000
FXUS62 KJAX 161939
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
339 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER LOSING
DIURNAL HEATING INPUT THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INITIATION.

AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY...THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE
A RETURN WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE 70 TO 75
RANGE...BEFORE MIXING OUT SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHER TEMPS CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES THAN TODAY DUE TO A MORE LIMITED SEA BREEZE PROGRESSION.

.SHORT TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET DUE TO A WEST/SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. OUR
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BECOME MORE ZONAL...ADVECTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...WE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO HIGH-
END CHANCE FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY WANING BY LATE EVENING.
KEPT ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. EXPECT LOWS TO FALL TO NEAR CLIMO REGION-WIDE...UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST. ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY...ADVECTING DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO NORTHEAST
FL. ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
NORTHEAST FL...AND WE LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE IN FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...GENERALLY LOWER 90S
INLAND AND NEAR 90 AT THE COAST DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS DELAYING THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. ISOLATED OVERNIGHT COVERAGE WAS MAINTAINED ON
TUES NIGHT FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH
NEAR CLIMO LOWS EXPECTED REGION-WIDE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDGE GETS SHUNTED TO THE SE
OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WHILE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH...
REACHING THE STATE BORDER ON WED AND THEN STALLING/WASHING OUT
ACROSS NE FL THU-FRI. THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE
GA ON WED AND COASTAL SE GA AND EXTREME NE FL THU-FRI. AS THE
MEAN LAYER RIDGE LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND...A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THURS...THEN WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BY
FRI AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
MAY IMPACT THE GNV TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z. WILL CARRY VCSH IN THE
TAF...BUT A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT IFR CIGS BETWEEN 500-900 FT TO DEVELOP AT GNV AND VQQ AFTER
08Z...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. IFR CIGS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AT JAX...CRG...AND SSI...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO CURRENTLY INCLUDE IN THESE TAFS. CONDITIONS AT VQQ AND GNV
SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 13Z. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 4000 FT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
AFTER 00Z...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS WEEK.

FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
LITTLE HIGHER WINDS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY TOWARD WEEKS END.

RIP CURRENTS...LOW RISK ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  92  69  92 /  10  50  50  40
SSI  75  88  73  90 /  10  40  40  30
JAX  71  90  72  92 /  10  50  50  20
SGJ  74  87  72  90 /  10  50  50  20
GNV  71  92  68  92 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  72  92  69  92 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/NELSON/WALKER