Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 051727 AAD AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 127 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE. THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN. POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109- 110-112-113-115-117>120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JP

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