Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261810 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 110 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 THE BAND OF STEADIER SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ON UPSLOPE FLOW/INSTABILITY LINGERING BEHIND THIS. SOME OF THIS LIGHTER SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE BELOW THE RADAR BEAM...SO THE AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT GREATER THAN INDICATED BY RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE CURRENTLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...SO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES...WITH A BUMP DOWN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND THEN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT FALLING PRECIP SHOULD ACT TO COOL ROADWAYS AND SURFACES AND SLICK OR REFREEZE SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED LOCATIONS. THESE COULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY DARK...DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCUR. AN SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO HANDLE THIS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT 8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF. EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST. THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY... THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY... BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS. THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 EXPECT VARYING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS...ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT AIRFIELD MINS OR JUST ABOVE FOR THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE SHORT IN DURATION DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 00Z THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER

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