Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290031 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 731 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 731 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART WAS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. ONE MINOR CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE 9Z WEATHER GRID FOR THURSDAY. FOR WHATEVER REASON SEVERAL PIXELS DEPICTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WERE SHOWING UP AT 9Z WITH NO POP GRID AT 9Z TO SUPPORT THEM. THEREFORE...THESE APPARENTLY ERRONEOUS PIXELS WERE REMOVED FROM THE 9Z WEATHER GRID. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO OUR WEST. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 50-60KT LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARDS DAWN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING LOW FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK UP AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO FIT THIS DESCRIPTION WILL BE OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. AS IS MORE TYPICAL OUR EASTERN VALLEYS WILL BE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT...THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE TAKEN THE FORECAST IN THE SAME DIRECTION THOUGH SFC TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS A MIX OF SOME RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NEAR DAWN FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING QUICKLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE...SO THINKING IS THAT THE THREAT IS MINIMAL ATTM. JUST THE SAME WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO THE FOLLOWING SHIFTS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE MAIN STORM TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA...BEGINNING SOMETIME DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AND PUSH TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE DUE TO A LOSS OF ICE NUCLEI DURING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ANY LIGHT RAIN...OR DRIZZLE TO CONVERT OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HELP OF NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN GENERAL ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA STATE LINES. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF BLACK MOUNTAIN PICKED UP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY MID DAY FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 QUITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH QUICK MOVING S/WV TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE... WITH QUIET WEATHER ON THE HOMEFRONT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF USHERING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE END OF THE WEEKEND FEATURES A SYSTEM THAT STILL HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TIED TO IT. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES TOGETHER...IF AT ALL... THE 12Z/28 GFS SHOWS A MORE LACKLUSTER SOLUTION WITH A WEAKER TROUGH WHEREAS THE 00Z/28 ECMWF SHOWS THE ENERGY PHASING IN THE MIDWEST AND FORMING A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER EVENT FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS QUITE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS OF RIGHT NOW... THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN ON SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT. THOUGH... GIVEN ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY... STILL THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DROP DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EXITS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. THAT BEING SAID... IT DOES APPEAR THAT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN TUESDAY HELPING TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO LOWER 30S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A MIXED PRECIP EVENT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 731 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER THIRD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THE SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES BY ABOUT MID AFTERNOON AND PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. AS IS TYPICAL WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS...SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL. WE CAN EXPECT MVFR VSBYS AND BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY. ALSO ADDED IN SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND 9 OR 10Z TOMORROW...AS THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR IT...ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL PLAN VIEW DATA...WHICH IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z THURSDAY.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...AR

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