Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230251 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1051 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 PER LATEST IR IMAGERY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGHOUT CWA TO RETAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL LEFT A CHANCE FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WEST OF I-75 NEAR DAWN. SUBSEQUENTLY... KEPT A CHANCE FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND FROST IN THAT AREA NEAR DAWN. ALSO HAVE BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN SKY COVER PER RECENT IR IMAGERY...EVEN IN THE WESTERN MOST LOCATIONS...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 06Z. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GOOD LL MOIST LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SO HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT. OTHER MAJOR CHANGE WAS REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUST FROST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN. WE DID SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LAST NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND UPDATE IF WARRANTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL NOT OCCUR. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS TO START THE PERIOD. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS DURING THIS TIME AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND KY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUN INTO MON. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE DETAILS WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF IT...AND DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS TRACK WITH LOW WEST OF THE REGION...BUT VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. MEANWHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN SHEARS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THIS. AS THE SFC RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO NEAR 70 IF NOT INTO THE 70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 VFR/MVFR STRATOCU WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC...ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS WE COOL OFF TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER THURSDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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