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000
FXUS62 KJAX 172003
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
403 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Dry weather and initially clear to partly cloudy skies will
continue through the afternoon with cloud cover increasing tonight
as high pressure ridging moves southward and prevailing flow
shifts to become more out of the west. High temperatures this
afternoon will reach up into the mid to upper 80s over inland
areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coastline.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper lower to
mid 60s for most inland areas and in the mid to upper 60s along
the shoreline.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Mostly quiet weather pattern expected on Thursday as ridging
aloft will keep dry air over the area. During the overnight hours,
fog development will be possible from the Suwannee Valley region
towards the I75 corridor as moisture from the Gulf treks into the
region. By the afternoon showers and storms will be possible along
the Altamaha River Basin in southeast Georgia as a cold front
passes to the north of our area.

Daytime temperatures in the lower 90s for most inland locations,
with coastal locations expected to remain in the upper 80s thanks
to the Atlantic seabreeze on both Thursday and Friday. Lows will
be in the low to mid 60s across the area on Thursday and Friday
nights.


 &&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Some showers and storms may develop during the afternoon hours
over southeast Georgia on Saturday ahead of a cold front moving
in from the northwest. Come Sunday, the cold front will begin its
trek across southeast Georgia. This will bring an increase in
showers and storms across southeast Georgia and as far south as the
I-10 corridor in northeast Florida on Sunday afternoon. Eventually
showers and chances of storms will increase for the rest of
northeast Florida as the front continues to move south through the
area into Monday. By Tuesday, high pressure will begin to build,
bringing a dry pattern to the area.

Temperatures will reach into the lower 90s for inland locations
as coastal locations will remain near the upper 80s on Saturday.
Temperatures are expected to drop from the 90s to mostly the lower
to mid 80s on Sunday as the cold front moves through the area, by
Monday temperatures are expected to cool further before trending
upward again by Tuesday as high pressure builds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024



VFR conditions through the forecasted period with a potential for
patchy morning fog affecting VQQ and GNV on Thursday.
Southeasterly winds will become more mild in the evening and
overnight hours and then beginning to develop from out of the west
by the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

High pressure ridge centered to the east will extend across area
through Thursday. The high pressure ridge will sink to the south
Friday. A cold front will sink near the GA/FL line over the
weekend and stall. This front will then move southeast of the area
early next week.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds and building seas will create a
high-end moderate rip current risk at area beaches today. A
developing long period easterly ocean swell arrives at area
beaches beginning on Thursday, keeping a moderate risk in place
from Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Max temps around 90 degrees can be expected at local climate sites
on Friday 4/19 and Saturday 4/20 and will be close record levels.

                        Record High   Record High   Average First Date
                        Friday 4/19  Saturday 4/20   to Reach >= 90F

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)    92/1995       92/1995         April 25
Craig Field, FL (CRG)     91/2013       91/2002         April 22
Gainesville, FL (GNV)     94/2011       94/1892         April 21
Alma, Georgia (AMG)       91/1968       93/1968           May 2

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  89  65  90 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  65  82  65  85 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  64  89  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  64  85  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  61  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  61  88  62  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$