Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260542 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 142 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 142 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 Forecast is on track, and the only change was a blend of obs into the forecast grids. UPDATE Issued at 905 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017 A few clouds continue to be noted on satellite and area webcams, and model soundings continue to indicate a ribbon of moisture lingering through the night around 800 mb. However, do not expect these few and far between clouds to affect temperatures much overnight. In fact, with dewpoint mixing down deep into the 40s this afternoon, min temps were lowered a few degrees with some of the normally colder valley locations likely sneaking down to 50, or slightly below by morning. No other changes were needed. Have a great night...
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 235 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017 Dewpoints have dropped into the 40s across much of the area, and will little cloud cover many spots will see lows cooler tonight than last night. A weak dissipating cold front will move into the area tonight but not have any real impact on the local weather. A disturbance moving east from the central plains should bring a slight increase in high clouds early Monday morning across the southern part of the area, but again not much of an impact is expected. We will experience below normal highs again on Monday with maximums expected to range from the middle to upper 70s. Temperatures will fall back into the 50s Monday night. An approaching mid level short wave trough and associated cold front will bring an increase in cloudiness along with a chance of showers, mainly well after midnight. Any rain that occurs Monday night should be very light. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 359 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017 Isolated to scattered showers look to be ongoing Tuesday morning as a trailing lobe of mid level energy swings through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A reinforcing shot of cool/dry late June air will build into eastern Kentucky ahead of a 1020 mb surface ridge approaching out of the Midwest. Enough forcing and moisture should linger into the afternoon to spawn some lightning as lapse rates steepen, owing to falling heights and cooler air aloft through the base of the trough. Aforementioned surface ridge will build into the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland region by early afternoon, further making its influence felt into the evening and overnight as skies clear and make way for patchy valley fog development. Following another day of well below normal temperatures Tuesday, warm air advection will ensue for mid-late week as readings warm back into the 80s. Overnight lows will subsequently spike back into the 60s Wednesday night following the recent stretch of 50s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Thursday as surface high pressure shifts into the Atlantic and deep layer southwesterly flow sets up. The most likely scenario for storms on Thursday will be seeing propagation into the Lake Cumberland region off of the Cumberland Plateau. A few storms will be possible in the Bluegrass region as well, but a lack of forcing will in all likelihood preclude much in the way if any activity here. Orographic lift and perhaps a few lingering outflow boundaries from prior convection will serve as the main forcing mechanism through Friday as an upper level high off the southeast U.S. coast keeps height fields fairly steady due to the northwestward displacement of a northern stream upper low near the south central Canadian border. Increasing height falls should occur into the weekend given far enough southward digging of the northern stream upper low. Surface low pressure currently looks to remain in vicinity of the upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, raising question as to whether a cool frontal boundary will be able to propagate south of the Ohio River later in the weekend. Nonetheless, chance PoPs and the return of hot/humid conditions look to be in the offing through at least Saturday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 Outside of a bit of early morning valley fog (not at TAF sites), VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds should be 10kts or less from the west or northwest.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...HAL

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