Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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730 FXUS63 KJKL 220301 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1101 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017 Freshened up the low temperatures in places based on the latest trends in observations. High clouds have thinned a bit this evening, lending support for the cooler drop off. Still expect some valleys in the east to get down to the low to mid 40s. UPDATE Issued at 758 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017 High pressure is maintaining control tonight; however, there are some high clouds streaming in on southwest flow aloft. Late afternoon dew points were similar to yesterday, so think that valley locations will drop off more, especially in the east. There may be a touch of fog along the river valleys, but this should be a bit less than previous mornings, given the modified air mass. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017 A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and warmer than normal weather to eastern Kentucky through early Sunday evening. Scattered to broken high level cloud cover will stream across the area during that time. Highs on Sunday should be similar to today, with max readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s expected. Tonights low will also be warmer than normal, with minimum readings ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s across the area. Cloud cover will finally begin to increase Sunday evening, as a large trough of low pressure aloft, and its attendant surface cold front, begin moving across the region. We should see the first rain showers begin moving into the southwestern portion of the forecast area late Sunday night. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 413 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017 The period is expected to begin with a closed low over the mid MS Valley near the confluence with the OH River while a northern stream shortwave trough is expected to be digging into the Upper MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes. At the same time, upper level riding is expected to be building along the West Coast of the Conus. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to be approaching from TN Valley region. A band of Gulf Moisture is also expected to extend into the region with PW climbing to at least the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range across the area at the start of the period. The closed 500 mb low is expected to track across the Commonwealth through Monday evening and open up as it begins to merge with the approaching northern stream shortwave. Meanwhile, the surface low is expected to track to the west of the area on Monday before deepening as it moves into northwest OH as the northern stream shortwave trough approaches the Great Lakes. The northern stream shortwave should work into the Great Lakes and OH Valley for Monday night into Tuesday. Another shortwave trough is expected to rotate through the trough and into the area at midweek. Overall, the weather should remain unsettled into midweek with periodic chances for showers. The GFS remains colder compared to the ECMWF at midweek, but it is conceivable that the highest elevations such as the top of Black Mountain could experience a flurry or two mix in at midweek. Upper level and surface ridging should work into the area behind the midweek system for Wednesday night through at least early on Friday while another trough moves into the Central Conus. Models vary in the timing and evolution of this trough and this will ultimately determine the timing of the next chance of precipitation into the area late in the period as well as temperatures. As for the initial system, an initial downslope component to the flow should cut back on QPF in the southeast part of the area early on Monday. However, sufficient forcing and moisture should be in place for a decent soaking rain across the entire area. Most locations should pick up at least an inch from Monday into Monday night. Categorical pops of 90 were carried for Monday, however measurable rain on Monday is nearly certain. Temperatures will be initially mild and around 5 degrees above normal on Monday, but will drop to below normal levels at midweek. If enough clearing occurs on Wednesday night, frost could develop in some sheltered valleys, particularly in the southwest. Temperatures should again moderate during the second half of the week ahead of the next approaching system. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017 Mainly high clouds will be seen through the period, with perhaps a few cumulus developing late in the day on Sunday. Some MVFR fog will also develop between 06 and 12z, but this should be limited to the deeper river valleys, given the low crossover temperatures. South to southeast winds will remain less than 5 kts through late Sunday morning, before increasing to 5 to 10 kts during the afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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