Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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573 FXUS63 KJKL 201543 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1043 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1043 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018 Decreased cloud cover into the afternoon with downslope flow in place and no expansion of cloud cover observed via GOES satellite. Temperatures have already warmed into the mid 70s in the valleys and looks like we are still on pace to reach into the 80s in many if not most locations today. This will be close to if not the warmest February day on record for most. No other changes planned at this time. UPDATE Issued at 630 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018 Again touched up the sky cover grids through mid morning and also added in the latest T and Td obs/trends. These grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018 08z sfc analysis shows a well defined warm front off to the northwest of the area with high pressure holding on through eastern Kentucky and points southeast. The pressure gradient between these two features is keeping the winds moving from the south to southwest above the inversion. This is supporting a very mild night for most places, though a large ridge to valley difference has set up with readings varying from the upper 40s in the most sheltered eastern valleys to the low and mid 60s on the ridges and in the more open areas. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are in the low to mid 50s with winds generally 5 to 10 mph, though occasional gusts to 15 mph are noted. Some mid and high level clouds passing by, and the warm temperatures, are keeping any fog at bay so far this night with that expected to be the case through dawn. The models are in terrific agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. The abnormally strong ridge will hold off the Southeast Coast while any energy streams by well to the north and west of Kentucky today and tonight. A shift in this ridge will allow slightly lower heights to slip into the area on Wednesday, though, along with more packets of energy strafing closer to the CWA. Given the model matches will favor a blend with a lean toward the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12 for specifics. Sensible weather will feature a very unseasonably warm day in the warm sector of a larger system to the west. In fact, with the right amount of sunshine at peak heating we could set a max temperature record for the month at JKL - while a daily record high is nearly assured. Southwest winds - breezy through the western portion of the area - will help to support warm conditions. These winds could also produce some gusts to 30 mph this afternoon in the western parts of the area and this will be highlighted in the HWO. For tonight, see a repeat with slightly warmer temperatures and just as much of a ridge to valley difference in the east - more muted distinctions will be noted to the west. Again fog will be hard to get due to the warmth and clouds. Wednesday will be plenty warm, too - especially in the east. The boundary to the northwest wavers into the area with showers and even a thunderstorm or two possible for Wednesday afternoon. More clouds and the rain potential will lower max temps for the west on Wednesday. There is some question of whether the front will be able to push too deep into eastern Kentucky and this should spare the headwaters of our rivers from the heavier rains in the near term. That may not be the case later in the week. Again used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for all the grids through the short term. Continued to make significant changes to the eastern valleys for lows tonight and also more minor adjustments to the spot high temperature forecasts for today and Wednesday. As for PoPs, allowed for some marginal pre-frontal activity seeping up the spine of the Appalachians tonight and Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 240 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018 The extended period will feature above normal temperatures and an active weather pattern. A series of weather systems will bring multiple rounds of rain to eastern Kentucky over the next seven days. We ma even see a few thunderstorms across the area Wednesday evening and again during the day on Friday. Several days of good soaking rainfall are on tap. Temperatures on the warmest days should max out in the 70s, while the less warm days will see highs in the 50s and 60s across the area. Nightly lows will follow a similar pattern, with the warmest readings only falling into the 50s, and the cooler nights seeing lows in the 40s. Friday will be the windiest day during the period, with southwest flow of 10 to 15 mph expected on that day. Sunday will also be quite breezy, with west winds coming in at 10 to 15 mph that day as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 710 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018 VFR conditions can be expected throughout the TAF period for eastern Kentucky as the lower cigs will be kept well to the northwest until later Wednesday. An ongoing LLJ is in place across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley necessitating LLWS in the TAFs until around 15z. This waning LLJ will likely lead to some gusty winds mixing down late this morning and into the afternoon. Overall, we will be looking at some 20 to 25 knot gusts for our western airports, but higher gusts are not out of the question mainly to the northwest of the official TAF sites. Look for more LLWS to be a concern later this evening and continuing into Wednesday morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

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