Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
097 FXUS63 KJKL 262045 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 445 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 19z sfc analysis shows a low pressure system moving into the upper midwest with a cold front approaching Kentucky. A warm front has developed and lifted northeast of the CWA placing eastern Kentucky in the warm sector of this approaching low. Plenty of sunshine ahead of this front today sent temperatures into the mid and upper 70s while dewpoints stayed up better than past afternoons - only into the mid and upper 40s. Winds, meanwhile, picked up from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph over the western parts of the area with some gusts to 20 mph or so while they remained a notch lighter over the eastern parts of the area. The models are in pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they all depict a weakening trough moving through the Great Lakes. A band of energy will extend south from this and traipse into and across eastern Kentucky overnight and into Thursday morning. Low heights will stick around through Thursday night but the southwest ridge looks to build over southwest Texas and northeast into our area by the end of the week. Given the general model agreement with this pattern through Friday morning have favored the blended solution with special attention to the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12 guidance. Sensible weather will feature a mostly dry cold front pressing through central and eastern Kentucky Thursday morning with at best some scattered showers. Still cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm with this, but for consistency sake have left them out of the forecast - especially given the low PoPs for this desiccating frontal passage into our dry area of late. The shower/sprinkle chances pass by early afternoon as the front moves on east Thursday with a change in the wind direction, a few gusts to 25 mph from the west and cooler/drier air inbound. Accordingly, expect temperatures to bottom out in the low to mid 40s most places Friday morning along with some patchy valley fog. Given that this is likely another front that will not bring significant rain to the area we are looking to get even drier through the weekend and into next week raising fire weather concerns as antecedent conditions only get drier going forward. Started with the CONSShort/ShortBlend for the bulk of the grids with adjustments to the temps tonight and to a lesser extent on Thursday night based on terrain distinctions. As for PoPs - did drop them down a bit on Thursday - more toward the previous forecast given the drying front - ending up a notch below MOS guidance. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 350 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 A upper level wave will be exiting to the east on Friday, as a surface high progresses east into the region. In the wake of this wave strong upper level ridging will build into the region. At the surface high pressure will build into the Carolinas and warm air advection will kick in on the backside. This ridging remains in place until we move toward Sunday, as a northern stream shortwave briefly suppresses the ridge. Then ridging quickly builds east with strong heights building all the way into the Great Lakes. Another northern stream wave will pass into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Monday night. A cold front will also progress east, but will become weak by the time it makes it east. Impacts for the period will be the above normal temps and dry weather for most of the period. The upper level wave on Sunday afternoon could bring a slight chance of a showers in the far east. However would be hesitant to go much more than slight given the dry antecedent conditions, lack of jet support, and lack of multiple model support. Before this ahead of this wave on Saturday will be a gusty day wind wise and could be something that needs to be watched fire weather wise. Otherwise the period will be met with well above normal temps, as we see highs in the mid 70s to even around 80 for most of the period. This will put several days especially Saturday and Tuesday into near to record highs. Matter of fact the record high for the month of November is only 82 degrees at Jackson and London and these could also be in jeopardy.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 VFR conditions will be experienced through the period. Southwest winds of between 5 and 10 knots will continue into early evening. Look for high and mid level clouds to begin to thicken late in the period. Some low level wind shear may develop ahead of an approaching cold front late this evening as winds die off at the TAF sites have included that in the TAFs. For Thursday, a mostly dry cold front will pass through with winds picking up to near 15 kts by early afternoon along with gusts to 20-25 kts. Do not foresee cigs below VFR during this or any real impact from convection. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF/KAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.