Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290802 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 302 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014 THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL FEATURE MILDER WEATHER AND SLOWLY INCREASING RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO RETREAT THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO START THE DAY. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A DECK OF 4-6KFT...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS MIDDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THESE CLOUDS. NOT SURE WE WILL SUSTAIN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE ON TOP OF THE CURRENT TRENDS...SO FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY FOR TH FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY STAY AROUND 50 WITH THE CLOUDS TOWARDS MIDDAY SLOWING DOWN THE RISE. BY TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMPS UP ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. OUR NORTHERN ZONES CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE EDGE OF THIS EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND THUS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS WITH BASICALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH. ALSO WENT WITH A BUFFER ZONE OF A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THERE ARE NO REAL SHIFTS IN THE WEATHER REGIME. IF ANYTHING...THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE/RAIN MIGHT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY KEEP MOST OF OUR WEEKEND MAINLY DRY. CLOUDS ARE STILL VERY MUCH A QUESTION MARK FOR SUNDAY...WITH A MODEL BLEND PROVIDING A NICE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS AT THE MOMENT...BUT IF RAIN CHANCES RETREAT NORTHWARD...IT MAY BE CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO RETREAT...PROVIDING MORE POTENTIAL FOR SUN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. REGARDLESS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER ON SUNDAY AND HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF MOS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014 LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS CREEPING INTO THE AREA WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BRINGS IN SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO KEEP EVERYTHING VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING BACK SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONG INVERSIONS SET UP BOTH NIGHTS...WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY...A COMPROMISED SOLUTION WOULD STILL YIELD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 2O TO 30 MPH. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS. THIS WINDS SHOULD PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN THIS EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...KAS

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