Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 020656 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 256 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL SHOWING ITS INFLUENCE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...SKIES WILL MAINLY BE CLEAR AGAIN. MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE RIDGE TOPS. SOME OF THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MOST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS DAWN. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH ONLY A 4 KFT CU LAYER DEVELOPING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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