Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 200755 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 355 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Friday) Issued at 355 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 Morning surface analysis shows the quasi-stationary boundary remains NW across the Ohio River. A secondary cold front further NW of the previously mentioned boundary. The boundary across the Ohio River region will eventually progress east across eastern KY this afternoon and evening. In terms of AM POPs did keep slights ahead of the boundary, as the LLJ kicks in and perhaps a bit of mid level forcing. These showers are actually showing up across Middle TN and portions of the Cumberland Plateau on radar this AM. However the bulk of our rainfall will come from the actual cold front and upper level wave. Right now we are looking at around three quarters to one inch of rainfall across the region through Friday. That said we also remain in a marginal risk for severe storms today from the SPC. We do have reasonable effective bulk shear values approaching 40 knots and reasonable instability. The question is how much instability with 4KM NAM remaining the more robust in relation to this, and not sure if we will realize the NAM numbers at this point given potential cloud cover. Overall CAMs would suggest a broken line will progress across the region between 21z and 00z. Given that would think the chances for marginally severe wind gusts are possible with some of these line segments. Now in terms of temps did come up from model blend particularly in the south and east for this afternoon where less cloud cover is possible early. Tonight the cold front will move out of the region, and POPs will slowly decrease from west to east toward dawn. The big news will be the colder airmass, as the base of the upper level trough axis swings across KY. This and secondary cold front will lead to a 15 to 20 degree drop in temps for Friday, as temperatures struggle to rise out of the 50s. This all as NW flow aloft leads to cloud cover and 850mb CAA continues to work in with temps in the 0 to 2 C range from NW to SE by the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 355 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 Available shortly...
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 VFR conditions are the story for the beginning of the period, but we will see decreasing VIS and Lowering CIGs late in the period. Cold front remains north of the region this hour and this will be the story through the night. There is a mid level wave and 850 mb jet that could induce a few showers toward dawn, and these showers are showing up on radar down in portions of TN this hour. However kept the POPs in the slight range at this point and generally do not introduce VCSH till 12z to 14z. By Thursday afternoon we will see chances for rain on the increase and the potential for Thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong and lead to gusty winds. Generally TAF sites will see fluctuations from MVFR to LIFR depending on the strength of the storms that happen to hit a site. Overall the first part of the period winds will remain light, but increased wind gusts are possible through the afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...DJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.