Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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507 FXUS63 KJKL 210000 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 800 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 730 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017 23z sfc analysis shows high pressure holding on along the East Coast and keeping the weather quiet through Kentucky. On satellite, some thin and high clouds are drifting over central Kentucky but not making much progress east. As such, the JKL CWA will see another night of clear skies, good radiational cooling, and light winds. Accordingly, look for a decent ridge to valley temperature split to again develop along with late night patchy valley fog - locally dense near the rivers and lakes. The current forecast has this well represented and only some minor tweaks were made to some spot temperatures along with the addition of some dense fog patches in the river valleys. Currently, readings are in the mid to upper 60s on the ridges while they have fallen to the mid 50s in the deeper, sheltered valleys while dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 50s and winds are light. Did also add in the latest obs and trends to the near term T and Td grids with this update. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 314 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017 The forecast issue in the short term will be continued warmer than normal temperatures. A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to exert its influence on the region through the weekend. As a result, mostly clear skies and light winds will also be on tap. Valley fog will likely form again late tonight, and will persist through early Saturday morning. Based on the latest model data and current conditions, the fog should be quite suppressed and confined mostly to valley locations and near bodies of water. The fog may locally dense at times, but only in very isolated instances. High temperatures on Saturday should easily reach the upper 70s for most locations. A few spots may even reach or slightly exceed 80 degrees by Saturday afternoon. Tonights lows should be close to normal in valleys, where min readings are expected to fall into the low to mid 40s. The ridgetops will be a bit warmer overnight, with minimum values expected to fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s in those locations. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 314 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017 A significant shift in the weather pattern across the United States will occur next week as upper level ridging in the east is replaced by a deep trough. After a very warm day on Sunday with temperatures nearing record highs, temperatures will begin to cool early next week and turn sharply colder by Wednesday. For Sunday record highs are 81 at both London and Jackson. The current forecast is for highs in the upper 70s Sunday in most areas, but with some downslope SSE winds would not be surprised to see some lower 80s Sunday afternoon. An initial cold front will be approaching western KY on Sunday, but with an upper level low cutting off in the lower MS valley and cyclogenesis in the lower MS valley the front will be slow to advance east. While rain is still forecast for Monday it is possible the onset of the rain may be slowed a bit. In any case showers will overspread the area Monday and Monday night as low pressure moves north along the cold front and the entire front shifts east. While temperatures will begin cooling on Monday due to clouds and rain, we`ll have to wait for the real surge of cold air until Tuesday into Wednesday. After the southern stream upper low moves northeast and a northern stream upper low drops into the Great Lakes a secondary cold front will move through the area and much colder temperatures will occur for mid week. Overall maximum temperatures will cool each day from Sunday to Wednesday, with the already mentioned upper 70s on Sunday, lower 70s Monday, around 60 Tuesday, and then low to mid 50s Wednesday. Cool surface high pressure building into the area Wednesday night should result in widespread temperatures in the 30s by Thursday morning, with frost possible. Temperatures will moderate towards the end of the week, but looking further out it appears another significant cold front may affect the area by the last weekend in October. With the already noted low pressure system expected to move up the front from the lower MS valley, we should see widespread showers from Monday afternoon into Tuesday, with total rainfall amounts from 1 to 2 inches. With the main surge of cold air coming midweek, precipitation chances will continue into Wednesday. It is possible there could be a few flakes of snow mixed with rain in the highest terrain near the VA border early Wednesday morning. A small chance of rain will return next Friday as the next cold front approaches. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017 Under mostly clear skies and light winds, fog will mainly affect just the valley locations near bodies of water later tonight into early Saturday morning as indicated by the latest model guidance and persistence in this stagnant weather pattern. In places that fog forms visibility could fall into LIFR by only in those lower elevation spots. As such, VFR conditions should prevail at all five TAF sites through the end of the period along with light winds.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GREIF

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