Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231038 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 638 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR. UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JMW

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