Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 180000 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 8:00 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017 23z sfc analysis shows high pressure firmly in control of the weather through eastern Kentucky. However, a batch of generally thin and high clouds will cross into the region through at least the first part of the night likely affecting the otherwise perfect conditions for radiational cooling. We should still see temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30s in the more sheltered locations with low 40s found on the ridges by dawn. Again expect the fog to dominate over frost with dense areas anticipated along the rivers and lakes. Given the widely scattered frost and dense fog issues late tonight into Wednesday morning will continue the highlights in the ongoing SPS and HWO. Currently readings are in the mid 50s on the ridges with upper 40s seen already in the sheltered valleys while dewpoints are generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s and the winds remain light. have updated the forecast mainly to fine tune spot min temperatures and frost/fog configuration later tonight. Did also incorporate the latest T/Td obs and trends into those grids along with an update to sky cover through the near term. These grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017 The afternoon surface analysis shows a fairly broad area of high pressure extending from the Mid-Atlantic to northeast Arkansas. The highest surface pressure seems to point to West VA being closest to the center of this high. The latest GOES-16 Sat data shows a few high clouds now moving into western Kentucky in advance of a weak upper level trough. These clouds will advance eastward tonight and this could play a tricky role on fog and frost overnight. Overall keep the coldest temperatures in the far eastern deeper valley locations where you are getting better mixing of drier air than yesterday. Given the potential for fog and at least patchy frost will lean toward a SPS for now, as factors mentioned before lead to some potential complications in formation of weather elements. The frost and fog will generally dissipate between 13 the 14Z Wednesday morning and we will be left with mostly sunny skies. There could be a few afternoon high clouds as the upper level wave axis moves slowly eastward across the Ohio Valley. The area of surface high pressure will however remain near by and lead to clear and calm conditions again Wednesday night. That said, the temperatures will remain coolest in the far eastern valleys based on the surface high location and slight height rises in the Lake Cumberland region. Given the temperatures are not as low will keep the patchy valley fog mention only. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017 Dry and pleasant weather is in store for the majority of the extended period, as a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain in place across the region. Daytime highs are expected to be above normal during the period, with daily max values in the 70s expected across the area. Nightly lows should also be above normal, with nightly minimums ranging from the mid to upper 40s Thursday night and Friday night and the upper 40s to mid 50s Saturday night and Sunday night. A pattern change is in store to close out the weekend, and based on the latest model data, it appears that next batch of rain will arrive in the area Sunday night, as a large trough of low pressure, and its attendant surface cold front, makes it way across the central and eastern CONUS. The highest probability for rain will likely be from around dawn on Monday through Monday night, as the cold front moves slowly across the region. Light to at times moderate rain showers will affect eastern Kentucky during the passage of the front. Another shot of colder air is expected to filter into the area once the front passes by to begin the upcoming work week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 7:30 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017 High pressure remains in control of the weather through the TAF period. Given this we will see mostly VFR conditions. The exception will be the river valleys where dense fog will be found late tonight. It is possible that some of the fog advects into SME overnight and toward dawn Wednesday. All the fog will dissipate between 13 and 14Z Wednesday morning. Winds through the TAF period will remain light.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.