Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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885 FXUS63 KJKL 270522 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 122 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 Thunder has ended across the area, and will remove this for the rest of the night. Some isolated to scattered showers will continue to linger across the area through the next few hours, before diminishing. There are some thinner spots in the cloud cover upstream, and with a slackening pressure gradient expected through the rest of the night and recent rainfall, will include some patchy dense fog across the area. Low temperatures will average in the mid 50s, and have mainly freshened up the hourly temperature drop off. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 813 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 A few clusters of showers and isolated thunder are shifting northeast across portions of eastern Kentucky early this evening. One of these will pivot through the I-64 in the next hour, while another one will exit into West Virginia. The latest HRRR has been showing additional activity firing up in the next 2 to 3 hours; however, with the better forcing moving off to the northeast and the loss of heating, am leaning more towards a gradual weakening trend, which has been the case upstream. Have freshened up the POP trends over the next few hours, with thunder chances ending in the next 1 to 2 hours, as the aforementioned clusters of convection exit. Have also included some patchy fog, with pockets of clearing and some locally heavy rainfall having occurred. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 The short term period will be active, with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across the area through around 2Z this evening. A few of the storms this afternoon could produce hail and strong wind gusts. The thunder chances should only last through 23 or 0Z, as any remaining instability and best forcing should be gone after that. General rain showers are expected overnight, and these will taper off steadily through 6Z, and should be gone by around 9Z. After a very brief reprieve, we should see more showers moving into the area from the south and southwest between 12 and 13Z on Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible again after 17Z on Monday. There will be a good chance of thunder Monday night as well, as a strong area of low pressure aloft and a fast moving but weak cold front both move across the region. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will also be on tap, as ample moisture will continue streaming into the area from the south. Temperatures through out the period will continue to run well above normal, with nightly lows in the 50s, and highs on Monday in the low to mid 70s expected. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 440 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 The period is expected to begin with a mid and upper level trough moving through the OH Valley region and into the Appalachians that shifts east during the day on Tuesday and takes deeper moisture with it. The associated surface low is expected to move into the Mid Atlantic states by Tuesday evening and take the cold front across the area on Tuesday morning. Mid and upper level ridging should build in behind it, with surface high pressure nosing into the OH Valley at midweek. This should bring a break in the unsettled weather with mild and drier weather from late Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. The pattern will remain rather active with the next in a series of upper lows or shortwaves moving from the Southern Rockies across the Plains and into the mid MS and OH Valleys from Wed through Thursday evening. There is also some timing and strength differences with the upper and surface low beyond Thursday. The general consensus however, is for the upper and surface system to track to the west and north of the area from Thursday through Friday night and bring additional rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area. This system should continue to depart on Saturday with surface and upper level ridging building in for a dry end to the weekend. Chances for showers will be highest to start the period, followed by a lull at midweek. The next system will bring another period of unsettled weather with pops in the good chance to likely range form Thursday into Friday evening. At this point, next weekend is expected to end on a dry note. High temperatures should average above normal for most of the period, although highs on Wednesday and Saturday should be near normal for late March/Early April. Lows will also be mild and at this point are not expected to fall below 40 at any point, even in the normally colder valley locations. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017 Coverage of showers have decreased this hour, but not out of the question that a shower will move over SYM. That said, the upstream ob at IOB stayed VFR based on the obs and therefore opted to keep SYM VFR. Some guidance still suggests a layer of stratocu is not out of the question overnight, but the trend in the guidance has been VFR CIGs. This will be tough to forecast given the scatter holes in the cloud deck seen in the IR SAT. These holes in the clouds will also lead to fog particularly in the valleys and areas that saw rain today. Given the latest guidance did opt to keep the TAF sites VFR for now. Then the challenge will be how much convection develops and where for this afternoon. Right now will add showers and VCTS to all sites at 18Z and some of these will probably linger into the evening. The winds are expected to remain light generally out of the south and southwest through the TAF period. However, any stronger thunderstorm that develop this afternoon could contain gusty winds.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...DJ

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