Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280731 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE QUITE WELL WHEN COMPARING THIS WITH THE UA DATA. THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO WRAP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OFF A SECONDARY LOW STRETCHING SW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HERE IN EASTERN KY WE ARE ENJOYING NW/W FLOW THAT IS USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. GIVEN THIS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE NICE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROP SE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND MAY BE BETTER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE DID KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED AT THIS POINT...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LIFTING FEATURES AND INSTABILITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MEAN EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH MORE APPARENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER/SFC DETAILS AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES. MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENING OUT A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DETAILS AND THEREFORE HOW SENSIBLE WEATHER PLAYS OUT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED SOLUTIONS/GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL DID ALLOW FOR LOWER POPS DURING TIMES OF WEAKER FORCING...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIODS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MCS ACTIVITY DURING A WED-THU TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME BUT HAVE QUESTIONS ON MODELS ABILITY TO DETERMINE EXACT TRACKS OF THESE TYPES SYSTEMS SO FAR OUT IN TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THERE ARE SOME STRATUS SKITING THE EASTERN TAF SITES...AS LOW DEEPENS JUST TO OUR NORTH HAVE KEPT MOST SITES VFR GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE. THERE IS THE A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING AT SME AND LOZ...SO DID OPT TO KEEP THEM DEGRADING TO MVFR VIS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY 13Z ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/DJ AVIATION...DJ

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