Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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682 FXUS63 KJKL 221750 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 150 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 120 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 Did a quick update to fine tune T/Td and allow for some lingering clouds through mid afternoon before fading fast toward evening. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. Also, sent out a freshened set of zones earlier - mainly to remove morning/afternoon wording. UPDATE Issued at 1035 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 14z sfc analysis shows low pressure, and its tight pressure gradient, pulling away from Kentucky as high pressure moves into the deep south. This will lead to improving conditions today as chilly morning lows, in some places down in the upper 30s, will climb into the 50s thanks to returning sunshine as the low clouds shift off to the east. However, winds of 5 to 10 mph from the northwest will keep an added chill in the air. At this time, temperatures are running in the 45 to 50 degree range with dewpoints generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Have updated the near term forecast to infuse the latest CONSShort and ShortBlend model guidance, fine tune sky cover, and tweak the T/Td grids for the latest obs/trends. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. Will likely issue a fresh set of zones around noon as the lower clouds start to clear out of the east and to remove morning wording in the ZFP. UPDATE Issued at 759 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 Freshened up the sky cover, temperatures, and dew points, according to the latest trends in observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 Surface high pressure is currently centered across Arkansas, with ridging nosed north into the Great Lakes. An area of low pressure is gradually pulling off of the New England coast. Aloft, troughing is moving towards the Eastern Seaboard, with broad ridging occurring across the Plains. Heights will gradually recover across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys through the short term, with the surface high pressure sliding southeast, reaching the gulf coast states by Sunday. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will emerge from the Plains and head east, dragging a cold front across the Ohio Valley by late Sunday. Partly cloudy and cool conditions will be on tap today across eastern Kentucky, as highs struggle into the mid to upper 50s. Skies will clear out tonight, with valleys down into the upper 30s. Southwest winds will engage on Sunday, with some gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible during the afternoon. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today, with upper 60s to lower 70s expected. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 The forecast has a reasonable amount of confidence through the upcoming week as models continue to align fairly well. It looks like a dry cold front will sweep south Sunday night and Monday, doing nothing more than keeping temperatures a tad cooler. Still looks like highs should top out in the 60s both Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday could be interesting as model soundings show quite a bit of dry air just off the surface and we should be able to mix deep into the dry air with relative humidities possibly falling to 25 percent or lower. This could also help send our afternoon temperatures higher, with a large diurnal swing anticipated. Despite the chilly start with lows in the 30s Tuesday morning, should still be able to pull off some mid 60s for highs. Opted to keep frost out of the forecast given we really never tap into the lower dewpoints until Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints generally above freezing typically support more fog. Frost might be more possible in a few sheltered eastern valleys Wednesday morning, but again, such low coverage not worth mentioning in the forecast. Models are all trending sharper with a mid level trough pushing across the area from late Wednesday through Thursday. Forecast pops have been increased to high end chance and likely for Thursday with this forecast package. Both the ECMWF and GFS support rainfall totals exceeding a half an inch on Thursday. I would imagine rain chances will continue to increase with modest model agreement. The 00z GFS is so much stronger with the feature on Thursday, it actually generates a cut off low. This solution has been very much an outlier from previous model runs, and will maintain a faster moving system with rain chances exiting Thursday night. Plan to leave the forecast dry into the following weekend per the ECMWF solution with strong ridging building across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 VFR conditions will be the rule throughout the period. Scattered to broken stratocu in the 4-6k feet agl range will break up and thin from west to east during the rest of the afternoon - SKC conditions then follow through the night. Any fog will be confined to the deepest river valleys towards dawn and not impact the TAF sites. Northwest winds will continue at 5 to 10 kts, with an occasional gust to 15 kts, through early this evening, before diminishing thereafter. Winds will pick up again after mid morning on Sunday with some gusts approaching 20 kts by afternoon under clear/sunny skies. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.