Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210619 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 219 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE THE WINDS AND TEMPS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE CWA. WHILE THE ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TRANSITION...DID MAKE A SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT OF ONE SHOWER WHICH HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...MAKING IT/S WAY EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE BEGINNING THEIR SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...WITH A AREA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FOLLOWING THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE. CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON. HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES /GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JMW

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