Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 262049 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 349 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017 A ridge of high pressure will keep eastern Kentucky dry through late this evening, before an approaching area of low pressure brings some rain back to the area late tonight. In the meantime, we can expect middle and high level cloud cover to stream across the area, bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies to eastern Kentucky for the next several hours. The cloud bases should finally begin to lower a bit towards dawn on Monday, ahead of the approaching weather system. A lack of moisture return should allow for no more than isolated to scattered showers tonight into early tomorrow. A few snow showers may mix with the rain late tonight in our far northern and northeastern counties, where some cold air will still be in place, but these should not cause any issues. Tonights lows will likely range from around 30 in our deep eastern valleys, to the low to mid 30s elsewhere. The colder locations in our north and east is where a few snow showers may form late tonight. The rain should begin to steadily increase in coverage tomorrow night, as the aforementioned weather system finally begins to move into the area from the southwest. A weak trough of low pressure passing to our west tonight will be what brings the initial push of precipitation to the area late tonight through tomorrow morning. Temperatures should rebound a bit on Monday, as winds shift more to the south and southwest and increase in intensity a bit compared to today. This will also begin a period of moisture advection off the Gulf of Mexico into the Tennessee and Ohio valley regions. Highs on Monday should max out in the mid to upper 50s across the area. The warm air will remain in place Monday night, as lows in the 40s are expected. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 349 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017 Increasing southwest flow will continue Tuesday, lifting a warm front through the Ohio Valley as a surface low ejects out of the central Plains into the Midwest. This along with developing isentropic ascent will lead to rain showers during the morning into at least early-mid afternoon. Portions of southeast Kentucky may very well remain dry as winds initially maintain a downslope component. Temperatures warming into the upper 60s to near 70 in the warm sector will allow for at least meager enough instability to spark isolated chances of thunder through the late morning and afternoon. After a relatively drier period late Tuesday afternoon into a portion of Tuesday night, rain chances will increase in earnest as height falls overspread eastern Kentucky downstream of an upper trough stretching from the western shores of Hudson Bay through the Great Plains. Concurrently, evolution of a double-barrel surface low pattern may occur as the base of the trough moves across the front range of the Rockies. Still some question as to how quickly increasing thunder chances will materialize Tuesday night as stout earlier day warm air advection creates a strong elevated mixed layer, thus keeping any convection elevated. Despite recent rainfall and plenty of cloud cover, surface heating Wednesday morning/early afternoon should lead to ample enough instability for surface-based thunderstorm development across all of eastern Kentucky as a cold front bears down on the Commonwealth. Impressive shear profiles, characterized by 0-6 km values of 60-70 knots with 50 knots within a few thousand feet off the deck, will promote damaging wind gusts as a line of storms pushes through. Peak shower/thunderstorm activity currently looks to take place Wednesday afternoon, further promoting strong/severe wind potential, given enough instability can develop in order for updrafts to survive in a highly sheared environment. After a few storms likely linger into the evening timeframe, cold/dry air advection will blast into eastern Kentucky Wednesday night. Lingering rain/snow showers will be possible into early Thursday as below normal temperatures return through late week. A clipper system may bring some light rain/snow showers turning to all snow showers Thursday evening/night. Having a tough time in believing enough moisture advection will occur to see anything measurable following the strength of the recent front, but the best chances will be across northeast Kentucky. Quasi-zonal flow/weak ridging then looks to take shape for the weekend with warmer/drier conditions ensuing. Precipitation chances may then again ramp up heading into the following week as cyclonic flow redevelops out west.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017 The center of a ridge of surface high pressure is nearing the region. Just some high clouds are expected to pass by from time to time today increasing during the 20Z to 0Z period as an upper level disturbance passes. Overall, VFR is expected through the period, though mid level clouds are expected to arrive and spread south and east between 0Z and 6Z should move into the area by the end of the period with moistening from the top down ahead of another disturbance leading to a few low clouds and possibly a few stray showers across the far west and northwest late. Winds will remain light through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...AR

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