Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 181943 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 343 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 343 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 Available shortly... .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 343 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 The upper level pattern shows good agreement from the model suites indicating rising heights to begin the forecast period. This will provide a platform for a break in the weather through Monday night. However, both Sunday and Monday we will likely see some afternoon CU, but this will not kill seeing the eclipse on Monday. Also did opt to paint a unorthodox diurnal curve to the hourly temperature grids given the eclipse and time of day. There remains some uncertainty to the amount of drop in temperature, given this will be dependent on other elements such as cloud cover and dewpoint. This will be better picked up by the HRRRX by Monday, as they have added the eclipse effects in the background of the model. Another upper level trough will be reloading in the Upper Midwest and will begin dig and suppress the upper level high by Tuesday. This along with the approaching cold front will lead to showers and thunderstorms by Late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Right now timing wise the better chances of seeing rainfall will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Then the big question will be does the front make it across the region Wednesday, but right now the models are in decent agreement with this front moving east. This would lead to a overall better end to the week next week, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70 and PWAT values dropping below 1 inch.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 Showers and limited MVFR conditions lingered over the far southeast part of the state. The showers will be moving out to the east very shortly, and VFR conditions are then expected in all locations from late this afternoon until late tonight. Fog will develop in valleys late tonight and spread in breadth and depth, probably affecting most TAF sites with MVFR conditions (or perhaps worse) at times toward dawn. Fog and low clouds will dissipate after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions everywhere by late morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL

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