Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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035 FXUS63 KJKL 210744 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 344 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 A surface cold front is currently moving through eastern Kentucky, with widespread precipitation gradually exiting to the east. Temperatures are running from the mid 50s behind the boundary, with some lower to mid 60s still hanging on in the far east ahead of the front. Aloft, an upper level trough axis is shifting across western KY/TN, with a well-defined dry slot as seen on water vapor, moving into central Kentucky. The models are in good agreement through Saturday, with the trough axis to gradually move east across the rest of the Commonwealth today. A temporary lull behind the main batch of precipitation will give way to a resurgence of scattered to numerous shower activity as the trough moves through our area today. Many high temperatures will likely be established early this morning, as cool northwest winds and plenty of low level cloud cover will keep readings nearly steady in the low to mid 50s through the day, some 30 degrees cooler than the highs from yesterday for many places. The showers will come to an end from west to east this afternoon into early this evening. Clouds will likely be slow to dissipate tonight, with locations west of I-75 seeing the best chance of any partial clearing by dawn Saturday morning. Lows will be in the lower 40s for most spots, with the exception of the higher terrain in the southeast, where 30s will be more commonplace. A few sites out west may also be candidates for some 30s if enough clearing can take place late. Saturday will feature a partly cloudy day, with highs in the mid to upper 50s, as high pressure builds in from the west and southwest, and heights recover aloft. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 Models are in good agreement from Sunday night through much of the upcoming week. High pressure will be positioned just to our south at the start of the period, leading to the coldest night of the fall Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lows should settle into the mid 30s in the colder sheltered valleys with readings in the lower 40s on the ridgetops. This high pressure will be pushed south as a dry cold front slips south Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of the front on Sunday, temperatures should have a nice bump with a nice surge of higher mid level heights. The cold front won`t have a significant impact on the weather, expect to bring in a very dry airmass for Monday and Tuesday. Fortunately, with high pressure settling in across the region, winds should stay fairly light both days, so no significant fire weather concerns. Tuesday morning could turn quite chilly with the very dry airmass and we could be looking at our first good frost for the area, but ECMWF remains a bit higher on dewpoints, which could favor more fog formation. Regardless, could be some spotty frost in places. Doesn`t appear widespread enough to warrant a mention in the HWO at the moment. Temperatures will again rebound into the middle of the upcoming week as high pressure slides east and we start to see return flow. A shortwave trough will cross the great lakes late Wednesday into Thursday and will help to drag a cold front across Kentucky again. This time around, moisture looks more limited, but there will be a small chance for some showers as the front pushes through on Thursday. 00z GFS actually weakened the system a bit, but ECMWF maintains some light QPF areawide. Details are a bit more fuzzy behind the Thursday system as models support a very weak push of colder air, so we may stay mild into the end of the week, but the 00z ECMWF does bring a secondary cold front south Thursday night and could bring some cooler temperatures heading into next weekend. Latest GFS does not support that solution, so still some spread with respect to those details.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 A cold front has moved east of a line from KSYM to KLOZ. This will continue to move through the rest of the area over the next 1 to 2 hours, with southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts shifting to the northwest at 10 to 15 kts, with gusts to around 20 kts for about an hour. Ceilings will drop down to IFR, with rain showers continuing through around dawn, before becoming more scattered from west to east during the day. Ceilings will gradually raise up to MVFR through the day, before becoming VFR towards dusk for most locations. Northwest winds will become gusty once again during the afternoon, before diminishing by early evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.