Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 280150 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. THE AREA NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, THIS AREA IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND SHOULD BE INTO TENNESSEE BY MIDNIGHT. THE AREA OF STORMS IN JOHNSON AND MARTIN REMAIN SUB SEVERE AND THEY WITH BE MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY 11 PM. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IN ENTERING FLEMING COUNTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORMS WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 2 AM. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FAR MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING THAN WHAT WE SAW EARLIER...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL UNSTABLE. LOOKING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THERE IS STILL UNSTABLE AIR UPSTREAM TRYING TO ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. BASED ON TRENDS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WARNING TO BE ISSUED. AFTER COORDINATION WITH LMK AND SPC...HAVE LEFT THE TORNADO WATCH IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WAS ONGOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT HAS BEEN LARGE HAIL...WITH REPORTS UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE SO FAR. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL AT ALL TODAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY FOR HIGH POPS...BLENDING TO POPS FOR TONIGHT WHICH ARE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE THREAT OF PRECIP PERSISTS THE LONGEST TONIGHT BEFORE STABILIZATION TAKES PLACE FROM NW TO SE. SEVERE WX THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SHEAR. THE SHEAR WILL BECOME LESS DIRECTIONAL AND MORE SPEED AS TIME GOES BY. IN ADDITION...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS. THESE FACTORS WOULD SUGGEST HAIL CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH STORMS BEING MORE SURFACE BASED LATE IN THE DAY NOW...WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOES STILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE GETTING SCOURED AWAY ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MORE PROBABLE IN THE NE PART OF THE AREA WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST. MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY PREVENT ANY PRECIP IN OUR FAR SW...AND WILL LIKELY PREVENT THUNDER ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP WILL DIE OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS HEATING IS LOST AND THE MID LEVEL CAP STRENGTHENS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA TO FLORIDA. THERE IS AN UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE BACK END OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY QUASI STATIONARY AND WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT TO POSSIBLY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORT WAVES MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THIS UPPER HIGH IN PLACE...THE SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE IT WILL BE SWELTERING AND DRY OUT WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CORRECTION DUE TO ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. ON THE DAYS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...THE STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FAR MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING THAN WHAT WE SAW EARLIER...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL UNSTABLE. LOOKING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. FOR THE TAF STATIONS...ONLY HAVE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. EXPECTING SOME FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT DUE TO ALL OF THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...TOMORROW AFTER 18Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...JJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.