Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 310805 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 405 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK CIRCULATION AT THIS HOUR TRACKING NORTHERLY ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. THIS CENTER ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH AND EAST AS EAST KENTUCKY LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT A BIT TOWARDS DAWN. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AS ALREADY NOTICED WITH SOME OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST AND INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HEADING INTO THE DAY...WITH THE BARELY NOTICABLE BOUNDARY STILL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...A GOOD DEAL OF LIFT WILL BE ABSENT TODAY. THIS...WHILE THE REGION IS STILL UNDER A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS IN MIND...STEERING FLOW IS QUITE LACKING...THE IMPACT FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF ERIKA SEEMS TO STILL BE STUCK OVER FL AND DRIFTING NORTHEAST POSSIBLY TO BE KICKED NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER UP THE EAST COAST. HI RES MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE OPERATION NAM AND GFS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME PIN POINTING THIS FEATURES AND WHERE THEY WILL DRIFT IN THIS WEAK FLOW. THAT SAID...AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE CAP THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING...HAVE GONE WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIP TODAY SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE A STORM OR TWO POP UP. WEST OF THIS LOCATION WILL DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY WITH THE BOUNDARY...OR WHATS LEFT OF IT...STILL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOR THIS EVENING...THE LOSS OF HEATING FOR THE DAY WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST KENTUCKY. IN FACT...OVERNIGHT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EXTENDS INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS DEVELOPMENT...IF STILL ON TRACK WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND MORE IMPACTFUL FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS A DRY FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. HENCE...HAVE GONE FOR WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. IN THIS PATTERN...MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN A BIT MORE TO BE DESIRED. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TROUGHING WILL BE THE RULE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE IN THE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A FEW SHOTS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED PERIODS. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA VERY SPOTTY. ESPECIALLY TAF SITES TO THE EAST SUCH AS JKL AND SJS...WERE FOG SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WHERE AREAS CLEAR OUT TOWARDS DAWN SUCH AS SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z AS THE MORNING INVERSIONS LIFT. WILL KEEP SOME LOWER 3 TO 5 KFT DECKS IN THE SITES AS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LESS AND LESS DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WINDS WILL RELATIVELY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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