Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221553 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1053 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA NEAR THE BLUEGRASS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE A FEW VALLEY SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE UP INTO THE LOWER 40S. THEREFORE DID FRESHEN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION TO MATCH CURRENT OBS. GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AREA WIDE TODAY. WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CWA/BLUEGRASS REGIONS THIS MORNING. THESE RETURNS HAVE BEEN LIGHT IN MOST CASES AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE RETURNS SEEN ON RADAR ARE PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER DID OPT TO KEEP SPRINKLES JUST A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO AROUND THE NOON TIME FRAME GIVEN THAT REGION WOULD LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE WEST...WHERE EKQ IS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE MID 40S. FURTHER EAST...VALLEYS STILL REMAIN DECOUPLED...WITH THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET STILL REPORTING 20 DEGREES AND OUR COOP IN INEZ REPORTING AT 21 DEGREES. THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SKIMMING BY THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE LATEST RADAR AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY SPRINKLES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE MERELY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO. ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW. ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THE DRY SLOT IN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK EARLY ON. BASIC THINKING IS THAT EVEN IF THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN FASTER...WE MAY STILL GET DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE NIGHT OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MEASURABLE DRIZZLE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ON MONDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND CROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AFTER CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S...TEMPERATURES BY THE EVENING SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 40S. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY...WITH 925MB WINDS TOPPING 35 KNOTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POSSIBLE NOREASTER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN US COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS LOW BACK TO THE WEST...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. GOING TO MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...BUT IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS ANY FARTHER WEST...MAY NEED TO INSERT SOME POPS BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS REALLY DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE 50S...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS OUT ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH AND WOULD PUT TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW. CLEARLY THIS IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...AND PUTS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE THANKSGIVING FORECAST AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISED FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE COLDER SOLUTION. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GO WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK REGARDLESS OF THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS POINT TO A MUCH COLDER END TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND THEN ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AT OR AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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