Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221108 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 708 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THAT TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS. EXPECT DRY AIR TO BEGIN INTRUDING FROM THE W...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF THE CLOUD COVER BEGINNING IN THE SW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY A CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL SINK SE FROM WV TO THE SEABOARD OF VA AND NC BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NE DIRECTION...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...WITH HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS A SHALLOW RIDGING PATTERN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS LOW...AND RIDE ALONG NW FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NE/RN MOST PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR EAST. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO KEEP THESE RAIN SHOWER CHANCES JUST ALONG PIKE COUNTY AND POINTS EASTWARD OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG PULL OF WINDS FROM THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN FACT...LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG JET STREAK ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAY TODAY. WHAT THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO...BESIDES HIGH WINDS ALOFT...IS A STRONG PULL OF CANADIAN TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARDS AND INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TODAY...WARMING SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW..AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN TALK BETWEEN THE OFFICES CONCERNING WHETHER OR NOT TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO PASS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFTS AND LET THEM DECIDE IF ONE IS NEEDED OR NOT. AT THIS POINT...AFTER ADDING IN FROST FOR LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS 37 DEGREES OR LESS...WE STILL SEEM TO BE A BIT LIMITED ON COVERAGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL IN THE FAR NORTH...FAR SOUTH...AND IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ADDING IN FROST FOR AREAS EXPECTING 38 DEGREES AND UNDER...WOULD PUT MUCH OF THE AREA IN PATCHY/AREAL COVERAGE AND MATCHED UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WEIGHING BOTH SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO STICK WITH INCLUDING FROST FOR AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE 37 DEGREES OR LESS OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF SPARSER COVERAGE...SINCE 38 DEGREES SEEMED TO BE PUSHING THE LIMITS OF BEING TOO WARM FOR ICE TO FORM. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH UNEVENTFUL WX. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE HEADING IN FROM THE NW...AND PASSING OVER ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE OCCASIONALLY SHOWN SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT LATEST RUNS ARE DRY...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED. ONCE THIS MOVES PAST...WE CAN EXPECT BENIGN NW FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PASS EAST OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WX CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING KY FROM THE W OR NW LATE TUESDAY...BUT ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR AT TAF SITES BEFORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS LIFTING BACK TO LOW END VFR BY 15 TO 18Z. SCATTERING OUT SHOULD OCCUR FIRST IN THE SOUTHWEST /I.E. SME AND LOZ/ AND WILL OCCUR LAST IN THE FAR EAST /I.E. SJS/. ONCE DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD AND SKIES BEGIN CLEARING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES. BY TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOWERING CIGS ONCE MORE...BUT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS SCT AT BEST. DO EXPECT BOTH FROST AND FOG TO DEVELOP...BUT MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES. AS SUCH...CHOSE TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF FOG OUT AT THIS TIME.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JMW

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