Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 040548 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1248 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 UPDATED THE WEATHER GRIDS TO INCLUDE FOG ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH 11Z TODAY AS A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS HAVE AREAS OF DENSE FOG NORTH...EAST...AND WEST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE SO FAR TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH OBS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST PLACES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 510 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AS WE FIND OURSELF ON THE LEE SIDE OF A TROUGHING PATTERN. A CENTER OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE...BEING PUSHED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. AS IT DOES...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS KY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER A WARM FRONT IMPACTED US TODAY...TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP AREA TEMPS AT BAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN CWA EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 40. THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA MAY EVEN STILL STAY IN THE LOW 50S. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL FOCUS AROUND THE RAIN. MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO AGREE THAT THE BEST BAND OF QPF WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SPREAD NE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. WITH STRONG LIFT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...QPF OF BETWEEN AN INCH AND A QUARTER AND AN INCH AND A HALF ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH A THIRD TO A HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA. RAIN WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IF THE RAIN WASN/T ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME CONCERNS...WE ARE ALSO STILL DEALING WITH SOME SNOWPACK ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SE CWA. LUCKILY...THE SE WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT REGARDLESS...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL LEAD TO SNOWMELT...ENHANCING THE RUNOFF AND THEREFORE FLOODING POTENTIAL. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND HEADWATERS TO BE RUNNING HIGH. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. QPF HAS BEEN COMING IN LIGHTER ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND HEADWATERS OF THE KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHERE AROUND 2 INCHES IS NOW EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST QPF HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW PAINTING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS/I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW/SLEET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BLUEGRASS AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FURTHER SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR WILL UNDERCUT THE WARM NOSE...WITH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES RESISTING THIS THE LONGEST. SOME ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WITH SUCH A SHARP GRADIENT AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES LINGERING...THE ICE IMPACT MAY BE MORE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. THE SNOW TOTALS LOOK IMPRESSIVE CLOSER TO THE I-64 CORRIDOR... WHERE UPWARDS OF 10 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE. AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH THE SLEET WILL CUT DOWN ON THE OVERALL TOTALS. THE SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN COUNTIES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS...WITH THE WARM NOSE HANGING ON LONGER...HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF HEAVIER SLEET. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A WARNING FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE BLUEGRASS...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LIKELY NOT SEEING A TRANSITION OVER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING OR BEYOND. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH...TO THE MID 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TAKE A GOOD 25 DEGREE DIVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY LIKELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE (AND QUIET WEATHER) WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS... WITH A FEW SPOTS IN OUR NORTH POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 0 DEGREES... WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH AND NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE COLD SNAP APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 MOST OF THE TAF SITES WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS JKL...WHICH WAS SOCKED IN WITH THICK FOG AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND IN EFFECT WASHES OUT THE FOG. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POSSIBLE SHORT PERIODS OF IFR IF THICKER FOG IS ABLE TO FORM OR DURING INTENSE BRIEF DOWN POURS OF RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM UNTIL AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...IT APPEARS THAT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND RAIN BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z. GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE CHALLENGING AT OUR AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ058>060-104-106-108-111. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>086-107-109-110-112>117-119-120. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...JMW/GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...AR

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