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000
FXUS62 KJAX 140113
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
913 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

.UPDATE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE PUSHES
SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE DIURNAL CONVECTION WAS FADING AS
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT 10% RAIN CHANCES FOR NE
FL AFTER 02Z...WITH 20% NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN. CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM N TO S AFTER 06Z OVER SE
GA AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING FRONTAL ENERGY COINCIDE
AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER A VERY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT SOME
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LARGE CAPE AND INCREASED WNW SHEAR IN
THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. HUMID AND STEAMY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ADVERTISED VCTS BETWEEN 08-10Z AS PRE-
FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION SHIFTS OVER SE GA AND TOWARD THE I-10
CORRIDOR IN NE FL.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO SSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  89  67  92 /  40  30  10   0
SSI  77  87  72  85 /  40  40  10   0
JAX  75  90  71  88 /  30  40  20  10
SGJ  76  88  73  86 /  20  40  30  10
GNV  74  92  71  92 /  20  40  30  20
OCF  74  92  72  92 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA/GUILLET