Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 040830 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 430 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURES SOME WANING CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH DAWN TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY BUT OVERALL...THE WEAKENED FORCING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL BRING THIS ACTIVITY TO AN END. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA RECEIVED SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND A SATURATED SURFACE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAWN. HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE KY AND TN BORDER AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SETS UP IN A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH NUMEROUS WAVES TRAVELING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EVENTUALLY TRACKING INTO KY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN KY BY LATE TUESDAY. PLENTY OF SURFACE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE WAVE AND A BOUNDARY IN PLACE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAKE MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND TO IT WITH CONVECTION WANING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN COMBINED WITH SOME DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MID 60S WILL LEAD TO MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE SEEMS TO BE MORE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THOUGH THE TRACK...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WILL MAKE FOR A FURTHER TRACK TO THE SOUTH FOR THE SURFACE LOW. THIS STILL IS A BIT OF QUESTION AS THE TAM AND THE GFS HAVE BEEN A BIT INCONSISTENT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL OVER THE SOUTH AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH ANY SOONER...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED. FOR NOW...WILL ANTICIPATE UNORGANIZED CONVECTION AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION...AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FURTHER SOUTH...AN OUTFLOW FORM THE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE BLUEGRASS. THUS...OVER THE SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...HAVE MENTIONED VCTS IN THESE AREAS AS CONVECTION HAS WANED A BIT. MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT HAS RECEIVED A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LEAVING A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AD TOWARDS DAWN. WILL PUT SOME FIELD MINS AT THE TAF SITES WITH THE FOG LIFTING AFTER 13Z. HEADING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION WILL AGAIN ERUPT ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SPARSE AND WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN AT THE TAF SITES TUESDAY NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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