000
FXUS62 KJAX 190647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...DAILY SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EARLY THIS MORNING...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT ENHANCED SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION OVER NE FL DURING THE EVENING HOURS IS STILL SLOWLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST BETWEEN ST AUGUSTINE AND
DAYTONA BEACH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH ABOUT 6 AM. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING BY MORNING. TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 65-70 RANGE INLAND
AND 70-75 RANGE COAST.

REST OF TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE SOME SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THE MORNING HOURS WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION AND HEATING WILL
COMMENCE AND SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED. PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES IN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE FRONTS FROM BOTH COASTS TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH
THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THE ACTION AS IT MOVES INLAND.
HAVE UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY WHICH WAS SUGGESTING 60%+
COVERAGE AND HAVE KEPT COVERAGE IN THE 40-50% RANGE...MAINLY OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES
WILL CUT TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE
COAST AND UPPER 80S OVER INLAND AREAS.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN WIND DOWN
BY MIDNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS UNTIL SUNSET. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG. LOWS MILD IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH PRECIP
WATER AMOUNTS IN THE 1.5-1.75 RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS IN THE AFTN/EVE. HAVE
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE ADVERTISED LIKELY POPS AND
GENERALLY GONE WITH 40-50% POPS AND EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS THAT MAY
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S COAST AND UPPER 80S
INLAND.

TUE/WED...PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON
STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO DIURNAL AFFECTS AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY-SATURDAY...
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
ECMWF/GFS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US LATE
THURSDAY...WITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE
SURFACE WAVE PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THIS
PERIOD. MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
A PERIOD OF MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO SEA BREEZE
ENHANCED DIURNAL INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL SELY FLOW...MAINLY
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WILL MORPH INTO MODERATE RISK EARLY
THIS WEEK AS LONGER PERIOD SWELLS IMPACT THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  67  87  65 /  50  30  50  20
SSI  80  71  80  69 /  30  20  40  20
JAX  86  68  85  66 /  50  30  50  30
SGJ  82  69  81  69 /  30  20  40  20
GNV  88  67  87  64 /  50  40  50  30
OCF  90  67  87  66 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE