Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 082054 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 454 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .MESOSCALE UPDATE... ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 STORMS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME ORGANIZING. UPDRAFTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ABLE TO MUSTER ENOUGH STRENGTH TO OVERCOME SOME WARM AIR BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS WARM LAYER GOING AWAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DWINDLING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...BUT BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS AND STORMS SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND IGNITE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST OVER OUR AREA...BUT LATEST RAP MAKES A LITTLE MORE SENSE CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT. IT DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND THEN TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION THEN MOVES OVER US INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION LOOKING TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY. FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AND DID LOWER POPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BASED ON MODEL DATA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE AGAIN...BUT MODELS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH ADEQUATE CAPE TO POP OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS TEMPS RISE AGAIN INTO THE 80S. THIS THREAT WILL END QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME AROUND. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS COMING MUCH MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS MODEL...WITH A DRY START TO THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS NOW FOR A VIGOROUS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHERN CANADA AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE AT ITS MOST POTENT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...AS IT DIPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN LENDING ITSELF TO MORE MOIST AND ACTIVE PERIOD AND RAIN CHANCES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLER DAY TIME HIGHS OCCURRING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE START OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WARM AND HUMID. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A HINDRANCE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN BY SUNSET. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WHERE STORMS HIT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS...PARTICULARLY FROM JKL SOUTH...INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADVERTISE AN MVFR CEILING OCCURRING AT TAF SITES AFTER 08Z AND LASTING UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE THEREAFTER. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE...ABE SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...ABE

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