Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 282000 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 400 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017 Quite a bit of uncertainty still exists in the model data regarding convective initiation and evolution this afternoon through late this evening across eastern Kentucky. The best guess for now is that storms that will be forming to our west and southwest will eventually move into our northwestern counties late this afternoon, and will move across the area generally north of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80 corridor through early tomorrow morning. Any storm that does make into the area will have the potential of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado. A severe weather watch may be necessary to begin the evening shift. The first showers and storms should move into our northwestern counties around 22Z, and will move east across the northern half of the forecast area overnight. Temperatures should continue to run well above normal, with nightly lows only bottoming out in the 60s tonight and tomorrow night, and highs maxing out in the upper 80s and lower 90s on Saturday. Winds should be primarily out of the south at 7 to 12 mph through the period. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017 The models are still in good agreement aloft for the bulk of the extended period. They all depict a strong ridge through the southeast portion of the nation with broad southwest flow ahead of a deep closed low moving into the Texas Panhandle early Sunday. This low will further deepen and lift into the mid Mississippi Valley by Monday morning with the GFS a bit quicker and more northerly than the ECMWF. Both are quite deep, though, with height falls spreading through Kentucky. This bowling ball of a low then barrels into the western Great Lakes by Tuesday morning similar, but still with the GFS leading the ECMWF. The Canadian solution is similar to the others lending confidence to the consensus solution at least through mid week. As this low transitions past to the north the core of its energy will swing through eastern Kentucky Monday morning with another significant node passing early Tuesday. The pattern will then slowly deamplify through Wednesday with more zonal type of flow through the region before the next trough starts to take shape over the southern High Plains. This trough quickly sinks to the south and reaches the Gulf Coast by Thursday afternoon before wrapping up more and closing off over the Deep South by 12z Friday - quickest and furthest east in the ECMWF than the others. This low will then slowly traverse the Deep South off to the east - maintaining the low heights and cyclonic mid level flow over eastern Kentucky. Given the decent agreement for the extended have greater than normal confidence in the extended forecast from the blend. Sensible weather will feature a warm and humid end to the weekend ahead of a drying out cold front. After highs in the upper 80s most places on Sunday afternoon the front will move through by Monday morning with a threat for storms as well as ushering in a cooler and drier air mass. This air quickly gets replaced by another surge of moisture from the south starting on Wednesday as a warm front stalls nearby with a concern for storms and heavy rains that afternoon through Thursday. The developing sfc low to our south for the latter part of the week will keep the threat of showers and a stray storm in the forecast through Thursday followed by mainly just showers and seasonably cool temperatures - a far cry from those that we will see this weekend. Raised temps a tad on Sunday with more sunshine expected and being rain free. Did make some minor adjustments to temperatures each night - particularly for ridge to valley differences early Sunday night and again Tuesday night. Also, fine tuned the PoPs to tighten them up with the fropa on Monday morning and heading into the Wednesday system.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017 VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites for now. SCT to BKN high level cloud cover, with a few low level clouds and an isolated rain showers, will be in place across the area this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin forming and should be moving into the area by 22Z today. The forecast details become quite murky after that, as the model data has still not settled on any one solution. The best guess for now is that scattered showers and storms will push across the area generally north of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80 corridor. Some storms may be severe with large hail, an isolated tornado and damaging wind gusts all possible. At this time it appears that JKL, SYM, and SJS will have the next chances for seeing a shower or storm between 22Z today and 5Z tonight. Winds will be generally out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Any TAF site that experiences a thunderstorms could see strong gusty winds and MVFR to IFR VSBYs.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...AR

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