000
FXUS62 KJAX 151451
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1051 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS RIDGING (1025 MILLIBARS)
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES. ALOFT...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING COVERS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT RESULTED IN A DAILY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE BEING TIED AT JACKSONVILLE (52 DEGREES). BENIGN
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL REGION-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER OUR REGION. A SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER NOON AND PROGRESSES
INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR
10 KNOTS AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH 17Z. A SEABREEZE WILL
PUSH PAST THE SSI AND CRG TERMINALS BY 18Z...AND SHOULD REACH JAX
AND VQQ TOWARDS 20Z. LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
SURGE OFFSHORE TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OVERNIGHT...BUT HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.FIRE WX...
DRY CONDS WILL CONTINUE AS MIN RH LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
25-30% RANGE OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...BUT SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE AND FUEL MOISTURE
REMAINS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  60  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  81  66  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  85  59  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  80  64  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  86  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  86  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/ENYEDI/CHASE