Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 030707 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL BE SEEN...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY WE SEE THESE IMPROVEMENTS. CLOUDS WILL HOLD TOUGH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AREAWIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY COME BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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