000
FXUS62 KJAX 180618
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
218 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridge axis from the Atlantic across the region will
continue to slowly shift southward and extend across the FL
Peninsula as a weak surface trough pushes into the SE US later
today and tonight. This will continue a westerly steering flow
across the local NE FL/SE GA region and continue above normal
temperatures. Widespread high clouds over the local area this
morning will shift southward and disperse during the afternoon
hours and will allow for partly to mostly sunny skies to develop,
which should push highs into the upper 80s/near 90 over inland
areas, while a weaker East Coast sea breeze will allow for
slightly warmer temps into the lower/middle 80s along the Atlantic
Coastal/I-95 corridors, the East Coast sea breeze should push
inland to the I-95 corridor across SE GA and to the US 17 corridor
across NE FL. Periods of high clouds will continue tonight with
mainly mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and above normal
overnight lows in the lower 60s inland and middle 60s along the
Atlantic Coast. Some patchy fog will be possible over far inland
areas by early Friday morning, mainly along the I-75 corridor of
inland NE FL and the Suwannee River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Friday, light westerly low level flow continues with low level
ridging just south of the area from the eastern Gulf into central
and southern FL. Patchy inland fog along and west of I-75 will
lift by mid morning with light westerly winds 5-10 that will help
push the Gulf seabreeze inland past highway 301 while pinning the
Atlantic seabreeze along and east of I-95. Dry low level air in
the low levels will prevent showers across most of the area with
exception of SE GA locations near the altamaha river basin where
higher moisture ahead of a slow moving cold frontal boundary draped
across the deep south to generate isolated showers and a widely
scattered T`storm. High temperatures will be Hot Friday in the low
90s along and west of I-95 and mid 80s at the beaches. Lows will
be in the low to mid 60s Friday morning.

Friday night, skies will be mostly clear with light west southwest
winds creating patchy fog west of I-75. Increasing moisture over
the area will make for milder lows in the mid 60 to upper 60s.

Saturday, low level ridge will sink into south FL away and allow
for isolated to scattered showers and T`storms over SE GA in the
afternoon where greatest moisture will reside as the approaching
cold front slowly edges east southeast through AL/GA/SC due to
upper level support racing away into the western Atlantic waters.
Highs stay hot in the low 90s inland amid the warm westerly low
level flow and mid 80s coast where the east coast seabreeze stays
pinned. Lows will be in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

On Sunday, mid to upper level shortwave trough will rotate from
the northern plains southeast towards the mid MS valley with a
weaker shortwave impulse just ahead of it over moving east from
TX into the lower MS valley. This will develop a wave of low
pressure that will move east northeast along the boundary that
will move near or just north of SE GA areas late Sunday leading
to isolated to scattered showers and T`storms in the afternoon
and early afternoon hours, with activity lingering after midnight
as the front sinks further south into SE GA towards the FL/GA state
line. A seabreeze induced shower is possible over NE FL in the
afternoon, but dry air in the low levels will largely remove this
possibility. More cloud cover will help lower highs to the upper
80s to around 90 over NE FL and mid to upper 80s over SE GA with
mid 80s at the beaches. Lows will again be in the mid 60s.

Monday, mid to upper level trough swinging east southeast from the
TN valley to the Carolinas will finally push the cold front into
NE FL. The combination of moisture ahead of the front, instability
from cooler mid level temperatures, and lift from convergence along
the frontal boundary will generate scattered to numerous showers
and T`storms. The presence of strong shear and steep mid level
lapse rates will keep the potential open for isolated strong to
severe T`storms that may include gusty winds and hail. Winds will
shift from southwesterly to northerly behind the front by late in
the day. Cooler highs from convection expected in the mid to upper
70s over SE GA and the low to mid 80s over NE FL. Lows will be in
the mid 60s over NE FL and lower 60s over SE GA.

Tuesday, high pressure will build from the southern Appalachians
onto the Carolina coast with northerly winds turning easterly over
coastal portions of the area as the high shifts eastward. A drier
airmass will create mostly sunny skies. Highs will be cooler in the
low to mid 70s over SE GA, upper 70s to lower 80s over NE FL and
mid 80s over north central FL. Morning low temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 50s inland and low 60s coast.

Wednesday, the highs will resettle to the east and extend a surface
ridge axis over SE GA with light south to southeast winds under
mostly sunny skies as subsidence remains over the area. Highs will
rebound due to the sunshine into the mid to upper 80s. Morning
low temperatures will again be in the mid to upper 50s inland and
low 60s coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Fairly thick cirrus cloud deck will continue to overspread all TAF
sites through the overnight hours and likely will prevent any
sites from having any significant fog formation. Otherwise high
cloud deck will slowly disperse through the morning hours with
East Coast sea breeze pushing through the coastal TAF sites of
SSI/SGJ/CRG in the 16-18Z time frame from the SE around 10 knots.
Still not enough moisture for any rainfall at the TAF sites, and
any low level diurnal Cu fields in the 3500-5000 ft range should
remain FEW-SCT through the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

High pressure ridge axis will continue over the local waters
today, then sink southward on Friday. A cold front will move
southeast to near the GA/FL line on Saturday and stall through the
rest of the weekend. This front will then push southeast through
the local waters on Monday. No headlines expected through the
period.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents Today and Friday as
Southeast/Onshore sea breeze winds continue during the
afternoon/early evening hours both days with surf/breakers around
2 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Max temps around 90 degrees can be expected at local climate sites
on Friday 4/19 and Saturday 4/20 and will be close record levels.

                        Record High   Record High   Average First Date
                        Friday 4/19  Saturday 4/20   to Reach >= 90F

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)    92/1995       92/1995         April 25
Craig Field, FL (CRG)     91/2013       91/2002         April 22
Gainesville, FL (GNV)     94/2011       94/1892         April 21
Alma, Georgia (AMG)       91/1968       93/1968           May 2

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  63  91  67 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  81  65  86  68 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  89  64  92  65 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  85  64  87  66 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  89  62  91  63 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  89  62  90  63 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$