Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221955 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 150 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 FRESHENED UP TEMPS WITH LATEST OBS IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED THIS UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA NEAR THE BLUEGRASS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE A FEW VALLEY SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE UP INTO THE LOWER 40S. THEREFORE DID FRESHEN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION TO MATCH CURRENT OBS. GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AREA WIDE TODAY. WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CWA/BLUEGRASS REGIONS THIS MORNING. THESE RETURNS HAVE BEEN LIGHT IN MOST CASES AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE RETURNS SEEN ON RADAR ARE PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER DID OPT TO KEEP SPRINKLES JUST A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO AROUND THE NOON TIME FRAME GIVEN THAT REGION WOULD LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE WEST...WHERE EKQ IS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE MID 40S. FURTHER EAST...VALLEYS STILL REMAIN DECOUPLED...WITH THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET STILL REPORTING 20 DEGREES AND OUR COOP IN INEZ REPORTING AT 21 DEGREES. THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SKIMMING BY THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE LATEST RADAR AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY SPRINKLES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE MERELY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO. ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW. ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND. THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO SLIP IN LATE. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND THEN ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AT OR AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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