Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300007 AAA AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 807 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 807 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Convection has diminished across the area with the loss of heating and weakening outflow boundary migration. A weak cold front remains off to our west and this will move in later this evening and into the overnight. Scattered convection has fired up along and ahead of the boundary; however, by the time the forcing moves in, instability will be on the demise. As such, have maintained only isolated pops. Mainly adjusted the pop timing based on the latest short term model and radar trends. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 355 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 As of mid afternoon, a mid level ridge extended from the Atlantic northwest toward the Northeastern Conus with the upper level system associated with TD Bonnie now over SC. A shortwave trough was approaching the area from the west with another weak shortwave nearing the Lower Oh valley from the west. At the sfc, an area of low pressure associated with the trough was centered over NW Ontario with a cold front trailing south into the Lower OH Valley. Convection near the VA border has diminished over the past hour, though locally heavy rain has occurred with some of this activity. Meanwhile, a broken line of convection has developed along the boundary from Ohio Southwest into parts of Western KY. The first shortwave trough will move across the region this evening, while the second shortwave approaches the area late this evening and moves across the area tonight. The cold front will also approach the area, but become more diffuse as it moves into Eastern KY by late tonight. The upper level system and area of low pressure associated with TD Bonnie will meander over the Carolinas tonight. There is low confidence in the convection near the cold front that is expected to move into Central KY over the next couple of hours. Much of the guidance shows the convection diminishing as it moves into the area late this evening. Isolated to scattered convection over the southeast part of the area should continue to diminish over the next couple of hours although the airmass remains rather warm and moist and marginally to moderately unstable as SBCAPE is generally in the 750 J/KG range to about 2000 J/KG range with slightly lower MLCAPE. Shear remains weak however and more typical of mid summer and makes the diminishing convection possibility seem more likely. An outflow boundary from the earlier convection over the southeast is working west and north and could lead to additional convection developing. Isolated to scattered pops were used through the evening to account for the convective possibilities. Several locations received at least light rain today and with light winds and partial clearing or periods of clearing anticipated fog will become a concern in locations that received rain earlier today and the typically favored valley locations. The rather diffuse cold front will continue to work across the area and become ill defined by tomorrow afternoon. Additional weak impulses in the flow could lead to isolated convection near the VA border on Monday afternoon, but most locations should remain dry. Sfc high pressure will build into the area late Monday into Monday night valley fog may again become a concern. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 253 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Forecast confidence is high on dry weather persisting through Wednesday morning. High pressure will provide this period with tranquil weather and low humidity. Should be a fairly decent stretch of weather. High will shift east on Wednesday with return flow strengthening. This will bring slightly better moisture into eastern Kentucky. Models are persistent on a small chance of a shower popping up on the high terrain in far southeast Kentucky. Will go with a shower, but lack of forcing or trigger, will keep activity very isolated and instability may not be enough quite yet to warrant any thunder. Thus, will just go with a slight chance of a shower in southeast Kentucky. Otherwise, most areas should stay dry through Wednesday night. Models remain persistent on a mid level trough working east across the great lakes and Ohio river valley on Thursday bringing a surface cold front into the region. While the greatest forcing will remain north...there will be a glancing shot of PVA into eastern Kentucky...setting up the best rain chance for the upcoming week by Thursday afternoon. While instability likely won`t be in question, shear may be lacking to provide much of a severe threat. What shear there is is all unidirectional, and at best might lead to a small threat for a damaging wind gust. Overall, not looking great, but models might be undercutting the shear given the presence of an approaching cold front. Regardless, still something to watch for as Thursday approaches. Models are much more progressive with the front today, dragging it south of the area by late Friday. Will maintain a chance for showers into Friday as the boundary slips south and perhaps a stray thunderstorm in the south with some lingering instability. By the weekend, weather looks to turn much drier and pleasant with highs back into the 70s behind the exiting cold front. Overall, models in decent agreement through the weekend, so confidence is slightly higher than normal in the extended part of this forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 807 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Isolated convection will continue to threaten through 06z as a weak cold front approaches and eventually passes through the area. Following the front, fog will form, likely becoming dense in the deeper river valleys as well as across locations that saw more significant rainfall recently. Have included IFR or worse for most TAF locations, with the worst conditions generally seen between 09 and 13z. Once the fog dissipates, VFR conditions will return. Light and variable winds will become northerly at 5 to 10 kts on Memorial Day. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.