Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I64. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BY 2 OR 3Z THIS EVENING IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL QUITE MILD AS WELL...WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 THE PERIOD WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND UPPER WAVE APPROACHING. ALONG WITH THIS A WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. DO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AM BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO CHANCE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN WILL BE TOWARD TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AS MAIN WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET COME ACROSS EASTERN KY. NOW SUNDAY WE SEE MORE PHASING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WHILE WE RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THE SURFACE AS WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH. THIS PHASING WILL BRING DECENT BAND OF WESTERLIES ALOFT RIGHT ACROSS KY...AND AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOME AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THESE ELEMENTS WILL ALIGN TO ESTABLISH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR...HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL INTERSECTION YOU COULD SEE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION DO WE SEE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WE SEE AMPLY DESTABILIZATION AND CERTAINLY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES MID LAPSE RATES UP TICK TO AROUND 7 C/KM. CAPE VALUES BECOME FAT WITH IN THE COLUMN...WITH THE SOUNDING SUGGESTING MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. IF WE REALIZE SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WE WOULD BE IN FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND ALL ELEMENTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN PLAY. WILL ALSO SAY THE CIPS ANALOG DOES SHOW SOME SIGNAL MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64 AND SPC MARS HAS SOME WEAK SIGNAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT WE ARE STILL ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT WILL NOT RAMP UP HWO JUST YET...BUT WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DO TRANSITION THIS TO SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WANE. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FALLING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY...AS WE FALL BACK TO MORE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY TUESDAY MORNING WE DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY FEEL COOL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SE LATE WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE. BEHIND THIS WE COULD SEE A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR IF THE GFS COMES TRUE SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE...BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL THIS ONE.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CU HAS FORMED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...ONLY VCTS WAS USED IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS ANY SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY OCCUR. IF AN AIRPORT WERE TO EXPERIENCE A SHOWER OR STORM...MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS WILL START OUT BKN AT AROUND 3K...AND SHOULD BECOME SCT AT AROUND 5K BY AROUND 0Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD. PILOTS CAN EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH VALLEY FOG. THIS FOG MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS AND AFFECTS THE SURROUNDING RIDGETOPS. THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...AR

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