Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211455 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1055 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. TRENDS AND LOOKING AT CONDITIONS UPSTREAM WOULD SUGGEST THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT WOULD RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...THE LIKELY CASE OF CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPERATURE. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE EXPECTED MAX TEMP FOR TODAY A FEW DEGREES. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP. UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 WSR-88D STILL PICKING UP ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DREARY FALL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEED THIS HOUR.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN THE CULPRIT OF THE LATE EVENING YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS WANED BY THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND WEAK/SHEARED SHORTWAVE. THIS MORNING THE 07Z WSR-88D STILL SHOWS SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. EASTERN KY WILL BE MEET WITH A FALL LIKE DAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL USHER IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COUPLED WITH NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS EVENING A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH NO AFFECT IN TERMS OF POPS. RIGHT NOW THINK THE CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT MORE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS COOL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS EASTERN KY. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...BUT AT MOST BRINGS A FEW MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FAR NORTH BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEPARTURE OF A COOL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL SHARPEN UP HEADING INTO MEMORIAL DAY BUT ALSO SHIFT ITS AXIS MORE TOWARD THE EAST. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROLLING OUT OF A BROAD TROUGH OPENING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND LATER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT REALLY BRUSH CLOSE TO EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS ITS CASE INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE RETREATS FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND STARTS TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND FOR WX DETAILS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A HEAVY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO POPS AND SKY COVER. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AT THE SFC. THE RIDGE SEEMS TOO STRONG AND ANY SYNOPTIC FEATURES TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WX THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE HIGHER CONSENSUS POPS AS SEEN IN THE SUPERBLEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE LESS OF A FACTOR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...PEAKING EACH AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THIS PATTERN IS A GOOD SETUP FOR RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS EACH NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WHEN WE ARE MORE DRY. THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS... BUT SEEMED TOO WET FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ALSO MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS EACH NIGHT EMPHASIZING THE LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE MOVING THEIR WAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS IS HELPING LEADING TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND VIS ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THE TAF SITES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING GENERALLY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME REPRIEVE THIS EVENING WITH SOME MIXING OUT AND RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE KEY ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE IF FOG IS ABLE TO FORM WITH ONLY MINOR INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF. THINKING RIGHT NOW THIS WILL BE MORE PATCHY AND LIMITED TO THE VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE STORY IN TERMS OF WINDS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...DJ

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