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000
FXUS63 KJKL 231921
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
321 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and breezy conditions today will approach critical fire
  weather thresholds.

- A weak passing cold front will bring light showers to most
  locations tonight into early Wednesday morning.

- Below normal temperatures return by Thursday morning, bringing
  the risk for patchy frost in valleys.

- Temperatures then trend well above normal for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 321 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2024

The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure has settled
southeast along the Atlantic Coast of Georgia and a cold front is
advancing across the Midwest. The CAMS and ensembles are in good
agreement with this cold front pushing southward toward eastern
Kentucky later this evening into early Wednesday. Meanwhile, we
will see a mid-level spoke from the upper level closed low slide
across the Great Lakes introducing height falls to the Ohio
Valley. This will lead to a good chance of rain showers (60-90
percent), but it will only produce very light rainfall totals of
generally a tenth of an inch or less. The idea of these totals
match well with the LPMM of the HREF, with the higher totals of
around a tenth or a little more being in the far southeast. Timing
wise, the best chances of rain will be between midnight and 4 am
from northwest to southeast.

The guidance including the ensembles indicate the cold front will
pass through Wednesday and high pressure build in quickly at the
surface. This will lead to northwest flow and slightly cooler
temperatures than today, but clouds will clear quickly through the
day based on the HREF. High pressure will continue nosing into
the Lower Ohio Valley Wednesday night. This coupled with clear
skies will lead to mainly eastern valley frost potential late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Given this leaned toward
the previous forecast and the COOP MOS versus the 5th percentile
of the NBM. This is because the NBM 5th percentile doesn`t seem to
have a good handle on this idea. This will lead to overnight lows
in the low to mid 30s in the eastern valleys and the upper 30s to
lower 40s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2024

Models are in decent agreement in the evolution of the long term
period, yielding relatively higher confidence in the overall
forecast.

The period begins with northwest flow and cold advection underway
Wednesday night just upstream of the disturbance that crosses the
area Wednesday. A trailing wave within the northwest flow will bring
some clouds late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but overall
this will have minimal impact on temperatures. Lows in the upper 30s
to lower 40s are expected on ridgetops and exposed areas, but
sheltered valleys will likely see another round of at least patchy
frost as temperatures fall close to freezing in the lower to mid
30s. Surface high pressure will result in light easterly surface
winds Thursday under sunny skies, with highs returning to near
normal in the mid to upper 60s north to mid 70s south.

Light easterly surface winds become more southeasterly with time
Thursday night as upper ridging moves overhead and warm advection
begins to increase. Lows Thursday night will trend about 5 degrees
warmer with 40s in most locations except for mid to upper 30s in the
more sheltered eastern valleys under gradually increasing cloudiness
from the southwest.

A warm frontal passage from south to north across the Ohio Valley
will bring increasing chances for showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms Friday into Friday night, though eastern Kentucky`s
proximity to the downstream upper ridging over the eastern slopes of
the southern Appalachians will likely keep much of the better
instability and moisture just to the west. With upper ridging
strengthening over the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend, the better
forcing for ascent in association with a low pressure system over
the Central US will remain over the Mississippi River Valley and
lower Ohio River Valley, which will result in only slight chance
PoPs at best for much of Saturday into Saturday night, with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday as the
weather system slowly starts to nudge the downstream ridge eastward.
High-end chance to likely (50 to 60) PoPs are expected Monday as the
cold front moves across the area, with surface high pressure nudging
into the area behind the front at the very end of the period Monday
night resulting in decreasing PoPs.

Temperatures will warm increasingly above normal from the 70s to mid
80s for highs through Sunday, then cool back into the 70s for most
areas Monday into Tuesday with the increased chance for showers and
storms. Lows will also be on the warm side in the upper 50s and 60s
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2024

High pressure will keep it VFR until later in the period when a
cold front arrives. The clouds will increase this afternoon and
evening ahead of a weakening cold front. This will usher in the
chances for rain showers and lower Cigs (Mostly in the MVFR range)
generally after 4Z. The lower Cigs will be more likely post
frontal and will generally come in after 8Z. However, these lower
CIGs of mostly MVFR will mix out through the day at around 15Z
and after at most sites. The winds will increase out of the
southwest through the afternoon and early evening at 10-15 knots,
with gusts of 20-25 knots possible. Then we will see these winds
diminish through the evening, with LLWS of 35-40 knots possible
before front passes later tonight. The winds will shift from
southwest to west post frontal in the 5 knot range or less in
general.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...DJ