Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220800 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 The latest surface map continues to feature a weak synoptic signal, with an outflow aligned along the northern Ohio Valley, and a weak stationary front laid out from west to east from northern Wyoming to the Minnesota/Iowa border. Aloft, the ridge centered near the Oklahoma panhandle is the dominant feature. A thunderstorm complex is currently rounding the periphery of the ridge, currently impacting Illinois and Indiana. Convection has been diminishing on the eastern flank of the system, with outflow only slowly advancing to the south. Eastern Kentucky is currently enjoying another fairly cool night, with the last of the reasonable dew points in the low to mid 60s likely enjoyed for a while. Humidity will be on the rise through the short term, along with an increase in thunderstorm chances. For today, the higher resolution models have been picking up on the eventual influence from the outflow from the weakening MCS. It looks like mainly our northwestern third of the area would see the best chances of convection, with lesser coverage to the southeast, where deeper moisture will still be lacking. Highs today will make it into the lower 90s for most locations, heat indices nearing the 100 degree mark, especially west of I-75 and near the Bluegrass. Depending on the evolution of today`s convection, at least small chances of convection may linger a bit longer into tonight, with the potential of outflow boundaries. Tonight`s lows will be closer to 70 degrees, although a few of the cooler valleys may still dip into the upper 60s in the east. On Saturday, capping in general will be a little weaker, so chance pops across the entire area looks reasonable. Heat indices will approach 100 degrees for most locations as higher humidity continues to overspread the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 The models remain in general agreement with broad upper level ridging reigning across the southern half of the CONUS gradually weakening into next week. The ridge will be buckled by short wave energy riding east across southern Canada. Eventually, the ridge will consolidate back across the desert southwest and off the Carolina coast, with broad troughing taking shape across the Ohio Valley by the middle of next week, which will allow for a period of more unsettled, but slightly cooler weather. Heat...humidity...and daily chances of thunderstorms will be the rule across eastern Kentucky through early next week. The best chance of convection still looks to arrive on Monday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The boundary will stall across or just south of our area into the middle of next week, keeping chances of storms in the forecast. Better chances look to return by Thursday, with another increase in forcing.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the time as an upper level ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the period. Some IFR or worse river valley fog will develop; however, still expecting this to steer clear of the TAF sites, with the exception of some temporary restrictions closer to dawn. During the day on Friday, enough heating and moisture return will allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. The better coverage will be along and west of I-75, as well as along and north of I-64. Have allowed for VCSH at SME and LOZ, and VCTS at SYM. Isolated convection will drop off this evening as we lose heating. Winds will remain at or below 5 kts through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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