Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261426 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1026 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1026 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017 Just updated the forecast to remove mention of fog from the zone forecast text product, along with any morning or afternoon wording. The forecast overall is in good shape with no other changes needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 651 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017 Some locally dense valley fog has developed this morning. Updated to put more areas of fog in valleys. Otherwise, forecast is on track.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 331 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017 Surface and mid level ridge axis will continue to shift east today with return flow developing across eastern Kentucky. This will help to usher in some milder weather today with highs into the mid 80s under sunny skies. In the meantime, a potent shortwave vort max will be digging into the southern Mississippi river valley. A robust line of showers and storms will develop along a surface cold front as this wave pushes across that region today. This activity will then advance eastward tonight. While some weakening is expected overnight, it may become cold pool dominated and keep on going through much of the night. If this is the case, this line of showers and storms could arrive by daybreak into our southwestern counties, then move across the rest of the area during the Thursday morning hours. This system will have fairly good 0-3km shear and this would aid in maintaining the cold pool as it pushes across the area. The big question is how much instability will be in play Thursday morning. 00z GFS has some fairly significant values of SBCAPE, while the NAM has almost none. The answer may be somewhere in the middle of these two solutions, as surface moisture may not be as high across the area as the GFS is suggesting. Regardless, any instability with the shear involved would aid in the potential for a few damaging downburst winds. The recent event that comes to mind is the March 1st wind event. However, this time around the low level jet is not quite as strong, but nonetheless, there will be at least a low end severe risk through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. Showers and storms should be done by mid afternoon, with the evening shaping up to be dry. Temperatures will be a challenge on Thursday as early day convection may take temperatures down before a recovery is seen in the wake of the convection in the afternoon and evening hours. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 413 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017 A dynamic and active spring long wave pattern is ahead, as persistent troughing remains in place across the central CONUS into early next week. The blended guidance approach mitigates some of the model differences with regard to the timing and evolution of the small scale features, so did not stray too far from the given values. Short wave ridging will temporarily build in across the region Thursday night, bringing dry weather. This weekend, a short wave trough will drop southeast across the Rockies and eventually cutoff near the Four Corners region and then continue to deepen as it lifts northeast across the central Plains and eventually into the Great Lakes. Several short wave troughs will be moving through the flow, with a warm front aligned into the Ohio Valley, before a resultant surface low pivots a cold front across the Mississippi Valley by the end of the week and into early next week. Friday through Saturday, the better chance POPs look to be Friday night, as a low level jet ramps up across the area, and the warm front close by at the surface. At this point, there is too much uncertainty with the surface evolution and the mesoscale role, to hone in on a severe threat, so will leave this mention out of the HWO for now. The front will be lifting to our north on Saturday, with only a few showers or storms possible within the warm sector. The surface cold front will approach from the west Sunday into Monday. Right now, the best chance for POPs will be Sunday night; however, there will likely be some forthcoming timing adjustments. Any rain chances will be on the decrease by Monday afternoon as the cold front pulls further away to the east. Tuesday looks dry with heights recovering aloft. Temperatures will average well above normal through the period, with highs mainly in the 80s and lows around 60 from Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will then return to near if not slightly below normal early next week behind the departed cold front. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017 Mainly VFR conditions and light winds will be seen over the next 24 hours. Some valley fog will burn off over the next few hours and is not impacting any TAF sites presently. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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