Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 151554 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1154 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday - just not as warm as it has been. - A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to the area through this afternoon, lingering into the early evening in the southeast. Rainfall will generally be a quarter to half of an inch. - A deeper passing system aloft brings a threat of some rain/snow showers on Monday. - Hard freeze conditions Monday night could kill any cold sensitive vegetation that has emerged prematurely due to early season warmth. && .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1154 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2024 A cold front extends through the OH Valley region north of the CRW to HTS corridor and generally just north of I-64 to near LEX to near BWG. After a lull in shower activity behind the convection overnight and early this morning, radar returns have been increasing ahead of the front across northern sections of eastern KY as well as in the Cumberland Valley vicinity. As we approach peak heating this afternoon ahead of the front, a continued uptick in coverage of convection is anticipated and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out southeast of the boundary. Further north for areas near and north of the position of the frontal zone in the northwesternmost 4 counties chances for thunder have been removed. UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2024 The pcpn lull will continue for a couple more hours before convection likely starts up again ahead of the approaching cold front. Have adjusted the forecast for the latest radar and CAMs trends with PoPs, as well as the current obs and tendencies for the T/Td grids. These minor updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 440 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2024 08Z sfc analysis shows the prefrontal trough, and most of the storms associated with it, has moved to the southeast of Kentucky. However, the larger weather system`s cold front is still off to the northwest and this will support some redevelopment of convection into the morning hours. The rain has leveled the temperatures through the area with readings in the mid 50s to lower 60s while dewpoints are generally within a degree or two of those values. With the departure of the MCS, winds have settled back to light and variable most places through eastern Kentucky with a return to south winds of 5 to 10 mph expected through dawn before the cold front arrives, while the sky remains cloudy. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict general zonal flow well downstream of a deep closed low trough over the northern Baja Peninsula. Within this west to east air stream at mid levels, some weak energy will pass by aloft, but the better concentration stays north of the Ohio Valley through Saturday. Late in the period, a large and deep trough will head into the Ohio Valley from south central Canada and start to drop heights over Kentucky by 00Z Sunday. On account of the small model spread aloft through the short term, the blended NBM solution used as the starting point for the grids, but with the inclusion of the latest CAMs guidance for PoPs today into tonight. Sensible weather will feature more showers and storms around as cooler conditions prevail but still above normal temperatures into the weekend. The best shot at more storms will come with the cold front that eventually drags through this part of the state later this afternoon. Low clouds and light rain will linger into the night along with areas of fog developing in the post frontal subsidence. Some sunshine should return for Saturday, though temperatures will be similar to today on account of the arrival of a cooler air mass from a passing area of high pressure. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to fine tune the PoPs into the evening with the inclusion of the latest CAMs details. Temperatures and dewpoints were mostly left alone given the limited potential for radiational cooling or enhanced drying. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2024 Surface high pressure will be in place to start the period. Upper- level zonal flow will keep moderate temperatures across the area. Overnight lows Saturday night will be in the low to mid-40s with d anytime highs for Sunday expected to be in the upper-50s to lower- 60s. A dry cold front will cross through the area Sunday afternoon. This will usher colder temperatures back into the area with below average temperatures expected to persist through the early part of next week. The upper-level trough responsible for the cold front is still forecast to pivot toward the CWA and bring the potential for rain/snow mix to the region for Monday afternoon. The areas mostly likely going to see PoP will be along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Models continue to hint at another chance of precipitation on Tuesday as another weak cold front will move through the region Tuesday afternoon. Surface high pressure returns for the middle of next week with temperatures gradually increasing through the week. The active period continues as models bring another system through the region for the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2024 In general, VFR conditions are expected through much of the morning, with reductions to MVFR and momentary IFR as showers and thunderstorms move through later in the day. MVFR CIGs will become increasingly more prevalent late in the morning and during the afternoon, though, with the potential for IFR conditions accompanying showers and possible storms for the afternoon. Continued low CIGs follow into the evening and overnight for most locations along with areas of fog developing pre-dawn, Saturday. Winds, outside of storms, will be from the south to southwest at 10 kts or so most of the morning. However, with any thunderstorm, they could exceed 30 kts. The winds then become westerly and northwesterly prevailing during the afternoon as the cold front passes across the area - but with speeds generally at or below 10 kts - sustained. Light northwesterly to north winds follow for tonight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GREIF

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