Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 180045 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 745 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 745 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 Steady rain has exited off to the east, with some light returns working in from the Bluegrass, as a short wave trough moves east across the Ohio Valley. Have gone ahead and dropped the Flood Watch early. Expect mostly cloudy skies to remain in place, with some drizzle across the area through around midnight, before gradually diminishing. Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points, which should steadily cool off through the night. Lows in the low to mid 30s look on target. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 415 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 An area of moderate to heavy rain continues to move across the area although the back edge of the rain is now working in from central KY and TN in advance of a shortwave trough. Some snow or mixed rain and snow has been falling across far northern Fleming County where reports of amounts approaching an inch were received. As noted the precipitation has already tapered off over much of central KY with rain rates near the TN and VA borders having decreased over the past hour as well. The area of rain should affect the VA border counties for about another two hours and should be over around 7 PM with rain and any mixed precipitation tapering off and ending over far western and northwestern locations over the next hour or so as the shortwave trough moves east and deeper moisture and lift begin to depart. Low level moisture will linger a bit longer well into the night with low clouds and stratus build down fog anticipated in the evening, followed by gradual clearing from west to east late tonight and into the day on Sunday. Diurnal ranges will be limited tonight with low dewpoint depressions and clouds lingering even as sfc high pressure begins to build in. Lows should be at or jut above the freezing mark for most locations. Along with sfc high pressure move east across the OH Valley mid level height rises are expected in the wake of the shortwave trough late tonight and into the day on Sunday. The airmass will dry out considerably as well. Sunshine should be abundant for most of the day, with temperatures warming up to above normal levels. Another shortwave trough will begin to approach late in the period with a warm front lifting north toward the area on Sunday night. Initially though, there should be a relative lack of clouds in the evening which should support min T for many central and eastern valley locations near midnight. These locations will likely experience min T for Sunday night near 40 if the upper and perhaps mid 30s. At this point did not go quite as low as coop mos guidance form the GFS might suggest which was low to mid 30s for these normally colder valley locations, opting to trend on the order of 6 to 8 degrees below Superblend for these normally colder locations. Isentropic lift in advance of the warm front and a return of deeper moisture for the Gulf Coast states should be sufficient for another round of showers to encroach on the area after midnight on Sunday night. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 324 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 A warm front will lift north at the start of the period with some showers ongoing to start the day Monday. However, as the ridge over the eastern CONUS builds, heights will shoot upwards early in the week. With downslope flow and very anomalous high heights over the area on Tuesday, we could be looking at easily breaking some record highs and perhaps all time February record highs. The February record highs sit at 79 for Jackson and 81 at London. We have a pretty good chance to break that at Jackson, but London may be closer. A slow moving front will eventually push east by midweek, with rain chances spreading back into the area. Instability doesn`t look fantastic, but shear is great. Thus, we could see a potential for a few strong storms come Wednesday and Wednesday night, especially if the instability trends upwards. This will be something to monitor over the next several days, especially with the record warmth already in place across the region. Still some question how long the frontal zone may linger over the area late next week, so will maintain some rain chances through the end of the week and into next weekend. With ground already very saturated with near record February rainfall and rivers running high into early next week, more flooding concerns may return by mid to late next week. Looks like the mild weather will continue through the remainder of the extended as well. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 745 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 Expect IFR or lower clouds, with some very light rain/drizzle across the area through 06z. Ceilings should then lift to MVFR towards dawn, before scattering out after 12z, as high pressure builds in across the region. Winds will veer to the west at 5 to 10 kts tonight, before diminishing and becoming more variable into Sunday.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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