Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 041857 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON. GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 60S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW 1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...KAS

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