Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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666 FXUS63 KJKL 270707 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 307 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 307 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 A few rain showers will move across portions of eastern Kentucky through around dawn this morning. The showers should be out of the area by 12Z. The latest runs of the NAM12, GFS, and HRRR models, along with the latest MOS data, all support this scenario, so the forecast was modified accordingly to reflect this. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist through late this morning, with the clouds expected to gradually scatter out and move out of the area by late this afternoon. Mostly clear skies, near calm winds, and valley fog will be on tap for late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions will be on tap for Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to run well below normal today, with highs in the low to mid 70s anticipated. We should see a return to closer to normal temperatures on Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure settles over the area. Highs on Wednesday should be able to climb into the lower 80s for most locations. With clear and calm conditions expected tonight, we may see some valleys fall into the upper 40s, while the surrounding ridges drop into the lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 3 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 There is good model agreement with the overall upper air pattern through the forecast period. The long wave trough over the eastern U.S. at the beginning of the period will be lifting out with more zonal flow becoming established across our area. A couple of short wave troughs will move through the mean flow during latter part of the week, with the most significant short wave moving across the Great Lakes this weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be moving off to our east on Wednesday. As a result temperatures will begin to warm and with return flow developing moisture will also be on the increase across the area through the latter part of the week. Wednesday will still have dewpoints in the 50s, but after that dewpoints will go back into the 60s, with mid and upper 60 dewpoints expected for the remainder of the forecast period. By Thursday afternoon a short wave passing by to our north may result in a few storms in the northern part of the area while moisture returning from the south will bring a slight chance of storms to the south. With a slow moving front to our north at the end of the week, and moisture continuing to increase, the storm threat will expand on Friday. However storm chances on Friday will remain relatively low. The best chance for showers and storms will occur on Saturday into Saturday night as a more significant short wave and associated surface low moving across the Great Lakes results in a southward push of the cold front. The front will stall in the OH valley and this will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into next week. Temperatures will warm back into the mid 80s on Thursday, but the daily threat of showers and storms will keep maximums in the lower 80s for most days from the weekend into early next week. With the increase in dewpoints after Wednesday we`ll see our typical summer lows of muggy 60s from the end of the week into next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 VFR conditions look to hold on through the period. Clouds will thicken and lower to around 6k feet agl from northwest to southeast tonight, as a weak cold front approaches. A few showers will threaten from late tonight into Tuesday morning, before chances diminish into the afternoon as the cold front exits. A few thunderstorms may also occur early Tuesday afternoon as daytime heating begins to increase. Some fog may form in river valleys and near bodies of water toward the end of the TAF period. Light and variable winds will turn more out of the northwest at around 5 kts once again into Tuesday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.