Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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646 FXUS63 KJKL 031102 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY... BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE PRESENTLY...WITH SOME PLACES...MAINLY ON RIDGES REPORTING FAIRLY THICK FOG...WHILE OTHERS ARE LIMITED TO MAINLY IFR CIGS. MEANWHILE...SOME OTHERS ARE SITTING WITH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARLY A LARGE RANGE OUT THERE THIS MORNING AND WE COULD GO IN AND OUT OF THESE VARIOUS CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND IS THAT WE SHOULD REACH GENERALLY MVFR FOR MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START LOWERING TONIGHT...REACHING BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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