Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 020818 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 418 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 PRESENTLY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. AN MCS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING HEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND IS NOW MARCHING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA...STRETCHING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. IR SATELLITE HAS SHOWN SOME WARMING WITH THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...INDICATING THAT THIS MCS MAY ALREADY BE ON THE DECLINE. IN FACT...THE HRRR SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A DYING MCS AS IT TRIES TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE BLUEGRASS SHORTLY AFTER 8 AM...BUT ANTICIPATE MORE OF THE ACTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. WITH THIS IN MIND...PLAN TO BACK OFF THE POPS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-64. OUTFLOW FROM THE DYING MCS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD KICK START THE CONVECTION AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY. THE FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GOOD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS THIS AFTERNOON...A SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST AS THUNDERSTORMS COULD PUT OUT SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SHEAR PROFILES WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD WEAKENING STORMS AFTER 6 PM. HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STALL A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY BY LATE THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH INSTABILITY AGAIN RAMPING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS PRESENT...SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS WITH NO SEVERE THREAT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 70. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DISSOLVING EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE DRY AIR IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. IF ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIP CAN DEVELOP OFF OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD DIE OUT BY NIGHT AS HEATING IS LOST AND SUPPORT ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE LACKING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MAKE A COMEBACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY FUEL A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE SE CONUS WILL HELP TO KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED FOR A WHILE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND GET SUPPRESSED BY A BROAD TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE NE CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NW. THE SCENARIO WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE...WITH A PEAK EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD PASS BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL LEAVE SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVE THE FRONT WILL BE AT BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SE COUNTIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND COULD SPAWN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. PLAN TO STICK WITH THE VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AS TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY ARE TOO GREAT TO GO WITH A THUNDERSTORM PREVAILING GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.