000
FXUS62 KJAX 181344
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
944 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL AL/GA AND NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS MODELS
SUGGESTED. A VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO SE GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. KJAX
12Z SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT IS 1.23 INCHES WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO
MODEL AND SATELLITE PWATS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTN WITH RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWING PWAT UP TO 1.7 INCHES IN A
LENGTHWISE STRIP OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. POPS HAD BEEN CAPPED AT
30%...AND WILL WAIT UNTIL 12Z MODEL RUN TO DETERMINE IF POPS NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP NEAR THE HWY 301 AND U.S. 1 CORRIDORS. TEMPS ARE
ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES TO HIGHS NEAR 90 INLAND AND MID 80S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. HAVE VCTS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING AND WILL
FINE TUNE TIMING WITH 18Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE BENIGN OVER THE WATERS...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
AND 2 FT SEAS AT 8 AM. WINDS/SEAS WILL KICK UP A BIT IN THE AFTN.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SWELLS
REMAINING 2 FT OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  66  88  67 /  30  30  40  30
SSI  82  71  82  71 /  20  20  30  20
JAX  86  67  87  67 /  30  30  40  20
SGJ  83  69  83  70 /  20  20  30  20
GNV  89  65  89  65 /  30  30  40  30
OCF  91  66  90  67 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

TRABERT/GUILLET/