Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261050 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 650 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 649 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 Forecast is on track, and the only changes were blend obs into the forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 A dry air mass is in place locally under a large scale eastern CONUS trough. A shortwave trough moving through the larger scale flow will approach tonight and move through on Tuesday. Models are indicating mid/upper level saturation with this system. The main question is whether we will see just virga, or if rain will make it to the ground. Nothing more than 20-30% POP appears justified at this point. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 324 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 The extended looks to start off warm and dry, as a ridge of high pressure remains in place across the region Tuesday night through Thursday morning. After that, a series of upper level weather systems and surface fronts will move across the eastern third of the CONUS. These systems will bring periods of showers and storms to eastern Kentucky to end the week and into the upcoming weekend. The latest model guidance is suggesting that the highest probabilities of showers and storm will occur Friday through Saturday, as a southeastward moving cold front interacts with a northward surge of warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures during the extended look to be around normal for the time of year, with daily highs in the 80s and nightly lows in the 60s expected. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 Outside of a bit of early morning valley fog (not at TAF sites), VFR conditions will prevail through the period. There is a small potential for showers toward dawn on Tuesday, but if they occur, they should be light. Winds should be 10kts or less from the west or northwest.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL

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