000
FXUS62 KJAX 140636
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
236 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Clear skies and calm winds inland at this hour as high pressure
is over the region. temperatures are a little below normal in the
upper 40s to low 50s for most places and mid/upper 50s along the
coast and the along the banks of the St Johns river, cooling
another few degrees as sunrise approaches.

Low level ridging over the FL panhandle coast will scoot east over
the FL peninsula today while faster winds in the mid and upper
levels spill over the mid/upper level ridge over the SW Gulf of
Mexico that will being some cirrus clouds in from the WNW later
this afternoon. Winds will be light and variable as surface high
pressure axis stretches east to west from the Gulf across north
central FL into the Atlantic waters north of the northern Bahamas.
Sunny skies this morning and mostly sunny skies this afternoon
will help develop seabreeze circulations due to the high pressure
pattern with low level ridging just to the west suppressing the
Atlantic seabreeze enough to halt it near the I-95 corridor
with southeasterly winds 8-12 mph behind it with a Gulf seabreeze
moving towards I-75 into late afternoon. Highs will be warmer
compared to Saturday with mid 80s inland and upper 70s at the
beaches.

Tonight, variable winds inland will become calm while winds back
around to southerly at the coast to 5-10 mph after sunset with
some passing high and mid level clouds. Lows will fall into the
low/mid 50s over inland areas and the upper 50 to around 60 at
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Monday...High pressure ridge axis from the Western Atlantic
continues just south of the region across the FL Peninsula and
with a weak steering flow from the West-Southwest will keep the
East Coast sea breeze pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast and
allow for above normal highs under Mostly Sunny skies in the
mid/upper 80s inland and lower 80s along the Atlantic Coast.

Monday Night...High pressure ridge axis remains in place and
under mostly clear skies and near calm winds inland expect lows
in the mid/upper 50s and near 60 along the Atlantic Coast.

Tuesday...High pressure ridge axis retreats slightly eastward
into the Western Atlantic which allows for a more SE steering
flow to develop and surface SE winds will be slightly stronger
in the 10-15 mph range which will push the Atlantic coast sea
breeze inland to the US 301 corridor. Under mostly sunny skies
and dry conditions still expect max temps to remain above normal
in the mid/upper 80s inland and lower 80s along the Atlantic
Coast.

Tuesday Night...High pressure ridge remains over the Western
Atlantic into the region at the surface, but expect an increase in
high level clouds which will lead to slightly milder overnight
lows in the lower 60s inland and middle 60s along the Atlantic
Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Above normal temps and mainly dry conditions are expected through
the period. Long range models are suggesting that the western
Atlantic high pressure ridge will settle just south of the region
with a series of weak fronts pushing through the SE US and washing
out across the NE FL/SE GA region through the end of the week,
slowly adding moisture to the atmosphere so by the weekend time
frame a slight chance of afternoon showers or isolated
thunderstorms will be possible as the sea breeze fronts push
inland. Max temps will generally be in the upper 80s to around 90
over inland areas each day, while the east coast sea breeze will
keep max temps in the lower/middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast.
Some of the longer range MOS guidance is suggesting that a few
locations across inland areas could reach 90F for the 1st time
this year in the Thu/Fri/Sat time frame. Here is the average first
date for reaching 90F at local climate sites based on the last 30
years (1994-2023) climatology...Gainesville (GNV) FL is April 21,
Craig Executive Airport (CRG) in Duval County FL is April 22,
Jacksonville (JAX) FL is April 25, Alma (AMG) GA is May 2nd.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure will continue to stretch east southeast from the Big
Bend of northern Florida into north central Florida overnight with
calm winds away from the coast and variable at SSI/SGJ 3-5 knots.
The high will slide eastward and linger over the area Sunday with
variable winds to begin the day at most sites near 5 knots while
flow trends easterly by late morning at SGJ as the high`s center
enters the waters. Sunny skies expected into afternoon that will
drive slightly higher southeasterly winds 8-10 knots behind the
Atlantic seabreeze into SGJ, SSI, and CRG by 18Z-19Z, then to JAX
by 21Z. Cirrus clouds will enter towards sunrise with winds
becoming calm inland after 02Z and remaining variable at the coast
through the end of the period under cirrus overhead.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure will remain over the waters today and shift
eastward into the Atlantic waters through midweek. Light and
variable winds today will give way to southwest winds Monday with
a southerly wind surge in the afternoon, then flow turns southerly
Tuesday and into Wednesday with southeasterly wind surges in the
afternoon. A weak front will move north of the waters late week
with another front bring isolated showers and possibly a
thunderstorm this weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents today and Monday for
all area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure ridge will remain over the region Today and Monday
with wind speeds generally 10 mph or less along with the East
Coast sea breeze pushing into the US17/US301 corridors by the mid
to late afternoon hours. The dry airmass in place will continue
critical RH levels around 25 percent this afternoon and in the
25-30 percent range Monday afternoon, but fire weather headlines
are not expected due to the light wind speeds associated with low
humidity levels. Warm and dry conditions will continue well into
next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Flood warnings for minor flooding are in effect for the Satilla
river basin at Waycross and Atkinson and over portions of the
Altamaha, Alapaha, and Suwannee river basins through next week.
Moderate flooding is forecast for Three Rivers Estates along the
Santa Fe river basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  55  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  80  60  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  83  56  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  81  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  84  53  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  83  53  87  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$