Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 041556 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. CU HAS BEEN SLOWER TO FORM TODAY...AND ANY RESIDUAL FORCING FROM UPSTREAM ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAK AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 90 DEGREES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH WARMER IN PLACES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION/NEAR THE VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE GFS SEEMS TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL BLEND. THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MORE VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES COMING DOWN AT THE TAF SITES. WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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