Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 160839 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 339 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 339 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2017 Surface high pressure is centered across the Gulf Coast States, with ridging nosed up into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. Aloft, a split flow pattern is in place, with a trough axis shifting off the New England Coast within the northern stream, while an upper level low spirals across northern Mexico within the southern stream. Stratocu cloud cover is finally relenting across eastern Kentucky, with clearing skies working in from the west. Return flow out of the south southwest has ensued, with cooler valleys in the east reporting in the lower 20s, while upper 20s are noted on the ridges. The models are in good agreement through the short term, with the upper level low across northern Mexico ejecting out and dampening as it moves northeast. This feature will reach the Arklatex region by tonight, and then moves through the Ohio Valley by late Sunday, bringing a round of light precipitation to the region. Today will feature a mostly sunny day, as ridging sharpens up across the Mississippi Valley in response to the approaching short wave from the southwest. Temperatures will rebound to around the 50 degree mark for most locations today, with southwest winds of around 10 mph, and a few gusts of 15 to 25 mph for some locations during peak mixing. Mostly clear skies will be in place initially tonight, as the ridge axis moves overhead. This will allow for the valleys to drop off quickly in the east, with some mid 20s expected. Clouds will thicken and lower for the second half of the night, likely stifling the diurnal drop through dawn. The short wave will then move through the region on Sunday, bringing light precipitation to the area. Most of the guidance has generally trended slower with the precipitation onset, ensuring that this will fall as light rain. Did stay on the cooler side of guidance for the highs, with generally mid 40s expected, given the wet-bulbing. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 339 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2017 The long term forecast discussion will follow shortly. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 105 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2017 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A broken stratocu deck ranging from 4-6k feet agl will break up and exit off to the east through the overnight hours, with mainly just a few passing mid and high level clouds expected thereafter. Southwest winds will average between 5 and 10 kts through the period, with the strongest winds occurring during the afternoon hours, with some gusts of around 15 kts possible at times. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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