Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301846 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING...THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR CONVECTION HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE VA BORDER ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO CU AND MIX OUT...FROM THE TN VALLEY REGION AND FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY... WITH REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY. && .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A 20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...HAL

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