Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221142 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 642 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 642 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017 Low clouds continue to expand across the area this morning, excluding the Bluegrass region. With the clouds expanding, we may see a good 3 to 4 hours of cloud cover for many areas this morning before we see sunshine return for the afternoon. Updated grids to better reflect the cloud cover trends and temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 259 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017 A cold front is advancing southward across east Kentucky early this morning. The narrow band of precipitation along the boundary has already shifted off to the north and east with just a band of clouds now existing with the feature. As the front exits this morning, questions still surround cloud cover potential. NAM Bufr soundings still show some low cloud development. Given the upslope flow, this scenario could still play out, but as of right now, very little low clouds observed immediately behind the frontal boundary. There are some lower clouds farther back to the north (north of Cincinnati), that could filter into the area closer to daybreak. However, confidence is not high on how cloud cover will behave this morning given the tremendous clearing presently noted to our northwest. Temperatures will fall into the 30s by daybreak, and the degree of sunshine we see today will determine how to what degree we warm through the 40s for afternoon highs. More sunshine would likely yield higher values than are in the current forecast. Whatever cloud cover does develop will clear off this afternoon, with clear skies expected tonight. With the high building in across the area tonight, a cold night is anticipated with lows well into the 20s. A few upper teens may be possible in the eastern valleys. Temperature advection heading into Thanksgiving day looks very weak, so likely looking at highs in the 40s again after the very cold start. However, we should see a good deal of sunshine for Thanksgiving day. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017 The long wave pattern will be amplified through the period across the CONUS. Ridging will remain in control across the Desert Southwest, with troughing in the East, as well as across the Pacific Northwest. Early next week, the Pacific Northwest long wave trough will pull onshore, eventually crossing the Rockies and into the Plains by next Tuesday. This will shunt the ridging off to the east, maintaining an extended period of mainly dry weather across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Thursday night will start out with high pressure gradually shifting to our east, allowing for another cold night in the decoupled valleys. Have undercut the blended guidance, with some lower 20s likely in the far eastern sheltered sites. A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley Friday through Saturday. Any shower activity, looks to stay just to our north, closer to the better moisture pooling and forcing. Temperatures will average near normal across our area, with highs generally in the mid 50s. Another cool down will follow this front, with highs back in the 40s by Sunday. Warming will then ensue once again, as heights recover into early next week. Highs on Monday will be in the lower 50s, with upper 50s to near 60 by Tuesday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 642 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017 A period of MVFR cigs will be seen this morning at KSME, KLOZ, KJKL, and SJS before clouds erode by midday allowing for a return to VFR conditions. Light northerly winds will become variable or calm this evening as high pressure builds into the region. This will maintain the VFR conditions through tonight.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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