Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 010731 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 331 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 ZONAL FLOW RESIDES ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ZONAL FLOW FOR TODAY WILL MEAN A QUIETER DAY. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECPITATION TODAY...HI RES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING TODAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN`T SEEM TO MATCH UP TO WHAT THE HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING. GIVEN THE RECENT HISTORY OF HI RES MODELS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH CONVECTION...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CORRIDOR OF POPS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH MODEST PW`S AROUND 1.7 AND VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (>15KFT) POTENTIAL MAY EXISTS FOR SOME PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. FORTUNATELY...STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY. THE SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE TIED TO THE PEAK INSTABILITY HOURS FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DYING OFF. THIS WILL YIELD A QUITE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CLEARING SKIES COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT WE MAY KEEP ENOUGH WIND AGAIN TO LIMIT IT TO SOME DEGREE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL SPARK SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. THESE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH MODEST 30-40KT BULK SHEAR VALUES...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS FOR SOME LINEAR STORM SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DYING OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY. WHILE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG OUT OF THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...KAS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.