Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 141156 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 656 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 656 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2018 Single digit temperatures continue across much of eastern Kentucky early this morning, with the exception being in the valleys of far eastern Kentucky where low clouds have hung tight through the night and kept temperatures in the lower teens. Moisture should be shallow enough to negate anything other than a stray flurry or two, so will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Low clouds should gradually break up this morning in the higher terrain as high clouds stream in from the west through the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 354 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2018 Low stratus across the Virginia and Tennessee borders will continue to diminish as winds veer further east/northeast this morning and drier air filters in courtesy of a 1040 mb surface ridge. Despite some light downsloping west of the higher terrain and meager warm air advection/height rises, the combination of recent snowpack and cyclonic flow underneath a residual cold dome will only allow for a warmup into generally the mid 20s this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies early will be somewhat tainted by high clouds streaming in from a lower Mississippi Valley shortwave trough, but sunshine will nonetheless be abundant compared to yesterday. A digging shortwave/upper low from Manitoba and western Ontario riding through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes will bring thickening/lowering clouds overnight, complete with a minor uptick in temperatures for Monday as its attendant surface low drags a meager warm front across the Bluegrass region. This may bring a few light snow showers Monday morning with accumulations of a tenth of an inch or two not out of the question as upper support is further enhanced by the left exit region of an upper jet streak. Any precipitation should lift well north of Interstate 64 Monday afternoon, prior to an arctic front plowing southeast toward eastern Kentucky later in the afternoon. While better snow chances will hold off until Monday evening/night, the Bluegrass region will again see the best chances for an additional dusting to couple tenths of an inch by dusk. With surface temperatures looking to warm into the mid 30s to near 40 Monday afternoon, could see a brief stint of some rain mixing in. However, a relatively dry boundary layer will undergo cooling due to wet-bulb effects as initial precipitation/virga falls, therefore likely keeping the brunt of any precipitation in the form of snow as the remainder of the atmospheric column stays below freezing. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2018 The extended period of the forecast will feature very cold temperatures and a good chance of accumulating snow at the beginning of the period and much warmer temperatures and a good chance for rain at the end of the period. The coldest period will be from Tuesday through Wednesday, when temperatures will be in the upper teens and 20s during the day, and mostly in the single digits Tuesday night and Wednesday night. A gradual warm up should begin to take place on Thursday, when highs are forecast to max out in the lower 30s for most locations. The warming will continue into the weekend, with highs on Friday expected to be in the low to mid 40s for most locations, and in the 50s for Saturday. A fast moving clipper type system will bring snow to eastern Kentucky Monday night and Tuesday. Another area of low pressure may then bring rain to the area Saturday night. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2018 Lingering MVFR ceilings at SJS and along the Virginia border will break up this morning as any residual snow flurries come to an end. VFR conditions will then hold in place today and tonight as high pressure remains overhead, keeping veering northeasterly to southeasterly winds at 5 knots or less. Clouds will lower and thicken this evening through tonight with light snow showers possible from SYM to points northwest by 12Z.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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