Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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005 FXUS63 KJKL 181139 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 639 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 620 AM EST WED JAN 18 2017 Did a quick update to the grids to account for the latest obs and trends - keeping the patchy drizzle and sprinkles in there for a couple of more hours. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 355 AM EST WED JAN 18 2017 08z sfc analysis shows a cold front departing to the east while high pressure builds in from the west. However, plenty of low level moisture remains in place and, along with the passage of a compact upper trough to the northeast early this morning, this is keeping the cigs low and a potential for drizzle or sprinkles in the forecast through dawn. Temperatures remain mild overnight for this time of year with readings varying from the low 40s northwest to the lower 50s in the southeast. Dewpoints are not far off from the dry bulb temperatures - just a few degrees lower in most places. Meanwhile, winds are from the northwest to west at 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts to 15 mph. Patchy fog also is found through the area early this morning. The models are in better agreement aloft than last night as they all depict a sharp trough - with minimal spread - diving into the Central Appalachians from the northwest early this morning. This is followed by a quick shot of ridging today and renewed deep layer southwest flow later tonight and Thursday in the face of a deep and broad closed low over the High Plains. In this flow, a lead batch of energy will lift into the Tennessee Valley early Thursday with more support and height falls arriving by evening. Given the better model agreement will favor a blend, though with a strong lean toward the HRRR in the near term. Sensible weather will feature patches of sprinkles and drizzle around this morning before a lull for drying sets up later today and tonight as high pressure passes quickly over the area. The next system then approaches from the southwest late tonight pressing into the Cumberland Valley on Thursday. All the while warm weather continues so that all pcpn will continue to be only in the form of rain across eastern Kentucky through the short term and well beyond. Again started with the CONSShort and ShortBlend for most elements through the short term portion of the forecast - making only minor adjustments to the low temps tonight. Also, adjusted PoPs to spread the next round of pcpn in a bit quicker and slightly more extensively on Thursday than suggested by the CONSShort. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 245 AM EST WED JAN 18 2017 The models overall were in good agreement once again in the extended, with a few timing differences here and there and the ECWMF being a bit slower than the GFS. That said, the general consensus is for a series of low pressure systems aloft to move across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions this weekend into the first of next week. Each of these systems will bring a good chance of rain to eastern Kentucky, with the potential for moderate rainfall from time to time. We should see a break in the action Friday night and Saturday, before things ramp up again Saturday night and Sunday. The first round of rain is slated for Thursday night and Friday, as a well developed area of low pressure moves out of the southern Mississippi valley and across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. The second round of rain is expected Saturday night and Sunday, as a warm front, associated with an area of southern Plains low pressure, makes its way northward across our area. This boundary will likely bring only scattered showers to the area initially, with the activity forming well ahead of the boundary. Once the front moves closer to and across our area early Sunday morning, we should see numerous rain showers through out the morning. The activity should taper off again by Sunday afternoon, after the front moves to our north. The main shot of rain is expected from late Sunday afternoon through late Monday, as a strengthening, and therefore slow moving, area of low pressure ejects out of the southern Plains and across the lower Tennessee valley region. The models begin to diverge here slightly, with the GFS depicting a split of energy, with an area of low pressure breaking off from the main low Monday and Monday night and slowly moving toward the eastern Great Lakes. The ECWMF, no the other hand, tries to keep the southern Plains low more consolidated as it moves across the region. The end result is still going to be widespread rainfall across the area from this weekend through the beginning of next week. A third weather system may bring some scattered showers back to eastern Kentucky by Wednesday. Temperatures during the period will be well above normal, with daily highs in the 60s expected over the weekend, and daytime maximums in the 50s the first couple of days of the new work week. Nightly lows will generally be in the 40s, with a few locations perhaps seeing lows around 50 Friday and Sunday mornings. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 640 AM EST WED JAN 18 2017 MVFR and IFR cig conditions will continue through the morning hours at most places before lifting and breaking up in the wake of a compact upper wave that is moving past to the northeast. This has prompted the development of a few light rain showers or sprinkles across the area - mainly north and east of JKL. West to northwest winds of near 10 kts, will diminish to around 5 kts or less by evening and continue light through dawn Thursday.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

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