Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281908 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 308 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. BASICALLY INCREASED TEMPS A BIT IN THE SOUTH...LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NORTHEAST BASED ON TRENDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC DEW POINTS ARE ON THE RISE...RESULTING IN CONDITIONS NOT QUITE AS COMFORTABLE AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING...AS IS THE WEATHER. SHORTWAVE RIDGING INDUCED BY APPROACHING TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP OUT WEATHER NICE FOR ANOTHER DAY...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DUE TO RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT MAY NOT FEEL QUITE AS COMFORTABLE AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS WHICH RESULTED IN FEW IF ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 FRESHENED UP THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER JIVE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT BEING ENJOYED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MOST VALLEYS HAVE DIPPED DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT IN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY DO LOOK A BIT OVERDONE ON THE MOISTURE...AND WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT...THINK THAT THE CAP SHOULD HOLD MOST CONVECTION AT BAY BESIDES A STRAY POP UP. A WEAK 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENGAGE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND A WEAKER CAP ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CAP IN THE EAST MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF ANY POP UPS...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER...AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 OUR FORECAST IS A TAD BIT MUDDLED AS THE AREA LIES IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CORES...ONE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN BETWEEN THESE RIDGE CORES WILL AFFECT US THROUGH TIME. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE CORE TO OUR EAST TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY SOME MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION. ONCE THIS PASSES...THE THREAT FOR RAIN DIMINISHES WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES...ALBEIT LOW...WILL THEN CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT REAL CONSENSUS ON WHERE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE BY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME MVFR FOG AT SME AND LOZ AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP BACK INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY TENDENCY TO THEM BY SATURDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...RAY

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