Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 201754 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 154 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2017 Only minor changes needed to deal with the latest obs and trends. Otherwise forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1050 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2017 Surface analysis indicates an area of high pressure to out north across eastern PA and a weak stationary boundary to out north nearer the Ohio River. The general surface high pressure and rising heights will lead to another dry day across eastern KY. The fog has now burned off for most based on Sat trends and therefore have dropped the mention out of the text products. Otherwise only minor changes needed for the latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 746 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2017 Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points through this morning, otherwise the forecast remains on track.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 313 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2017 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary located just north of the Ohio River, amidst high pressure generally sprawled from the eastern Ohio Valley down through the southern Appalachians. Aloft, a short wave trough is pulling away across New England, with rising heights across the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley. Warming temperatures and mostly clear skies will be on tap across eastern Kentucky through the short term, as an upper level ridge builds in across the southeastern CONUS. Highs will average in the upper 80s today, with lows in the mid to upper 60s tonight. Expect some diurnally driven cumulus, but little in the way of upper level clouds. For Monday, some thin cirrus will be advecting in from the northwest during the day, and there will also be a touch more afternoon cumulus, given the slight uptick in low level moisture. Overall, this should not impede a good viewing of the eclipse. Highs will be in the upper 80s once again, with a few to several degree drop in temperatures during the peak of the eclipse. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2017 Strong upper level ridging in place will begin to break down Monday night as a longwave trough pushes into the Ohio Valley. This trough will remain in place, deepening, through the remainder of the work week. Models are in good agreement of this troughing pattern through this time, having it finally exiting east of the state during the day Friday. Increasing heights are expected through the weekend, though both the GFS and ECMWF are supporting generally WNW flow and a couple of shortwaves passing eastward through the state as we head into the weekend. At the surface, still expecting a cold front to be located NE of the region, in the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will begin exiting the state to the SE, allowing for return flow across the state ahead of this approaching frontal boundary. The front is poised to make it to the Ohio River during the late evening Tuesday, traversing the CWA Tuesday night and into the day Wednesday, getting briefly hung up along the high terrain, before exiting to our SE by Wednesday afternoon. With the increased SW flow ahead of the system, shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to begin plaguing the CWA during the day Tuesday, increasing in coverage along the frontal boundary Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Once the front passes, much more stable air will move in behind, quickly cutting off any remaining thunder potential in the leftover precip. Have only rain mentioned for late Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday night, though wouldn`t be surprised if dry air moves in quick enough to cut off precip chances quicker than forecast. For the remainder of the work week, surface high pressure will be in place. The upper level troughing in place will promote NW flow across the region, helping to keep temperatures at bay (below seasonal normals). Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 70s, with upper 70s to around 80 expected through the end of the forecast period. Northerly winds will also promote less humidity, making for pleasant conditions into the weekend. Despite the strong high pressure in place, the above mentioned shortwaves that may pass over the region during the weekend could lead to a stray diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm. The best chance for this will be Sunday as the high starts to drift to our NE and more southerly flow makes it back into the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2017 Surface analysis shows an area of high pressure parked across SW PA and a warm front lifting north across the Ohio Valley. We will remain under the influence of the surface high pressure and rising heights. This will lead to a typical summer like pattern across eastern KY, with a few higher clouds and a few low level CU at about 5 kft. The CU will dissipate this evening and mostly clear skies will prevail. This will be the catalyst for fog development once again tonight. Given the conditions last night will lean toward low MVFR VIS toward 06Z at SME/LOZ/SYM. This fog is expected to lift and burn off by around 13Z or so Monday morning. We could see some afternoon CU again Monday around 5 kft, but uncertain on how coverage will be affected by solar eclipse across eastern KY. Winds will remain light for the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...DJ

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