622
FXUS62 KJAX 281256
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
856 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track with breezy East-Southeast flow today.
Just enough low level moisture over the Atlantic Waters to keep
slight chance of sprinkles/isolated showers (15-20 percent)
pushing into the Atlantic Coastal counties at times to around the
I-95 corridor before fading. Breezy East surface winds increasing
to 15G25 mph along the coast this afternoon with 10G15-20 mph over
inland areas. Max temps in the upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast
in the onshore flow with highs in the 80-85 range over inland
areas. Similar conditions will continue tonight as winds diminish
with lows near 60 inland and near 70 along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 411 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Early morning surface analysis depicts gradually weakening high
pressure (1030 millibars) situated off the Mid-Atlantic coast,
with this feature continuing to wedge down the southeastern
seaboard. To the south of this surface ridge, a weak coastal
trough remains in place over our near shore Atlantic
waters. Aloft...ridging remains situated along the U.S. eastern
seaboard, while a large trough remains in place over the western
half of the nation. This ridge overhead of our region continues to
deflect potent shortwave troughs emerging from the lee side of
the Rockies northeastward across the Plains states and the Upper
Midwest. A tight local pressure gradient remains in place along
the coast, where breezy onshore winds prevail, but less in the way
of marine stratocumulus is advecting onshore due to the weakening
of the coastal trough. Mostly high altitude cloudiness prevails
over our region downstream of a weak, moisture starved shortwave
that was progressing across the Deep South. Temperatures at 08Z
ranged from the lower 60s for locations near the Altamaha/Ocmulgee
Rivers in southeast GA to the lower 70s along the northeast FL
coast, while dewpoints were uniformly in the upper 50s and lower
60s area-wide.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

High pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast will shift
southward while gradually weakening today and will be positioned
off the Carolina coast by this evening. This feature will keep a
tight local pressure gradient in place today, keeping breezy
onshore winds in place at coastal locations throughout the day,
while breezy conditions spread inland by the mid to late morning
hours. Meanwhile, weak shortwave troughing traversing the Deep
South will flatten the ridge aloft that is currently overhead of
our region, with this feature likely keeping a veil of high cloud
cover in place through the mid to late afternoon hours. There
should also be an uptick in marine stratocumulus advecting onshore
this morning as what`s left of the coastal trough breaks down and
pushes inland, possibly generating a few isolated showers for
coastal locations and the Interstate 95 corridor through this
afternoon. Measurable rain chances will likely be confined to
coastal locations south of St. Augustine, with coverage remaining
isolated at best through this afternoon. Decreasing cloud cover
late this afternoon and a slightly drier low level air mass
filtering into our region will allow highs to climb to the low and
mid 80s inland, while breezy onshore winds keep coastal highs in
the upper 70s to around 80.

Our local pressure gradient will relax overnight as skies clear
out, allowing for radiational cooling to take place inland. A
light onshore breeze will continue at coastal locations, keeping
lows generally in the mid 60s. Lows at inland locations will fall
to the mid and upper 50s, and some patchy radiation fog can be
expected across inland portions of southeast GA during the predawn
and early morning hours on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Surface high pressure remains parked in the Atlantic off the FL/GA
coasts for early week. Subsidence and a dry airmass (PWATS < 1
inch) will continue dry conditions on Monday. South-southeasterly
flow develops ushering in warm and moist air into the region. On
Tuesday, an upper shortwave and its associated weakening front
approach from the NW providing some forcing for ascent. There may
be enough moisture to support a few showers moving into inland SE
GA and developing along the afternoon sea breeze Tuesday afternoon
into evening. Daytime highs will range from around 80 along the
coast to the mid/upper 80s further inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Warm and mostly dry conditions prevail through the week as surface
high pressure remains in the western Atlantic and ridging aloft
builds back over the SE US. The diurnal sea breezes slowly shift
inland each day but lack of moisture will hinder showers from
developing along the boundaries. The next potential for rainfall
appears to be Saturday as the next front approaches the region.
Above normal temperatures expected with highs rising into the
upper 80s/low 90s and overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 06Z Monday. Periods of MVFR visibilities are expected after
06Z at VQQ, and periods of IFR visibilities may be possible
towards the end of the TAF period. Confidence was too low to
indicate anything other than MVFR visibilities at VQQ at this
time. Occasional broken ceilings of 3,500 - 4,500 feet are
expected today, and a brief period of MVFR ceilings cannot be
ruled out at the coastal terminals. Isolated light showers may
move onshore from the Atlantic waters this morning, but confidence
remains too low to indicate anything other than vicinity coverage
at the terminals at this time. Cloud cover is expected to
decrease towards 00Z Monday. East-southeasterly surface winds will
become breezy by 15Z, with sustained speeds of 10-15 knots and
gusty at the inland terminals and around 15 knots and gusty at the
coastal terminals. Wind speeds will subside substantially after
01Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 411 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

High pressure building southward towards the Carolina coastline
this morning will gradually weaken as it becomes situated off the
southeastern seaboard early this week. Small Craft Advisories
continue offshore through this morning, with winds and seas
subsiding back to Caution levels this afternoon. Small Craft
should Exercise Caution if venturing through the near shore waters
adjacent to northeast FL today, where winds of 15-20 knots and
seas of 4-6 feet will prevail today. A weak coastal trough may
generate a few showers over our local waters today before this
feature dissipates this evening.

Breezy easterly winds and elevated seas will diminish tonight,
with prevailing winds becoming southeasterly on Monday and then
southerly on Tuesday. Seas of 3-4 feet will prevail both near
shore and offshore by Tuesday. A weakening frontal boundary
entering the southeastern states on Tuesday could develop isolated
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
Atlantic high pressure will then build westward from Bermuda
later this week, resulting in prevailing southeasterly winds.
Another frontal boundary will enter the southeastern states next
weekend, possibly resulting in increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms throughout our local waters.

Rip Currents: Breezy easterly winds and rough, elevated surf
conditions will keep a high risk of rip currents in place today
throughout our local waters. Onshore winds and only gradually
diminishing surf will result in a moderate rip current risk at all
area beaches on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 411 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Moderate flooding will continue today along lower portions of the
Santa Fe River near the Three Rivers Estates gauge. Water levels
will fall back to minor flooding overnight tonight, with minor
flooding then expected to continue into next weekend. Meanwhile,
minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Santa Fe
River near the gauge at Hildreth through Tuesday, with water
levels then expected to fall below flood stage by Tuesday night.
Otherwise, minor flooding will continue along lower portions of
the Suwannee River from the gauge near Branford and points
downstream through early portions of this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  58  86  62 /   0  10   0   0
SSI  76  66  78  66 /  20  20   0   0
JAX  81  62  83  63 /  20  20   0   0
SGJ  80  64  81  65 /  20  20   0   0
GNV  83  58  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  85  58  87  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$