Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 270536 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 136 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD GRIDS. ALSO BUMPED SKY COVER UP SLIGHTLY GIVEN SOME REMAINING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE EVENING WORDING. CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS LEFT OUT THERE. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST...WE SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE FORECAST LOWS DESPITE THE FASTER DROP OFF THIS EVENING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 524 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 UPDATED TO LESSEN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE PEAKED AND ARE GIVING WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE DRY MILD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING US A TASTE OF EARLY FALL LIKE WEATHER. THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST REMAINS A TEMPERATURE AND SKY COVER FORECAST. THE CU/SC FIELD THAT RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS MUCH MORE EXTENSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WITH THE RELAXING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LATER TONIGHT DO THINK THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT. LAST NIGHT THE CLOUDS LINGERED LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND THIS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING AS COOL AS FORECAST IN MOST AREAS. FORECAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER TONIGHT THAN MODELS SUGGEST...BUT NOT AS LONG AS LAST NIGHT. WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT BUT NOT AS LARGE AS IF SKIES WERE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND LESS CLOUD COVER...THE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT WILL BE GREATER FOR FRIDAY MORNING MINIMUMS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOT AS DEEP. IT WILL STILL BE MILD THOUGH WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 3O4 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY AND MAY PARTIALLY PHASE WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...OR SUNDAY PROPER. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY EXITS TO OUR EAST BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WINDOW. A BIG SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HANDING THIS SYSTEM ONLY A LITTLE OVER 72 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST IS LEADING TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 0Z ECMWF...SLOWER AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE CARRIES THE ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE GULF OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY INTERACTION WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SYSTEM. THE 06/12Z GFS SPLITS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...THUS ADVERTISING A MORE DISORGANIZED SYSTEM AS PART OF ITS ENERGY RIDES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PART OF IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS THEN SHOWS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL PHASING WITH WITH THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF. APPLYING A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES/INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS...WE APPEAR TO BE HEADING INTO A MORE SEASONABLE LATE SUMMER TIME TYPE WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR THE RETURN OF HEAT AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD EXPECT THAT USING A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE SHOULD HANDLE TRENDS EXCEPTIONALLY WELL. BASICALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK UP TO NORMAL VALUES...AND ISOLD TO SCT POPS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT. ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CLOUDS LINGER...WITH FOG FORMATION LESS LIKELY THE LONGER THE CLOUDS LAST. EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM NEAR DAWN TO REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...STAYING OUT OF THE TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE CALM BUT THEN WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JVM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.