Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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060 FXUS63 KJKL 280016 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 816 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 816 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017 Went ahead and added the potential for patchy fog across portions of the CWA overnight, given the saturated ground from todays rains, combining with the clearing conditions overnight and light and variable winds. This addition was also reflected in the aviation grids. Also went ahead and updated the near term grids with the latest observations to make sure near current conditions were still well reflected. All changes have been saved and sent to NDFD/web. A new ZFP will be sent out to reflect weather element changes for overnight as well. UPDATE Issued at 632 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017 Updated near term grids to bring them up to speed on current trends. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the temps, dew points, and winds were on track with the current conditions, and also decreased cloud cover over the next few hours to show the ongoing clearing trend. All showers and thunderstorms are now east of the CWA, which was reflected in the ongoing forecast, so no major updates to the pops were needed for this evening. All changes have been saved and sent to NDFD/web, however they were not substantial enough to warrant a new ZFP or HWO. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017 The short term period will be mostly dry, as a strong ridge of high pressure exerts its influence on the region tonight and tomorrow. The ridge will begin to break down late tomorrow afternoon, as a strong area of low pressure aloft begins to move eastward toward the Ohio valley. The ridge, however, is going to be stubborn and will not simply exit the area. The ridge should weaken just enough to allow a warm front to push through the area tomorrow, while keeping an approaching cold front from invading the area Friday night. At this time, the model data is suggesting that our northern counties will see showers and storms Friday night into early Saturday morning, with areas along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80 corridor possibly staying dry. Well above normal temperatures are expected Friday and Friday night, with tomorrows highs maxing out in the low to mid 80s and tomorrow nights lows only falling into the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 445 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017 The models are in fairly good agreement aloft through the long term portion of the forecast. They all depict a strong ridge dominating the southeast portion of the nation while a deep trough digging through the Desert Southwest on Sunday deepens dramatically before lifting into the Central Plains by Monday morning. All the while, the ridge holds fast over eastern Kentucky. However, the shear size of the upper low at this point will influence our CWA with very fast southwest flow at mid levels and a node of energy lifting through the area early Monday. The models are not quite in synch with each other during the time with the GFS tending to outrun the ECMWF throughout the transition while the CMC is more supportive of the latter. Accordingly, will lean toward the ECMWF solution through Monday. In the wake of this large low lifting through the Great Lakes, more zonal and still fast flow will remain over Kentucky through midweek with the bulk of any energy staying north of the area. Reamplification of this pattern begins by Thursday morning with a large trough developing further east into the Southern Plains - but some sig differences in the models at this point. Accordingly, confidence is low toward the end of the extended. Sensible weather will feature a very warm weekend across the CWA south of a well defined warm front and in the midst of a surge of humid air from the south. Cannot rule out a stray storm during this time, but the bulk of the area will be dry so will keep PoPs below 14 percent through Sunday. The systems cold front them arrives that evening with another round of storms expected, though winds will be breezy throughout the day and into the night making for gusty showers to go along with the potential for strong thunderstorms. Much cooler weather follows this boundary along with drier conditions. A developing warm front then lifts back toward the area with a renewed threat of showers and storms for Wednesday afternoon. Depending on the eventual solution, showers and storms could be ongoing through Wednesday night and Thursday as a deep low to the southwest pumps moisture over that front across our area. Did make some minor adjustments to temperatures each night - particularly for ridge to valley differences Sunday night and again Tuesday night. Also, fine tuned the PoPs early on, mainly to lift them further north similar the ECMWF rather than the SuperBlend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 812 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017 Conditions continue to improve this evening after a cold front and associated precipitation moved through this morning and afternoon. Clouds are clearing out quickly as drier air takes hold, and winds will continue to calm as we lose daytime heating. The main concern overnight will be fog development, given the saturated ground and the combination of clearing conditions and light winds overnight. Generally expect fog to impact both valleys and ridges, however fairly low confidence on actual impacts at each TAF site. Based on the NAM12, LOZ and SME have the best chance to see predominate IFR conditions late tonight into Friday morning, but the remaining sites could see anywhere from no direct impacts, to MVFR or IFR. Will continue to monitor and update as needed as fog begins to develop overnight. Fog should lift after 12Z and quickly dissipate, leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds may increase throughout the afternoon with gusts between 15 and 20 knots possible by 18Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JMW

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