Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271350 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 950 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 950 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Just sent out an updated zone forecast text product to remove mention of fog. Outside of a few small areas in our far east, fog has dissipated across the area. Any remaining wisps of fog should be completely gone by 1015 or 1030 am. The rest of the forecast was on track. Will issue another update around noon today to remove any remaining stale wording from the forecast text product and to freshen up the hourly grids with the latest obs. UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Forecast appears on track early this morning. Made a few tweaks to grids for hourly trends. No other changes to the forecast package ATTM.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 314 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Short wave trough moving across the Northern Tier and eventually through the Great Lakes will flatten the mid/upper level ridging in place across the eastern CONUS through the short term. A storm complex currently rounding the western periphery of this ridge will remain well west and northwest of our area today. However, the gradual suppression of the ridge and increasing moisture in return flow around the ridge will allow for a growing threat of rain through the short term period, first across the Cumberland Plateau, possibly brushing our far southwestern zones later today and then over most of the forecast area Sunday. For sensible weather, summer like weather with hot and humid conditions will continue. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out across the far southwest and over the higher terrain to the southeast this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over much more of the area Sunday. Look for afternoon highs in the low 90s and tonights lows once again dropping into the upper 60s and lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 401 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 A strong upper level ridge will be over the region at the start of the period. Despite its presence, diurnal heating of our humid air mass could fuel a few thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening. The upper ridge will weaken and break down during the long term period, and a slow and rather subtle transition of air masses looks like it will occur. High pressure passing to our north will bring slight drying early in the work week, which will limit our POP. As an upper level trough develops over the northeast CONUS, a further change in air mass is expected. Models depict a diffuse, poorly defined cold front dropping south through the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Once again, a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out as this happens, but the probability is low. Late in the work week, a continued transition to a cooler and drier air mass should occur as surface high pressure drops southeast out of Canada over the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Fog will affect the typical valley locations early this morning. It has managed to bring some periodic restrictions to a few TAF sites. The fog will dissipate by late this morning, with mainly VFR conditions then expected into tonight. There is a slight chance of some thunderstorms bringing brief IFR or worse conditions this afternoon, mainly west of I-75 and along the VA border. Valley fog will develop again late tonight. Winds will be light through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...HAL

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