Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010558 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 158 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 UPDATED TO REMOVE THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION AS EVERYTHING HAS ENDED ACROSS THE NORTH. GOING TO SICK WITH THE PATCHY FOG WORDING GIVEN THE GRADIENT WINDS REMAINING A BIT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE ORIGINAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER A FLASH FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM...IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH. IFLOWS GAGES IN POWELL COUNTY INDICATE 0.68 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES AT CLAY CITY WITH 1.88 INCHES IN THE LAST 3 HOURS. STANTON HAD 0.76 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES AND 1 INCH IN 1 HOUR. QPE SHOWS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXCEEDED IN PARTS OF POWELL COUNTY...AND SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN IDENTIFIED FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ONCE THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHES...THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MORE QUIET. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE HEADED TOWARDS THE WATCH AREA...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WATCH AROUND 10 PM EDT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND SOME SPOTS ALREADY RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH OVER THE PAST 2 TO 3 HOURS HAVE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR A SWATH OF COUNTIES FROM JACKSON TO MARTIN AND PIKE.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 NONE OF THE MODELS ARE REALLY HANDLING THIS AFTERNOONS SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY VERY WELL. AS IT STANDS...THE NAM12 IS CLOSEST BUT STILL IS NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB. AS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS WAS USED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WITH SOME MASSAGING DONE TO MAKE THE RESULTING FORECAST GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS KENTUCKY AND THEN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO SET...THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY FEATURE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY...BUT BY SUN RISE ON MONDAY THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF RAIN. AFTER A LULL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. BY 12Z ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING...AND WE WILL BE LEAVING THIS IN PLACE SINCE IT IS BEGINNING TO RAIN A BIT MORE ACROSS THE AREA. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL DO AS THEY SEE FIT WITH THE FLOOD WATCH. TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. TOMORROWS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE US WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH IS RETREATING TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND THEN CURVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WARM MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST AND IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE VERY ZONAL ACROSS THE US WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL STAY IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM MOIST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES BEGIN TO DIFFER AND CONFIDENCE STARTS TO PLUMMET. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION TO THE GFS. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND AS THE MODELS WERE IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY. WHILE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG OUT OF THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...KAS

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