Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210800 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 400 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017 The latest surface map features low pressure centered across southern Minnesota, with a cold front aligned south, nearly along the Mississippi River. Aloft, an upper level low is displaced just slightly west of the surface low, with a stout short wave trough lifting northeast into western Illinois. An upper level ridge is retreating towards the Eastern Seaboard. So far, the mesoscale has been the main convective driver across eastern Kentucky, as yet another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms affected portions of the area earlier, mainly driven by outflow boundary interaction. Currently, some scattered to numerous showers, with an isolated rumble of thunder, is moving in from the Tennessee Valley. This uptick in activity is mainly in response to a low level jet building in from the southwest, but so far, the convection has been light. Most of the model guidance suggests more intense convection to build in before dawn; however, am a little skeptical based on the latest radar and satellite trends. The cold front will gradually push east today, with plenty of moisture advecting northward out ahead it. This should lead to numerous to widespread showers, with some thunderstorms, although cloud cover will limit instability, as highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. High PWATs for this time of year will continue to bring an isolated flash flood threat; however, given the isolated nature of the heavy rainfall coverage over the past few days, will forego a watch at this time. The front will shift to the east late tonight, with showers and a few storms diminishing from west to east. Cooler air will move in behind the front, with lows in the mid to upper 50s. A few showers may linger in the far east into Monday morning, before drying up by the afternoon. Highs will be in low to mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017 The long term discussion will follow shortly.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017 VFR conditions will rule initially, as a cold front remains well to our west. Through dawn, an increasing low level jet will likely bring some MVFR ceilings in from the west. Scattered showers will become more numerous during the day on Sunday as a cold front gradually advances east across the Commonwealth. Thunderstorms will likely be more scattered in nature. The front will move through after 00z, with winds becoming more southwest behind the frontal passage, and showers diminishing from west to east. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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