Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 171649 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1249 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- A deep trough passing aloft brings a threat of light snow showers and flurries on Monday afternoon. - Freezing conditions tonight and a hard freeze Monday night could kill any cold sensitive vegetation that has emerged prematurely due to early season warmth. - Temperatures rebound back to near normal through mid-week, with lower confidence in the next potential chance of precipitation moving in towards the end of the work week.
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&& .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1245 PM EDT SUN MAR 17 2024 Minor adjustments were made to hourly grids based on recent observations. This led to no substantial changes at this time. UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2024 Just a quick update to the forecast mainly to add in the current obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 435 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2024 08Z sfc analysis shows a broad area of low pressure northeast of Kentucky and dragging a cold front through this part of the state. This process is keeping a deck of clouds over much of the area - especially south - along with southwest winds around 10 mph just ahead of the boundary. In turn, this has limited the radiational cooling most places and led to fairly uniform temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s - though some low 40s have been achieved in the most sheltered northeast valleys. Meanwhile, dewpoints have fallen into the mid 30s to lower 40s range - the resultant dewpoint depression and winds are keeping most of the fog at bay this morning. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict fast zonal flow tilting more southwesterly later today and more sharply tonight in response to a deep trough extending through the southwest portion of the Ohio Valley on the way to its digging through the Tennessee Valley by Monday evening. This mid level flow will bring a stream of energy down over Kentucky for Monday with accompanying height falls. Given the still small model spread, have again favored the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids with mainly just some terrain distinction added to the hourly temps and low temperatures tonight and spotty PoP potential from the CAMs on Monday afternoon. Sensible weather will feature one last day of near normal temperatures before colder air overwhelms the early warmth of spring we have seen for the past week. Despite the weak CAA today, enough sunshine will support readings climbing into the low to mid 50s north and upper 50s to around 60 in the far southeast. Although the clouds and continued sfc winds of 5 to 10 mph will keep readings from dropping as far as they could, they still will be below freezing most places - for the first time in quite a while. Caution is urged for those who may have been lulled into thoughts of an early spring and brought any plants outside or where some early fruit tree blossoms have developed. Just know that Monday night will be even colder. This is due to a further surge of cold air into the area with another, mostly dry, cold front keeping highs only in the 40s along with a potential for some flurries and sprinkles during the afternoon - mainly for eastern parts of the area. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to again add some terrain distinctions into low and hourly temperatures tonight. PoPs were generally single digits from the NBM and kept there through Monday evening. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 538 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2024 A deep trough will start out just west of the Appalachians at the beginning of the period, with a REX block hanging on across the West. Through the middle of next week, the REX block breaks down, with the southern stream closed low likely transitioning to an open wave as it moves east over the southern Plains. The trough in the East curls northeast with time, with cyclonic flow setup from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio Valley, New England, and the Mid-Atlantic. The southern stream short wave trough will continue east through the end of the work week, with the operational GFS still on the slower and more intense-side of the ensemble envelope. The ECMWF remains quicker, more dampened, and further southeast with the moisture. As such, there is still lower confidence on precipitation chances from Thursday night through Friday. Have maintained chance PoPs during this time frame, but PoPs now only peak at around 40% for Friday, still trending down overall from the past few days. A cold air mass will be settled in across eastern Kentucky Monday night, with high confidence of a hard freeze, as temperatures settle into the low to mid 20s. Readings will rebound into the low to mid 50s Tuesday, and then upper 50s to lower 60s for Wednesday. A passing dry cold front will knock temperatures back down for Thursday, with highs retreating to the low to mid 50s north, to near 60 bordering Tennessee. Clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon, with precipitation chances increasing from the southwest Thursday night and Friday, before reducing to just slight chances (20%) by Saturday. Temperatures will generally average near normal through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT SUN MAR 17 2024 Sfc high pressure centered in the Saskatchewan and Alberta border vicinity is expected to move south and become centered over the Central Plains/Central U.S. by the end of the period and also builds into the OH Valley region and the Commonwealth. However, a shortwave trough will rotate across Ontario and into Quebec as well as the Central and Eastern Great Lakes and extended from the St Lawrence Valley to the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley during the next 24 hours. Although VFR is expected to prevail some mid and low level clouds in addition to high clouds are expected to cross the region at times. Cloud bases nearer to or below 5kft agl or perhaps lower will be most prevalent from 15Z on as some high based snow showers or flurries with no visibility restrictions should begin to develop as peak heating approaches on Monday. West to northwest winds at 10 to 15KT are expected to begin the period with some gusts nearing 20KT, though these should slacken toward 5KT from the west to northwest tonight. Winds should increase late in the period toward 10KT and out of the northwest.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JP

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