Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190000 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 700 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 700 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018 23z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving to the south of Kentucky. This has cleared the sky and will maintain that through the night. Winds are relatively light currently and will diminish further with sunset, but they will likely still stay mixed over the higher terrain overnight. Currently, temperatures are running generally in the mid to upper 20s with dewpoints from 10 to 15 degrees. For the night, expect a small to moderate ridge to valley temperature difference to develop. Have made some minor adjustments to point forecasts and a few terrain based edit areas owing to the wx regime tonight. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 355 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018 Current conditions across the region features clear skies with high pressure centered over the AL/MS area with the axis nosing northeast over the OH Valley. This setup will persist into tonight with clear skies in place and winds decoupling right after sunset. Radiational cooling and clear skies will allow temps to plummet into the single digits in some of the deeper eastern valleys. Ridgetop temps will be in the teens with a 10 degree ridge to valley difference despite the weak southwesterly flow. Speaking of that southerly flow, heading into tomorrow, the high over the southeast shifts east allowing for increased gradient and increased southwesterly flow as high temps tomorrow afternoon may reach the 40 degree mark in many locations. In fact, increased advection from the south heading into Friday night will allow for more warm air pushed into the area along with some upper level cloud cover. This will make for less of a ridge to valley temperature difference as well as lows only dropping into the middle 20s, even in the deeper valleys. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018 The weekend portion of the extended forecast will begin with zonal flow over the state of Kentucky, while a southern stream cutoff low located to the south of the CWA will move to the east. This pattern will be disrupted as the next primary precipitation system of focus moves through the region Monday afternoon. The models are coming into better agreement with this system compared to previous runs. However, the GFS is still slightly quicker in terms of the arrival of the precip. WAA will be brought into eastern KY via SW to S flow Saturday into Sunday due to a surface high pressure system building to the south and moving eastward. This pattern will usher in warmer temps for the weekend. Also, an inverted trough to the east of the CWA will increase the possibility of precip Sunday afternoon. However, the models are in disagreement with how much precip will actually occur. The ECMWF favors more QPF versus the GFS which favors little to no QPF. The cold front bringing in the main precip will move in Monday. The warmer temps from the weekend will cause initial precip to fall as all rain. However, cooler temps will be brought in behind the cold front. This will lead to increased chances for a post-frontal mix of rain/snow showers Monday night into Tuesday morning, particularly in higher elevations, as the system moves out of the Commonwealth. The main story for the rest of the workweek will be cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 645 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018 High pressure just to the south will provide mostly clear/VFR skies and fairly light winds through the TAF period. Wind will generally be from the southwest at around 5 knots through the period - though a notch or two higher at SYM.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...GREIF

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