Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251440 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1040 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1038 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 Updated pops and QPF based on latest radar trends, to better account for precip placement and movement over the next few hours. Overall changes were not overly significant, but did reflect the slightly quicker trend the radar was having over the current forecast. Also made sure the near term temp, dew point, and wind forecasts were up to date by loading in the latest observations. All grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new set of zones was sent out to update morning wording. UPDATE Issued at 728 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 WSR-88D radar is showing an area of rain slowly progressing SE toward the region and you can see the spin of this vertically stacked low when animated. This surface low and upper level low will progress east today and rain will continue to spread east across the region. Updated grids to better reflect the latest radar trends and also updated with latest obs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 353 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 Morning surface analysis shows an area of quasi stationary low pressure resides across SW OH as it becomes vertically stacked. A spoke of PVA and area of surface convergence will swing across the region today. This will bring periods of showers to much of the region through the day. There will be some convective element, but really start to transition to stratiform elements. Therefore, not overall impressed with the efficiency these showers will have through the day. However, FFGs remain low in parts of the far east i.e. Martin/Pike counties, but still just below one inch range for even the 1 hour. That said think this will be a longer duration rainfall than 1 hour and not confident we will see widespread issues in these areas given the longer duration rainfall. Given leaned away from issuing a FFA, but will mention the isolated issue in the HWO. This pesky upper level low will push east through the evening into tonight. This will pull the surface low pressure east and subsequently the showers will taper off from west to east through the night. Heights will be on the rise and some clearing could lead to some minor temperatures splits by Friday morning mainly in the western parts of the CWA. The previously mentioned height rises will also usher in warmer 850mb temperatures by Friday afternoon and lead to temperatures 15 to 20 degrees warmer than today. Clouds will likely be on the decrease, but some high clouds will remain particularly in the afternoon on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 404 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 Cyclonic flow will remain locked in place from the southern shores of Hudson Bay into the Tennessee Valley from this weekend well into next week, as upper ridging traverses the Gulf Coast into the western Atlantic and split flow sets up across the western U.S. Net impact for eastern Kentucky will be an unsettled pattern characterized by periods of showers and thunderstorms along with seasonable temperatures, beginning the weekend above normal and falling to near or slightly below normal by mid next week. Quasi-zonal flow Friday night will back southwesterly Saturday as an upper low migrates into Manitoba, sending several upper impulses downstream as far south as the Volunteer State. Isolated showers and storms will develop Friday evening and night, with scattered storms occurring throughout the day Saturday. These should remain rather low-topped as height falls and deep layer shear will be weak along with their primary forcing being driven aloft as an earlier day warm front should be well north of eastern Kentucky by peak heating. More widespread convection will materialize into Sunday as the upper low moves east toward the western Great Lakes and an attendant surface low slides across the upper Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes. An approaching cold front will serve as focus for thunderstorm development through the day into Monday morning. Will have to monitor progression of the boundary for flooding potential Sunday, before a damaging wind threat likely materializes later in the afternoon into the night. This widespread precipitation will knock a few degrees off of temperatures when compared with readings in the low 80s Saturday, as Sunday`s highs top out in the upper 70s. Rain chances will diminish from west to east Monday behind the front, with another round of storms possible Tuesday ahead of a secondary upper wave and front. Dry conditions should return for a portion of midweek before another round of showers looks possible thereafter on the western edge of the slowly eastward meandering upper low. This feature should keep temperatures in check with highs near the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 An area of rain will spread slowly SE, but some drizzle has developed ahead of this at some TAF sites. The more robust area of rain will also have the lower CIGs and VIS therefore will lower most sites IFR through the day, with some already IFR to start the period. This will linger through most of the day before lifting by through the evening, as a surface low and upper level low progress east. A LLJ will kick in and could lead to some gusty winds through the day at around 15 to 20 knots before slackening by this evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...DJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.