Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280748 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 348 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 DEEP TROUGH AXIS IS WORKING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH AROUND DAWN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOWS DOWN IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE RIDGES STAY UP IN THE LOW 20S. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW AND MID 50S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL MEAN PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIRLY FAST ZONAL FLOW...AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IT IS NOT SURPRISING THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE SHORT WAVES THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MS VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS KY SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY ALMOST AREA WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AFTER THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SYSTEM...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM AS WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE AGAIN SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND THUS QUESTIONS ON WHEN TO REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THE FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL YIELD SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CHANCE OR LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW A FAIRLY MILD WEEK WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AND CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN. SKIES WILL THEN TURN CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY DUSK. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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