Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281954 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 354 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 As of mid afternoon, the region remains on the western edge of a ridge centered over the Atlantic that extends west into the Mid Atlantic States and Mid Ohio Valley region. West of the area, a trough extended from the Dakotas/Upper MS Valley region south toward the Arklatex region. In addition, a couple of rather weak shortwave troughs were moving from the MS Valley region toward the Lower OH Valley and Great Lakes region. TD TWO continues to inch closer to the South Carolina coastline late this afternoon. Tonight into Sunday, the trough is expected to approach the Great Lakes on Ohio Valley region and lead to a bit of height falls late tonight. In addition, the upper level system associated with TD TWO is expected to be drawn northwest inland of the Carolinas/GA in response to the trough passing to the north. However, the model consensus does not pick up or merge it with this upper trough and this upper level disturbance should meander over the Southeast through the end of the period. Meanwhile, the shortwave generally passing north of the area through the Great lakes and toward the Northeast by the end of the period should send a cold front toward the region late in the period. Very isolated convection has developed so far this afternoon and recent trends point toward much of the cu field having mixed out. In addition, this mixing has brought dewpoints back down into the lower 60s is several locations. Recent short term model runs such as as the HRRR have less convection this evening across the area and this seems very reasonable given the recent trends. With that in mind, we have isolated chances through early evening across central and eastern locations and scattered chances across the west closer to the slowly approaching wave and boundary. With the loss of daytime heating, the convection should generally dissipate around sunset this evening, if not before. A stray shower or two cannot be ruled out in the warm sector overnight. Valley fog will again be a threat, especially if clouds can scatter out for a while. The few locations that received rain may also experience fog. Daytime heating and the wave passing by to the north and northwest as well as the boundary approaching should lead to isolated to scattered convection on Sunday. The threat for convection will linger into Sunday evening, but wane around or shortly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Fog should again develop in the valleys on Sunday night and where rain occurs on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 234 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Confidence has increased that we will see a longer stretch of dry weather from Monday through Wednesday night. A cold front will be slipping southeast to start the day on Monday, with perhaps a few pop up showers possible along the boundary before it departs southeast by midday. High pressure will then center itself over the area late Monday through Tuesday. Slightly less humidity will also be seen through the early portion of the week making for a fairly pleasant memorial day and Tuesday. By Wednesday, moisture starts to return as we see return flow kick in. However, still missing a trigger for convection through Wednesday afternoon so coverage will remain very sparse. Best chances may be for convection to form along a ridge axis, but may still see a weak mid level cap preventing convection from getting organized or seeing much thunder. Any convection will diminish Wednesday evening setting the stage for a quiet night. The period of more tranquil weather will likely come to an end by Thursday as a shortwave trough pushes a frontal boundary into the Ohio river valley. Return flow should increase ahead of this front bring ample moisture into the region. This coupled with forcing aloft should allow for increased coverage in showers and storms by Thursday evening. Still a ways out, but there may be just enough shear in place to support a low end severe event for the area. Still plenty of time for this to evolve, but since it may be the most noteworthy thing in the extended, probably worth mentioning. The boundary may stall somewhere in the region for the rest of the week, keeping the weather unsettled, but confidence is low on placement of the boundary pending the convection on Thursday. Regardless, will carry chance pops through the remainder of the forecast period. Overall temperatures will remain mild with highs into the 80s each day and lows in the 60s. We could see some lows into the 50s Monday night and Tuesday night with the slightly less humid airmass. However, that won`t be the case later in the week as humidity returns.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Outside of heavier showers and any thunderstorms as well as fog between 6z and 14z, VFR should prevail. Isolated to scattered convection is anticipated, mainly through 0Z and then again late in the period after 9Z. As previously noted, the renewed potential for fog later tonight, should mainly be dictated by places that experience any rain this afternoon or evening and the typically favored valley locations. Winds will remain light through the period outside of any thunderstorms. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP

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