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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 240552
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
152 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPDATED WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST. PRECIP HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS WAS FORECAST...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO GOOSE THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD AND WIND GRIDS
TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...CAA PATTERN SHOULD LEAD
TO FAIRLY UNIFORM AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BY
MORNING... A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST THAN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A FRESH ZFP
ON THE WAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO KENTUCKY
FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. A LARGE AREA OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT. ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST...THERE IS A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE MOMENT. THE CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HAS DEPARTED FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TAKING ANY
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT. AS SUCH...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADDRESS THIS AND ALSO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE PCPN
THREAT WITH THE NEXT BOUNDARY. DID ALSO MINIMIZE THE RAIN CHANCES IN
THE EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THEY PICK UP AGAIN WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...MATCHED UP THE T AND TD GRIDS
FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESH SET OF ZONES AND HWO.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. IT HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS
AND THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE WV
BORDER. THERE IS A FRONT WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ONE CONCERN IS HOW COLD WILL IT GET ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS STAY
LIGHT. EXPECTING TO SOME SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST THAT
EVENING...HOWEVER NO HARD FREEZES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST MUCH LESS FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD WILL START WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER. A COMPROMISE OF THE
TWO WOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA EACH DAY. THIS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA...SO IT LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY BE
THE BEST WE DO INTO NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE WITH THE MODELS IN
DISAGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION...THINGS COULD CHANGE WARRANTING A PERIOD
OF HIGHER POPS. AFTER COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR REGION WIDE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...
AND SHOULD BE FINISHED BY 12Z...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST A WHILE LONGER FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK
UP DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL