Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241902 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE PERIOD ENSURING A DRY FORECAST AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXIT INTO VIRGINIA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE MAIN QUANDARY IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW AND THE PUBLIC FORECAST WILL FEATURE A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AND A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. CLOUDS MAY END UP BEING MORE PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST...AND THIS WOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS. WHATEVER HAPPENS...SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT HANGS AROUND AND ANTICIPATE IT BEING PREVALENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 60...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST BLUEGRASS AND GATEWAY REGION WHERE SOME MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE. A PLEASANT FRIDAY IS THEN EXPECTED WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 THE EXTENDED PORTION WILL FEATURE A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MN AND INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...A 90 KNOT JET MAX WILL PUSH THROUGH DEEPENING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND KEEPING THE QUITE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. IN RESPONSE...THE WESTERN RIDGE INCREASES IN STRENGTH KEEPING A RARE MERIDIONAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT IN THIS TREND IT CAN BE SAFE TO SHOW A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL COME ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. WENT WITH THE LIKELY POPS INHERITED FROM THE ALL MODEL BLEND. AT AN EARLY LOOK TO THIS SCENARIO...QUITE A BIT OF DYNAMICS ARE WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE STRONG JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES REACHING 2500 J/KG...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE HOLDS TRUE THROUGH THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. THIS WILL BE THE REAL FORECAST CHALLENGE AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND UP TO THE EVENT. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE AND WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THE AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT IS QUITE COOL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODEL TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AN OVERALL COOLER PATTERN FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JULY WILL BE THE CASE.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF FAR EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE VIRGINIAS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON NORTHERLY WINDS AND RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WILL END BY EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A TENDENCY FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG IN TOUGH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...OR REDEVELOP IF THEY BREAK UP FOR A TIME DURING THE EVENING. SO...WHILE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT IS LIKELY THEY WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...ABE

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