Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 101148 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 748 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITION AN MODEL TREND. ANY REMAINING VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE BURNING OFF BY 9 AM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN...HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE...HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWER A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. INITIALLY HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM...HOWEVER MAY MAKE A LAST MINUTE CHANGE WHEN THE NEW ECMWF COMES IN AFTER 3 AM. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS THAT HAS BEEN BIAS AND ELEVATION ADJUSTED. ONCE THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATTER THIS AFTERNOON...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NORMAL VALLEY FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THUS...LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ON TAP. WEATHER WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WILL HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY...AND COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO POP A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WOULD BE VERY SPORADIC WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY SINCE MOST OF THE BETTER FORCING WILL STAY NORTH. A BETTER LOOKING SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROVIDING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THIS WAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. A POTENT VORT MAX WILL THEN SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AGAIN WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT AND IF IT STALLS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND WASHES OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 ANY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9 AM. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE VFR UNTIL SOME MORE VALLEY FOG FORM AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JJ

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