Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 051250 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING LONG CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND OR SLEET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WITH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE OF PART OF THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE FORECAST WERE FRESHENED UP WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM IS STILL IN FULL SWING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SNOW AND SLEET STILL EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS SO FAR HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 AND BETWEEN THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I64 CORRIDOR. OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING QUITE A BIT OF SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SNOW JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER. A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN THE WARNING HAVE VERIFIED ALREADY AND IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THAT IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE MOST OR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES MEET WARNING CRITERIA FOR SLEET AND OR SNOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64 CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND APPALACHIANS. AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 3Z TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
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&& $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...AR

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