lead to an
area of flat diurnal cumulus, primary over N/W portions of the
state. These clouds should dissipate quickly this evening, leaving
mostly clear skies outside of some passing upper level cirrus.

An incoming low level ridge through height rises have dampen gusts,
leaving a sustained 10-15MPH northerly wind. This should continue to
diminish overnight as the ridge axis nears. Current expectation is
for sustained winds out of the N/NNE between 5-8MPH overnight.

Courser grid models have picked up on a subtle mid to upper level
shortwave within the polar jet, of which is currently over MO/IA.
This will push eastward overnight, providing enough lift for
increased mid to upper level clouds and even a few showers over IL.
These showers should evaporate as they reach Indiana with the low
level ridge still well established over the region. Still, an
increase in cloud cover is expected; with the only impact being a
slightly higher than expected low temperature for tonight.

Tomorrow...

Tomorrow we begin to transition into a warmer air regime with the low
level ridge passing off to the east and a deeper upper level trough
approaching from the west. Initially winds will veer towards
E/SE, with hint of WAA. This along with the dry surface layer
remaining should allow for temperatures to increase into the mid
50s for most of central Indiana. The approaching trough will also
increase winds, with some gusts by the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

An upper trough will be making its way towards the region early in
the long term period, bringing gusty winds and beneficial rain. The
associated surface low will swing through the central plains and
track NNE over the upper Great Lakes and into Canada. Tight pressure
gradients will form along the leading edge of the low and its cold
front, allowing for breezy winds both Monday and Tuesday that could
see sustained winds up to 25 mph and gusts up to 37 mph. Latest
models are showing a slightly later arrival of the rain, which is
now expected to arrive sometime Monday afternoon into the evening
hours. PWATs of up to 1.5 inches will still be possible, leading to
a good chance of a decent amount of rain with this system. At the
moment central Indiana could see widespread amounts above 0.75
inches. Lightning and localized heavy rain and flooding are the main
threats for the moment.

The front itself is set to move through late Tuesday, behind which a
surface high will quickly move in behind it, bringing with it dry
air. Quiet weather is expected through the rest of the week as the
high lingers around. The next chance of rain comes at the end of the
week but confidence is low at this time.

Temperatures will vary some through the period, starting off warm
with highs in the 60s on Monday, followed by the coolest day
Wednesday which is expected to see highs from the mid 40s to low
50s. Temps will warm back up into the 60s to near 70 by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Impacts:

- Winds veering to E/SE Sunday with gusts peaking at 20-25kts

Discussion:

Diurnal cu has largely diminished early this evening as the region
remains under the influence of a high pressure ridge centered to the
northeast. This will promote veering to an E/NE flow overnight with
gusts set to dissipate by sunset. An area of mid level clouds
associated with a weak wave aloft will pivot across the lower Great
Lakes late tonight and Sunday morning.

Clouds will diminish on Sunday as drier air overspreads the Ohio
Valley. Surface flow will veer to E/SE and become gusty as the
pressure gradient tightens in response to developing low pressure
over the central Plains. Mid and high clouds will increase once
again Sunday night.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Ryan


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