000
FXUS63 KIWX 231105
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
705 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain overspreading the area mid to late morning. An
  isolated thunderstorm in southern Michigan possible this evening.

- Frost and sub-freezing temperatures possible Thursday morning.

- Windy and warm this weekend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Slightly slower and flatter solution aloft to potent wave
disturbance over nw MN this morning as it digs into nw OH by late
evening. Exit region of strong upper jet translating sewd of this
wave driving a deepening frontal scale circulation seen in upstream
composite radar across srn NE attm and expect rapid
development/expansion ewd through nrn MO/far srn IA into daybreak.
Thereafter band expands/overspread through nrn IN and into se MI by aftn.
Strong 00Z concensus has shifted primary rain band north from prior
and followed suit with highest stripe of pops for today. Dry slot in
association with upper wave wraps ewd this evening and may illicit
isold thunder in srn MI where a modest EML within mid lvl
dryslot overlaps residual but diminishing low level moisture plume.

Another brief but sig push of cold air follows in behind this sys
Wed esp east half in proximity to ern lakes centered thermal trough.
Guidance 2m temps are quite cold here and mostly below freezing in
proximity to sfc ridge axis.

Dramatic rebound follows as pattern aloft across the CONUS flips in
response to sig wrn troughing that develops long term with warm and
unsettled wx developing. Blend looks a bit pop rich yet will mainly
hold with it given considerable w-e spread on frontal position this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 703 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Strong upper level jet dynamics will move across the area and
bring a quick round of rain. Kept ceiling conditions VFR (except
TEMPO MVFR at SBN) due to a dry atmosphere at the onset of rain
Otherwise, gusty winds will persist with a WSHFT behind the
front.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Skipper