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000
FXUS62 KJAX 160803
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
403 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRADDLES NORTH FL AND SE GA. THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM S
FL TO THE AL/MS COAST. RADAR SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS SOME OF WHICH ARE FLOWING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. A CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 5 AND 8
KFT HAS PUSHED NORTH OVERNIGHT COVERING THE SRN THIRD OF OUR AREA.
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH PWATS BECOMING 1.5 TO
1.7 INCHES BY AFTN. THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OVER NE FL SHOULD
FADE AWAY BY MID MORNING...THEN AS HEATING GETS UNDER WAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY NOON ACROSS INLAND NE FL.
HAVE ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST OF SE GA AND COASTAL ZONES. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE FROM SW TO NE. THE BEACHES WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN
TODAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT
TIMES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 83 ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN TO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING...THEN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER
OUR COASTAL WATERS AND ALSO MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON MON
COMBINING WITH SURFACE HEATING AND SEA BREEZES TO PRODUCE SCTD
SHOWERS/STORMS AREA WIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST
COAST IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDGE GETS SHUNTED TO THE SE
OF THE AREA THIS WEEK WHILE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH...
REACHING THE STATE BORDER ON WED AND THEN STALLING/WASHING
OUT ACROSS NE FL THU-FRI. THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE MOVES BACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY
WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE GA ON TUE-WED AND COASTAL SE GA
AND EXTREME NE FL THU-FRI. AS THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE LIFTS BACK
TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
MID WEEK...THEN WILL COOL TO NEAR CLIMO BY LATER IN THE WEEK
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CIGS AT SSI TIL AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE VFR.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND. HAVE VCTS AT GNV AFT
18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE REPORTING WINDS SE 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL
TRACK EAST EARLY THIS WEEK WITH S TO SE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SW MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
GA WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES TODAY THEN WINDS/WAVES
DECREASE ENOUGH NEAR THE COAST TO REDUCE RISK TO LOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  92  71 /  20  20  40  40
SSI  85  75  88  75 /  10  20  40  30
JAX  87  71  90  71 /  20  10  40  40
SGJ  84  74  87  73 /  20  20  40  40
GNV  89  71  92  70 /  40  30  30  20
OCF  90  72  92  71 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

TRABERT/PETERSON