Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191922 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64 PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT... THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...KAS

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