Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 092338 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 738 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 THE NEXT FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK. DEW POINTS ARE CONTINUING TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR USHERS IN. AS SUCH...CLOUDS ARE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY THIS LOW...THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO PRODUCE FOG. EVEN LATEST NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW. WILL LIKELY MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT DEW POINTS AND EXPECTED FOG COVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO TRY TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S ALONG I-64 BUT REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FOG WILL THEN BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT. WHILE FOG IS A GOOD BET OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY LIMIT IT/S EXTENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE NORTH TO MID 60S IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDER AS IT WASHES OUT ON THURSDAY AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THESE AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 A DRY AIR MASS BY SUMMERTIME STANDARDS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AS THE PERIOD STARTS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH UNDER WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT BEHIND A NE CONUS UPPER TROUGH. MODELS SHOW GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS...THIS SUPPORTS WARMING TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND... WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES EASTWARD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CONUS. THE PASSING SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT THE BETTER POP WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. USED POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY ON SUNDAY AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS FALL AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE DETAILS...THEY DO AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...AND SHOW THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE USED THE HIGHEST POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT JUST SHY OF LIKELY CATEGORY DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH AND WITH ENOUGH OVERRIDING MOISTURE THAT LOW POPS WERE STILL WARRANTED IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDER. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR IS BEING USHERED IN TO THE REGION. EXPECT TAF SITES TO BE IN THE CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CONCERNS. FURTHERMORE...THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME OF THE BEST FOG CHANCES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH THESE LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT ALL SITES. AS SUCH...DECIDED TO TREND FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST AND RAISED THE FORECAST TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW UNTIL WE BEGIN TO SEE WHAT DEVELOPS DURING THE NIGHT...SO DID NOT WANT TO ELIMINATE FOG COMPLETELY. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...IT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF IN THE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JMW

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