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000
FXUS62 KJAX 231354
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
950 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT AFFECTED SE GA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SE GA AND NE FL
COAST MOVING EWD. NO FURTHER DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HRS
DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HELPING
TO STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY DECREASED
CONSIDERABLY.

WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE TO
SW ACROSS THE CWA FROM BRUNSWICK TO JUST N OF LIVE OAK AREA. IN
ADDITION...PREVAILING WLY FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SET UP NEAR THE E COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES WILL HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
MODIFIED SBCAPE YIELDS ABOUT 1650 J/KG AND LI OF -5 FOR 90/64.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS A BIT DRIER THAN YESTERDAY AND 700 MB
TEMP HAS WARMED ABOUT 2C. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER THE 1-3 PM TIME FRAME. STORM
MOTION MORE CERTAIN THAN YESTERDAY WITH MEAN FLOW AROUND 280-300 DEG
AT 15 KT. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST THIS MORNING AND WILL LEAVE
FCST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH WARMEST TEMPS INLAND
AREAS.

TONIGHT...ANY EVENING ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE SE GA ZONES BUT SHOULD
STAY ISOLD AT BEST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL DOMINATE. VCSH/VCTS LOOKS APPROPRIATE FOR TAFS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AT THIS TIME WLY AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. S TO SE
FLOW THIS AFTN. SEAS MAINLY DOMINATED BY WIND SEA/SWELL WITH PERIODS
OF 7 SECONDS.

RIP CURRENTS: MAINLY LOW RISK WITH SURF ABOUT 2 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  63  87  53 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  87  69  88  62 /  30  20  10   0
JAX  89  67  89  58 /  30  20  10   0
SGJ  87  70  87  66 /  30  20  10   0
GNV  91  65  91  59 /  20  10  10   0
OCF  90  66  92  61 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/CHASE